Men’s US Open 2026 Tennis Betting Preview: Odds, Best Bets, & Predictions

Carlos Alcaraz (+250)

Alcaraz enters Flushing Meadows as the +250 betting favorite following Sinner’s late withdrawal due to a right-knee injury. With his primary rival officially out of the draw, the path to the trophy has opened up significantly for the 23-year-old Spaniard.

However, backing Alcaraz at these odds comes with a major question mark: match sharpness following a four-month competitive layoff. Before suffering a right-wrist injury at the Barcelona Open in April, Alcaraz was putting together a dominant 2026 campaign.

He opened the year by capturing the Australian Open, completing his Career Grand Slam as the youngest male player in Open Era history. Additionally, he accumulated a 22-3 record (17-2 on hard courts) with additional titles in Qatar and Indian Wells.

Carlos Alcaraz boasts a staggering 88.9% win rate at the US Open (24-3) 😱

No one in the Open Era can match that!

[via Opta Ace] pic.twitter.com/LpAd4ltLEM

— TNT Sports (@tntsports) August 21, 2026

His career resume at the majors is already legendary, boasting seven Grand Slam titles: two Wimbledon crowns (2023, 2024), two French Opens (2024, 2025), one Australian Open (2026), and two US Open titles (2022, 2025).

Alcaraz’s championship pedigree in New York is unquestioned, but stepping straight into a best-of-five Grand Slam without a single summer tune-up event poses a genuine challenge. That being said, with Sinner out of the tournament, Alcaraz’s biggest obstacle at Arthur Ashe Stadium is removed from the equation.

Against the rest of this field, Alcaraz may not need to be at top fitness to oust his foes.

Alexander Zverev (+325)

The 29-year-old German arrives in Flushing Meadows sitting firmly behind Alcaraz on the odds board, but his odds to win the men’s US Open have skyrocketed since Sinner’s exit.

Zverev enjoyed a breakthrough campaign earlier this summer when he finally captured his long-awaited maiden Grand Slam title at Roland Garros, following it up with a run to the Wimbledon final. The German’s overall consistency in 2026 has been superb, holding a 45-12 record (78.9% win rate) and an incredible 18-2 mark in Grand Slams.

The moment Zverev became a Roland-Garros champion!#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/nldGQkOl8Z

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 7, 2026

On hard courts, Zverev compiled a solid 16-6 record during the standard season, reaching semifinals at the Australian Open, Indian Wells, and Miami. His towering serve remains lethal, averaging nearly eight aces per match with a 72% first-serve percentage.

However, Zverev’s recent hard-court form carries a note of caution. Following his Wimbledon final loss to Sinner, Zverev suffered an unexpected early exit at the National Bank Open in Montreal, falling to Tallon Griekspoor in three sets in what he labeled “probably my worst match of the season.”

Despite the brief hiccup, Zverev’s proven physical endurance in best-of-five formats makes him a formidable contender to make another deep run at the site of his 2020 US Open final appearance. That said, everything came together perfectly for him at the French Open, and I don’t foresee him having the same success on a hard surface.

Ben Shelton (+1000)

The betting landscape at Flushing Meadows experienced a massive shift following World No. 1 Sinner’s withdrawal due to a right-knee injury, and that applies heavily to Shelton.

While Alcaraz and Zverev took over as top contenders, no player saw a more dramatic odds surge than Ben Shelton. The 23-year-old American watched his title line shorten dramatically from +2200 down to +1000, for the fourth-best US Open 2026 men’s odds.

Shelton’s rapid rise reflects a standout 2026 campaign where he reached a career-high World No. 6 ranking and compiled a 33-13 overall record (19-6 on hard courts).

He made history this summer by winning four titles across four distinct surfaces in a single season at Dallas (indoor hard), Munich (clay), Stuttgart (grass), and successfully defending his ATP Masters 1000 crown at the Rogers Open in Montreal.

However, questions remain regarding his reliability in best-of-five major formats. Outside of his electrifying 2023 US Open semifinal breakout and an Australian Open quarterfinal, Shelton has consistently struggled to sustain deep Grand Slam runs, frequently suffering early to mid-week exits at Roland Garros and Wimbledon.

BACK-TO-BACK 🏆🏆

Last year it was Toronto. This year, Montreal belongs to Ben Shelton at the National Bank Open presented by Rogers.#NBO26 | @nationalbank pic.twitter.com/cfmgAHMvCt

— Omnium Banque Nationale (@OBNmontreal) August 14, 2026

That said, with Sinner’s section of the draw now wide open, Shelton’s lethal serve and electrifying home-court energy give him a golden opportunity to prove he can overcome his Slam hurdles and capture a maiden major title in New York.