NFL Expansion: Why Ottawa Is Canada’s Best Bet for a Team

Global Markets Program (GMP)

• Canada Joins the Map: In 2024, the Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks were granted official marketing rights in Canada—marking a clear shift toward market integration.

• Proven Growth Model: GMP allows teams to grow fanbases, sell merchandise, and activate sponsorships over five years—not just during one-off games.

• Toronto’s Lesson, Ottawa’s Opportunity: The Bills’ brief Toronto Series (2008–2013) fell flat—not due to a lack of fans, but because the team didn’t truly belong to the city. GMP corrects that with sustained, local engagement.

NFL Expansion Viability Index (NEVI)

Our NEVI model ranks cities based on 10 weighted categories. These include market size, stadium readiness, fan engagement, corporate backing, and strategic league value.

Other Contenders

San Antonio and Calgary represent Ottawa’s strongest benchmarks for different reasons:

• US Benchmark for Expansion: San Antonio is the largest US city without an NFL team. It’s also a frequent frontrunner in talks about expansion—making it the American standard for comparison.

• Top Domestic Contender: Calgary boasts a booming oil-and-gas economy, a strong sports culture, and a rising population—making it Ottawa’s top Canadian rival.

• Comparable Market Profiles: All three cities fall into the mid-sized market category, offering balanced conditions for expansion without the downsides of oversaturation.

🏙️ Market Size and Regional Fan Reach

With a 9/10 NEVI score for market size, Ottawa offers a unique combination of population density, regional influence, and economic positioning.

• Comparable to US Expansion Cities: Ottawa’s metro population (1M+) mirrors other recent NFL expansion cities like Jacksonville and Las Vegas.

• Cross-Border Fan Reach: The city can draw support from nearby hubs like Toronto (6.2M), Montreal (2M), and even Northern US states like New York and Vermont.

• Affluent Demographic: Ottawa presents a financially strong fan base, with a median household income well above the national average and strong tech-sector employment.

📺 Fan Engagement: A Nation Obsessed With Football

Earning a 9/10 NEVI score for fan interest, Ottawa benefits from a nationwide obsession with the NFL—second only to Canadian hockey.

• Massive National Viewership: Canada boasts 14.5M NFL fans, with 8M+ tuning into the Super Bowl and 700K+ watching regular-season games weekly.

• Local Football Culture: Ottawa’s CFL team, the Redblacks, draws strong attendance and community support—showcasing existing demand for pro football.

• Eastern Canada Access Point: Its central location makes Ottawa the natural hub for fan travel from across Eastern Ontario and Quebec.

💼 Corporate Backing: Tech, Government, and Big-Name Brands

Ottawa earns a 9/10 NEVI score for corporate support, driven by its $76B GDP and status as a hub for both tech and federal government institutions.

• Big Tech + Big Government: Home to Shopify, Nokia, and hundreds of high-growth startups, plus Canada’s federal agencies—ideal conditions for sponsorships.

• Global Branding Appeal: As the nation’s capital, Ottawa’s brand alignment opportunities resonate nationally and internationally.

• Event Hosting Muscle: Corporate partnerships could fund and promote major gameday experiences and year-round team activations.

🌍 Economic Impact: Swift-Level Potential

Scoring a 9/10 NEVI in economic opportunity, Ottawa has the infrastructure and tourism market to turn NFL Sundays into year-round citywide revenue drivers.

• Existing $2.2B Tourism Base: Ottawa already sees consistent travel for government, education, and culture. NFL events would only amplify this.

• Proven U.S. NFL Impact: Cities like Dallas and Vegas generate $600M+ annually from NFL-related economic activity.

• Canadian Case Study: Taylor Swift’s 6-night Eras Tour in Toronto brought in $282M, including $141M in visitor spending and $40M in tax revenue. This proves the spending power of large-scale entertainment in Canada.

💸 Revenue Power: Tickets, Merch, and Canadian Media

With an 8/10 NEVI score for revenue potential, Ottawa stands out as a financially sound market—bolstered by strong income levels, loyal fans, and untapped media deals.

• Ticket Prices? No Problem: With an average NFL ticket running for around $120, Ottawa’s affluent households are more than able to fill seats. They already do for the NHL and CFL.

• Millions in Merch: Canadian fans already spend heavily on U.S. NFL gear. A hometown team would redirect that loyalty—and those dollars—into local merchandise sales.

• New Media Deals: A Canadian franchise opens the door to new broadcast rights with TSN, RDS, and other Canadian networks eager to capitalize on NFL content.

🏟️ Stadium Infrastructure: Ottawa’s Biggest Hurdle

Ottawa scored 7/10 in NEVI for stadium readiness—but recent developments point to real potential.

• Current Gaps: Ottawa lacks a stadium that meets modern NFL standards. Building one would need $1B–$2B in investment.

• Viable Locations: Potential stadium locations include LeBreton Flats (central, accessible), Kanata (existing sports hub), and Gatineau (cross-provincial appeal).

• Shared Momentum with NHL: The Ottawa Senators’ proposed move to a new downtown arena at LeBreton Flats demonstrates growing civic and corporate commitment to major-league infrastructure.

• NFL Implications: If the city can rally support for a billion-dollar hockey arena, it could also leverage the same mechanisms—public-private partnerships, corporate sponsorships, and political coordination—for a future NFL venue. A multi-use or adjacent facility model could reduce costs and speed up development timelines.

With a 9/10 NEVI score for Strategic League Value, Ottawa is perfectly positioned to fulfill the NFL’s global ambitions—while strengthening its North American footprint.

• Global Games Set the Standard: The NFL has expanded aggressively into international markets. London (since 2007), Frankfurt, Munich (2022+), and Mexico City all draw massive fan bases and media deals.

• Yet Still No Permanent Team: While Toronto hosted a handful of Buffalo Bills games, Canada has never had a franchise of its own—despite a massive NFL fan base and top-tier viewership numbers.

• Ottawa’s Unique Advantage: As the capital, Ottawa offers national prestige, a diplomatic bridge to international markets, and a natural extension of the NFL’s brand.

Methodology

The NFL Expansion Viability Index (NEVI) evaluates cities across 10 weighted categories: market size, fan interest, economic strength, stadium feasibility, tourism economy, corporate sponsorship, existing sports competition, NFL expansion fit, public funding, and cross-border appeal. Each factor is scored from 0–10, weighted by relevance in past league expansions, and then totaled to create a final NEVI score out of 100. This data-driven approach objectively compares potential expansion cities—measuring which markets are best equipped to support a successful, long-term NFL franchise.

Additional Sources:

• • Taylor Swift concerts to generate $282M economic boost for Toronto: report, CBC.
  • NFL Canada Takes “The Huddle” Nationwide, Yahoo!Finance.
  • Buffalo Bills to cease playing home games in Toronto, CBC.
  • The NFL is Planning a Major Expansion. Here’s What Business Leaders Can Learn from Its Playbook, Inc.com.
  • NFL’s Global Markets Program Adds Four New Clubs and Five New Markets in 2024, NFL.com.
  • What if the NFL expanded to 100 teams? Barnwell picks ideal cities, ESPN.
  • NHL Commissioner says new downtown Ottawa arena could “breed a whole new economy,” CBC.
  • NFL’s Global Markets Program Adds Four New Clubs and Five New Markets in 2024, NFL.com.