CFTC Releases First Prediction Markets Rules: Terrorism and Assassination Bets Banned

Federal regulators have taken their first major step toward regulating prediction markets. On June 10, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released a proposed rule that would ban contracts tied to terrorism, assassinations, and war.

The proposal is the agency’s first formal effort to create clear rules for the growing prediction markets industry, which allows people to trade contracts based on the outcome of future events.

The CFTC Takes Action

Until now, the CFTC has largely allowed prediction markets to grow without a specific set of rules. The new proposal changes that by outlining what types of event contracts may be allowed and which ones will not be permitted.

Prediction markets have become more popular in recent years. Users can trade contracts on topics ranging from elections to economic data. Because these products fall under the CFTC’s authority, the agency is now moving to establish clearer oversight.

The proposal is also important for the U.S. gambling industry. Prediction markets often resemble sports betting and other forms of wagering, making regulation a key issue for both operators and regulators.

Clear Limits on Certain Contracts

The proposed rule specifically bans contracts connected to terrorist attacks, political assassinations, and acts of war.

Regulators have long worried that these types of contracts could create harmful incentives by allowing people to profit from tragic events. By formally banning them, the CFTC is setting clear limits on what prediction markets can offer.

Many people may see these restrictions as common sense. However, because prediction markets can cover a wide range of events, federal guidance provides significant clarity for platforms and users alike.