March Madness Upsets by Round – What Round Produces the Most Upsets?
The insane number of March Madness upsets each year is what makes the NCAAB Division 1 Tournament so exciting! But what round produces the most surprising wins?
We collected data from all tournament editions since 2003 to find out. Let’s explore the numbers together to find out what March Madness round produces the most upsets.
Key Insights
- The first two rounds are almost identical in terms of upsets. The first round of the NCAA Tournament has an upset percentage rate of 20.02%,compared to 19.89% for the second round.
- The Sweet Sixteen actually leads the way in upset percentage. Upsets have hit in the Sweet 16 round of March Madness at a 21.02% percentage rate. The Elite Eight isn’t far behind at 18.18%
- Don’t expect upsets in the final weekend of March Madness. There have been eight upsets since 2003 in the Final Four and National Championship games. We’ve seen just two Championship Games upsets in the last 25 years.
Total Number of Upsets Per Round in March Madness
Here are the percentage and total number of March Madness upsets per round since 2003, and we explain our methodology below:
| Round | Total Upsets (Total Games) | Upset % |
|---|---|---|
| First Round | 141 (704) | 20.02% |
| Second Round | 70 (352) | 19.89% |
| Sweet 16 | 37 (176) | 21.02% |
| Elite 8 | 16 (88) | 18.18% |
| Final 4 | 6 (44) | 13.64% |
| Championship Game | 2 (22) | 9.09% |
It’s remarkable how the early rounds consistently produce upsets at a similar rate. In fact, the first two rounds have almost produced the same percentage of upsets in that period of 22 seasons (20.02% and 19.89%, respectively). The Sweet 16 and Elite 8 were also very close (21.02% and 18.18%).
Naturally, there’s a bit of a drop-off in the Final 4 and Championship games, but many of these are too close for an upset to begin with.
Let’s talk about methodology and sources next to provide context for the data, as it can be useful for March Madness betting.
Final Four and Championship Games Methodology and Sources
For Final Four and Championship games, we used the betting lines of the bookies as the starting point. We only found data going back to 2003, which is the reason our study started there.
We only considered an upset a game where the underdog entered the game with +4 points or more in the spread. If the spread was lower than that, we consider the game too close for an upset to be even possible.
That resulted in a total of six upsets in the Final Four, and another two upsets that fit our criteria in the National Championship. Those numbers didn’t change after the 2025 NCAA Tournament, which only had a total of five upsets throughout the entire Tournament!
We used articles on USA Today, Fox Sports, and BoydBets to collect the spread data.
1st, 2nd Round, Sweet 16, Elite 8 Methodology and Sources
Finding spread lines for all games back to 2003 proved to be an impossible task, so we had to improvise for the first rounds. We decided to go by seeds, and only consider an upset games where the difference in seeds is 3 or higher.
We consider games with a smaller difference too close, so we ignored them. We used the official NCAA website for data.
Now that you know what we did, let’s discuss each round separately.
March Madness First Round Upsets
The first two days of the NCAA Tournament are a breeding ground for upsets and highlight the potential March Madness Cinderella teams.
Since 2003, there is an average upset rate of 20.02% in the first round, with a high of 31.25% in 2016. In that year, there were ten upsets in the opening round over Thursday and Friday. One #2 seed fell, along with a #3, #4, two #5 seeds, three #6 seeds, and two #7 seeds. The biggest upset was #15 Middle Tennessee taking down #2 Michigan State by a score of 90-81.
It should also be noted that 2016 featured the first #1 seed to be eliminated in the first round as #16 UMBC pounded #1 seed Virginia to make NCAA Tournament history!
However, 2025 was an unusually chalky NCAA Tournament. There were just five upsets overall in the Tournament, although three came in the first round. The 9.3% upset rate in the 2025 first round was the lowest since 6.25% in 2007.
March Madness Second Round Upsets
The second round is just below first round in percentage of March Madness upsets. We have a 19.89% rate, which equals 70 upsets in total since 2003.
The record here came in 2021, with nine total upsets in that round. #8 Loyola Chicago defeated took down the first #1 seed of the tournament, Illinois, by a score of 71-58 to lead the second-round upsets that year.
However, there was one lone upset in the second round in 2025. Arkansas took out St. John’s when they were underdogs between 5-6 points.
It’s still a very dangerous round, with many favorites of the best March Madness betting sites going home before the Sweet 16.
March Madness Sweet 16 Upsets
The average upset rate actually rises to 21.02% for the Sweet 16, with 2023 especially nasty for the favorites. Four out of the eight games in that season produced upsets, but it has dropped to 12.5% in 2024, and no upsets in 2025.
Still, the favorites should be very careful in this round nowadays!
March Madness Elite 8 Upsets
The Elite Eight has produced a slightly lower upset rate at 18.18%. In 2023, 2014, and 2011, we had two out of four upsets each, making these the most productive years for upsets. In 2023, three of the four games were upsets!
However, there was just one upset in 2024, and none in 2025. This is one of the safer rounds for the big guns!
March Madness Final Four Upsets
There’s a drop off in the Final Four to 13.64%, because many of the games are too close to produce an upset based on our criteria. But in 2025, there was one such upset as Houston beat Duke despite being underdogs of 4.5-5.5 points.
March Madness Championship Game Upsets
The Championship Game has produced the least number of upsets, with only two teams overcoming a 4-point spread or higher to win (9.09%). That happened in 2003 and 2021, but it must be mentioned that 10 of the 21 years we checked were too close for an upset to be possible because the point spread was very close.
For example, Florida beat Houston in 2025, but the Gators were only favored by about a point. This game couldn’t produce an upset by definition since it was considered almost a coin flip.
What Years Produced the Most March Madness Upsets Since 2003?
| Year | Number of Upsets |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 |
| 2014, 2022 | 17 |
| 2010 | 16 |
| 2006, 2011 | 15 |
2021 was the wildest year so far, producing a total of 19 upsets! We saw 9 in the first round, and the trend continued until the final where Baylor blew out Gonzaga by 16 points, despite entering the game as a 4.5-point underdog.
2014 and 2022 produced 17 upsets each, closely followed by 2010 (16), as well as 2006 and 2011 (15 each). Overal, 18 of the 21 years in our study produced at least 10 upsets, so you can except a lot of action every year!
How to Spot March Madness Upsets?
If you’re looking to bet on March Madness underdogs, it’s best to get it out of the way in the first two rounds. There is a high level of volatility over these first four days of the NCAA Tournament. For example, look at the 5-12 and 6–11 games for a first-round upset. Since 1985, #12 seeds have beaten #5 seeds 35.3% of the time, while #11 seeds have won 40.4% of the time over a #6 seed. The top four seeds will usually get a scare in the first round, but they usually pull it out.
You can also use AI tools to go through the current data and gives you a prediction. This does a lot of the work for you, and makes things easier, considering the sheer number of games you’re trying to handicap. Let the technology do the work for you!
