Most Likely March Madness 2026 Cinderella Teams

Kansas Jayhawks (+7000)

• • Region: East
  • Seed: 4th

The Jayhawks are no strangers to making deep runs in March, having made the NCAA Tournament every year since 1989. KU’s 35-year streak is the longest active streak in college basketball.

LET’S DANCE. pic.twitter.com/bbDGZwaJ7C

— Kansas Men’s Basketball (@KUHoops) March 15, 2026

Bill Self took over as the Jayhawks’ coach in 2003 and led KU to two National Championships, winning March Madness in 2008 and 2022. Counting their vacated 2018 Final Four run, Self has led the Jayhawks to at least the Elite Eight or further nine times in his tenure.

An undeniable Blue Blood in college basketball, KU is listed at +7000 odds to win this year’s tournament, making them a valuable 2026 NCCA Tournament sleeper.

Record: 23-10

KU finished the regular season 23-10, good enough for third in the Big 12. They were especially impressive in Lawrence, racking up a 13-2 record at home. The Jayhawks were 5-6 on the road, though, and 12-6 in conference play.

As one of the top seeds in the conference, KU did not have to play in the first two rounds of the Big 12 tournament. They narrowly beat TCU 78-73 in the Quarterfinals but fell flat in their 69-47 defeat to Houston in the Semifinals.

Star Player:

The Jayhawks’ best player is Freshman guard Darryn Peterson, who averaged 19.8 PPG in his 22 starts this season. Peterson missed a third of KU’s games this year, though, and he has been widely criticized for his availability or lack thereof.

Their next highest scorers are Tre White (senior) and Flory Bidunga (sophomore), who averaged 13.8 and 13.5 PPG, respectively. White and Bidunga are great complementary pieces, but KU needs Peterson to play significant minutes to have a chance at a deep run.

Verdict:

KU struggled against top teams this year, with nine of its losses coming against Quad 1 opponents. On the bright side, the Jayhawks went 14-1 against Quad 2 or lower opponents and should tear through the early part of their bracket this March.

If Peterson is healthy, the Jayhawks can make a deep run this year. Without Peterson, though, KU lacks the firepower to stand with the top teams. I don’t expect them to win the tournament, but they can certainly go a lot further than the odds suggest.

Wisconsin Badgers (+8000)

• • Region: West
  • Seed: 5th

My top 2026 March Madness Cinderella team in the West is the Wisconsin Badgers. Wisconsin enters the NCAA Tournament as a #5 seed with an opening round matchup against #12 High Point.

THE BADGERS GO INTO MACKEY ARENA AND TAKE DOWN NO. 15 PURDUE 😲

Wisconsin made 18 THREES 🎯

(📸 @BadgerMBB) pic.twitter.com/EcZJ7sUmun

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) March 7, 2026

The Badgers are 10-point favorites in Round One at the top March Madness betting sites. At -490, they have an implied win probability of 83.05%.

Wisconsin’s path will get tough quickly, though, with a likely matchup against #4 Arkansas in the Second Round. They could face a number one seed as early as the Sweet 16 with a potential matchup against #1 Arizona.

Record: 24-10

Wisconsin finished the regular season 24-10, the fifth-best record in the Big Ten. The Badgers were just 9-8 against Quad 1 opponents and went 15-2 against everyone else.

In the Big Ten tournament, Wisconsin was the #5 seed and opened with a game against #12 Washington. The Badgers took down the Huskies and then upset #4 Illinois. However, they fell short in their 68-65 loss to #1 Michigan in the Semis.

Star Player:

Nick Boyd and John Blackwell formed one of the highest-scoring backcourt duos in college basketball this season. Boyd averaged 20.6 PPG, while Blackwell was not far behind at 19.0 PPG. They are both upperclassmen as well, and their experience could give the Badgers an edge this year.

Verdict:

Their ability to beat up bad teams could give Wisconsin a chance to build momentum in the early rounds of the tournament before the competition ramps up. Wisconsin also beat Purdue to end the regular season before the Boilermakers went on a run to win the Big Ten tournament.

This team can be dangerous with enough confidence on their side, so I expect a strong performance.

