- Polymarket to serve as the official prediction market partner to X.
- X to bring data, technologies, and social insights to Polymarket users.
- Predictions markets continue to grow in sports, political, and pop culture markets
The sports predictions markets continue to grow. Recently, Elon Musk’s social media platform X, formerly Twitter, partnered with Polymarket, a crypto-powered prediction market to launch an integrated product to deliver data-driven insights and recommendations.
The companies made the announcement on June 6. The agreement will see Polymarket integrating predictions from posts on X and the insights from Grok. Adding data and opinions will give contextual background for Polymarket’s forecasts.
The deal is said to be the first of a suite of integrations between the two companies.
The prediction market has grown into a staple source of real-time information for many X users,” said Linda Yaccarino,” CEO of X.
“The prediction market has grown into a staple source of real-time information for many X users.” — Linda Yaccarino, CEO of X
What Is Polymarket?
Polymarket, is a decentralized, blockchain-based prediction platform that launched in 2020. It is billed as the world’s largest prediction market. Customers are able to purchase Yes/No contracts on various world events with prices that fluctuate based on market sentiment. The platform became especially popular during the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.
The types of markets available vary across a wide-range of world events from politics, to crypto prices, wars, pop culture, and sports.
Sports contracts can be purchased on the outcome of games, the winner of a series, the winner of a championship or award and more. This is not that dissimilar to sports betting. In fact, the instructions directly from the Polymarket site are worded as if you were making a bet. The Polymarket website instructs players to “Buy Yes or No shares depending on your prediction. Buying shares is like betting on the outcome. Odds shifts in real time as other traders bet.” The second step is called “Place a Bet”.
Polymarket shared the following statement on social media.
“The next information age won’t be driven by the 20th century’s media monoliths – it’ll be driven by markets. Our partnership with X marks a new chapter for truth on the internet. The future of news is optimized for truth, rooted in transparency, and anchored in reality.”
“The next information age won’t be driven by the 20th century’s media monoliths – it’ll be driven by markets. Our partnership with X marks a new chapter for truth on the internet. The future of news is optimized for truth, rooted in transparency, and anchored in reality.” — Polymarket via X.
However, despite offering predictions on many U.S.-related markets, Polymarket is not currently legal in the United States. As a non-registered exchange, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined and barred Polymarket from offering their services to U.S. residents in 2022.
The CFTC found that Polymarket’s event market contracts, each of which is composed of a pair of binary options, constituted swaps under the CFTC’s jurisdiction. Therefore, they can only be offered on a registered exchange in accordance with the CEA and CFTC regulations.
Kalshi Deal Falls Through
As recently as last month, X and Kalshi, a regulated exchange & prediction market, was in discussions to form a similar partnership.
In fact, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour went as far as announcing a partnership between Kalshi and Musk’s xAI company on social media. However, that statement was quickly retracted hours later and the deal never materialized.
X’s deal with Polymarket is a larger integration with the X platform itself. While Kalshi has been expanding its prediction markets in the U.S., Polymarket currently blocks U.S users, but is available internationally.
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