Canelo Charlo Odds

  • Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo has been made official for September 30 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
  • Alvarez will be defending his super-middleweight titles in the bout against Charlo.
  • Jermell’s twin brother, Jermall, was rumored to be Alvarez’s next opponent.

Boxing fans, set your calendars for Saturday, September 30. Canelo Alvarez (59-2-2) vs. Jermell Charlo (35-1-1) was officially announced as a 12-round, super-middleweight bout in Las Vegas, Nevada. According to oddsmakers at BetUS, Alvarez opened as a -200 betting favorite, but he has risen to a -350 favorite this week.

Alvarez did not stay as a -200 betting favorite for very long. The betting public quickly scooped up the opening odds at BetUS. As of July 5, 2023, Alvarez is up to -350, with an implied probability of winning at 77.8%.

We should expect the odds to continue to point in this direction. There is no indication that the public is ready to support Charlo at these odds. Currently, you can bet on Charlo to defeat Alvarez at +250. Bettors that do like Charlo to pull off the upset will likely wait on a better price.

As soon as casual boxing fans begin to bet on this bout, the odds are likely to skyrocket up to greater than -400. Generally, Alvarez demands a premium on his odds to win fights at online bookmakers. This should not come as any surprise against Charlo on September 30, either.

Four Titles On The Line

Alvarez will put his WBA, WBC, WBO, and IBF belts on the line versus Charlo in Las Vegas. Charlo will have to move up to weight classes for this to happen. He boxes in the super-welterweight division, so moving up to 168 pounds is unchartered territory.

Jermall is the twin brother with more power, but Jermell can’t be overlooked by Alvarez’s camp. Jermell is tough to compete with at 154 pounds, but moving up to super-middleweight at 168 pounds could pose issues for the 33-year-old.

In December 2022, Jermell claimed that he might stay at 154 pounds in the super-welterweight division for his entire career. Jumping up two weight divisions to face Alvarez presents significant challenges for his camp.

When asked about remaining at 154 pounds in December, Charlo had this to say to reporters:

“My whole career”, Charlo responded. “I have a twin brother at 160. I have a stablemate [Errol Spence Jr.] at 147. We all comfortably make the weight and whatever happens in the future, I can’t predict. And I’m just ready to get it on as fast as y’all ready to see it.”

Clearly, Charlo did not foresee an opportunity to fight Alvarez. When a payday like this presents itself against Alvarez, no boxer is going to pass on the opportunity. Charlo is boxing in a weight division that he isn’t accustomed to, but he fights “big” for a 154-pound boxer.

The transition to 168 pounds shouldn’t be as tough for Charlo as it would for many other boxers. However, this is still a division that he has never experienced before and the bout is against Alvarez.

Super-Welterweight Titles Vacated?

Charlo is currently in possession of four super-welterweight titles. He has the WBC, WBA, IBF, titles, and most recently beat Brian Castano in May 2022 to take the WBO title. As a result, Charlo is the unified super-welterweight champion of the world.

However, will Charlo be forced to vacate the titles after accepting a match with Alvarez instead of Tim Tszyu (22-0)? The WBO set a September 30 deadline for Charlo to defend his titles against the Aussie.

Charlo had already delayed a fight against Tszyu twice in the past. After breaking bones in his hand last December while training, the bout was put off again. Now, it may never happen at all, as Charlo may be forced to give up the titles after failing to face Tszyu before September 30.

Note that an official statement from the WBO has not been made as of July 5. The WBO is likely just as shocked as everyone else to see this fight between Charlo and Alvarez materialize. Is this the last that we see of Charlo at 154 pounds?

It is reasonable enough to believe that Charlo doesn’t want to drop 14 pounds to go back to super-welterweight following this match. Remaining at 168 pounds may not be in his best interest, either. That being said, losing eight pounds to the middleweight division could be possible.

Why Not Jermall?

Everyone was expecting to hear an official announcement of a fight between Jermall Carlo (32-0) and not Jermell. In fact, as early as June 22, Premier Boxing Champions were in negotiations with Jermall and Alvarez’s camp.

According to Sports Illustrated, Jermall and his team did not believe that he was in the right frame of mind to prepare for a bout against Alvarez. Jermall, who has been dealing with personal issues, along with a long layoff, is not ready to return to the boxing ring.

Jermall has not fought since beating Juan Macias Montiel by unanimous decision on June 19. With the win, Jermall maintained his perfect record, with the next likeliest step a mega-fight against Alvarez.

There is still optimism that a fight between Jermall and Alvarez could happen in the future. If Jermall doesn’t fight before then, he will be going on a three-year-plus layoff. For now, the next-best scenario for Jarmall was having his younger brother fill in to fight Alvarez.

Despite Jermall passing on the Alvarez fight in 2023, Jermell should be able to make a fight out of this bout in September. How quickly Jermell can acclimate to the weight increase will determine how competitive this fight really is in Las Vegas.

As it currently stands at online betting sites, bettors are not confident that Jermell can pull this fight off at 168 pounds against Alvarez.

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Kyle Eve
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Kyle Eve is a seasoned pro of The Sports Geek. Since joining the team in 2012, Kyle, has covered some of the biggest sporting events in the world. From the Super Bowl and World Series to March Madness, the NBA Finals, Kentucky Derby, and many more, Kyle has provided reliable analysis for millions of readers. After dedicating himself to hockey and football in high school, Kyle placed his first sports bet on his 18th birthday. Since then, he has spent his entire adult life devoting himself to becoming the best sports bettor and casino gambler possible. Kyle is from Windsor, ON, Canada

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