North Carolina Tarheels (+25000)

• • Region: South
  • Seed: 6^th

Like the Jayhawks, the North Carolina Tar Heels are one of the unquestioned Blue Bloods in college basketball. UNC earned a sixth seed in this year’s tournament and is listed at +25000 odds to win it all this year, which is enough for me to consider them a big sleeper.

🚨 TIP TIME IS SET 🚨

🗓️ Thursday, March 19
⌚️ 6:50 PM ET
📺 TNT
🔗 https://t.co/EseaeOrtHc pic.twitter.com/zV2V4zjhpM

— Carolina Basketball (@UNC_Basketball) March 16, 2026

The Tar Heels went on a surprise run in 2022, making it all the way to the Championship as an eighth-seed before losing to #1 Kansas. With another talented roster this season, they have the makings of a 2026 NCAA Cinderella team.

UNC has not made it past the Sweet 16 since, and they face a tough matchup in the First Round against VCU. The Tar Heels are favored by 2 points, and a win against a strong opponent could fuel another deep tournament run.

Record: 24-8

UNC was 24th in NET Rating this season, going 24-8 in the regular season. All eight of their losses were against Quad 1 opponents. On the bright side, the Tar Heels went 18-0 at home this year and were 18-0 against Quad 2 or lower teams.

The Tar Heels have plenty of motivation, too, after a disappointing one-and-done performance in the ACC tournament. UNC lost its first and only matchup in the tourney against Clemson, 80-79.

Star Player:

North Carolina’s chances of making a deep run start and end with Freshman forward Caleb Wilson. The 6’10 Wilson led the Tar Heels in points (19.8 PPG), rebounds (9.4 RPG), assists (2.7 APG), steals (1.5 SPG), and blocks (1.4 BPG). Experienced upperclassmen like Henri Veesaar and Seth Trimble also need to step up.

Verdict:

The Tar Heels do not have an easy path as a sixth seed, but they have overcome the odds before. Pinning their March Madness hopes on a freshman like Wilson is risky. However, UNC has plenty of veteran leadership around Wilson to go on another Cinderella run this year.

Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (+100000)

• • Region: Midwest
  • Seed: 11th (First Four)

My top NCAA tournament sleeper in the Midwest is Miami (Ohio). The RedHawks were the only team in the country to go undefeated in the regular season. However, they lost 87-83 in their first game of the MAC Tournament.

MIAMI (OH) WINS OT THRILLER VS OHIO TO CAP UNDEFEATED REGULAR SEASON 🤯🚨

31-0 FOR THE REDHAWKS!! pic.twitter.com/AkFD8CLPGi

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) March 7, 2026

Luckily for Miami Ohio fans, the RedHawks earned an at-large bid despite not winning their conference. They will play SMU in the First Four to earn the 11th seed in the Midwest.

The RedHawks are 7-point underdogs against the Mustangs, and +100000 underdogs to win the National Championship. If Miami can recreate the magic from the regular season, though, the RedHawks can make a deep run in their first tournament appearance since 2007.

Record: 31-1

One of the most disrespected undefeated teams in recent memory, the RedHawks went 31-0 in the regular season. They capped off their undefeated regular season with a 110-108 OT thriller against Ohio.

Unfortunately for Miami, their streak ended in the first game of the MAC Tournament, as they lost 87-83 to UMass.

Racking up 31 consecutive wins is impressive regardless of who you play. However, the RedHawks did not face a single Quad 1 opponent this year and finished just 64th in NET rating as a result. They were 28-1 against their other qualifying opponents.

Star Player:

The RedHawks had seven players, including five guards, who averaged double-digits in the regular season. Senior guard Peter Suder led the team with 14.6 PPG and was second with 4.0 APG. Suder is not afraid of doing the dirty work, either, and was third on the team with 4.6 RPG while tying for the lead with 1.4 SPG.

Verdict:

Miami Ohio was one of the most interesting stories of the regular season as the RedHawks continued to rack up wins. Their loss in the MAC Tournament could have been a blessing in disguise, as it took away the pressure of trying to keep their perfect run going.

Every win from here on out will prove the doubters wrong who said the RedHawks did not deserve to be in the tourney. This can be a powerful motivator, so I expect a few upsets coming from the RedHawks.