As one of golf’s premier tournaments approaches, the 2026 U.S. Open odds have been updated. This year, the spotlight shifts to the difficult Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York. Can Scottie Scheffler find another gear, finally win his first U.S. Open, and complete the career Grand Slam?
In this tournament preview, I break down the latest outright odds, spotlight the leading contenders, and share my best US Open betting predictions.
2026 US Open Golf Odds
The following US Open winner odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +600 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1400 |
| Jon Rahm | +1600 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1800 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1800 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +2000 |
| Cameron Young | +2200 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2800 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +3500 |
| Patrick Reed | +4000 |
| Russel Henley | +4000 |
| Sam Burns | +4000 |
| Wyndham Clark | +4000 |
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+600) is favored to win and finally add all four majors to his resume. According to top golf betting sites, Scheffler has just over 14% implied probability to win outright. He isn’t as red-hot as last season, but Scheffler commands respect in any major.
Rory McIlroy (+1200), the 2011 U.S. Open champion and back-to-back Masters winner, is the second favorite behind Scottie Scheffler. McIlroy has consistently risen to the occasion in big moments this season and is being given a roughly 8% implied chance to win at Shinnecock. S
LIV standouts Jon Rahm (+1600) and Bryson DeChambeau (+3500) are also in the mix, though they trail the two clear favorites. Rahm has the third-shortest odds, with the likes of Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schaueffele, and others trailing. Defending champion J.J. Spaun (+5500) sits among the longshots, with just a 1.70% implied chance to repeat.
You can find up-to-date US Open golf betting odds at Lucky Rebel by navigating to Sportsbook > Golf > US Open 2026 Winner.
US Open Course Analysis: The Challenges of Shinnecock Hills
The test awaiting the players at Shinnecock Hills this week is unlike anything they will face all season, demanding a complete and highly versatile skill set to come out on top. The course plays as a 7,437 yard, par 70, and carries a rich history of producing some of the toughest scoring conditions in championship golf.
When this course last hosted the US Open in 2018, Brooks Koepka lifted the trophy on a winning total of +1 over four rounds, which is a clear reflection of just how severe the test can become. Scoring well here requires a blend of elite ball-striking, patience, a touch of fortune, and crucially, a world class short game. Around Shinnecock, saving pars often carries as much value as making birdies.
Tommy Fleetwood’s final round in 2018 also deserves a mention. He produced a stunning course record of 7 under 63 to finish runner-up, falling just short after missing a short putt on the 18th that would have forced a playoff. It remains one of the most remarkable rounds ever played in a US Open, and it’s difficult to see it being matched this week given the setup.
As for the course itself, while the fairways are relatively generous by US Open standards, missing them still brings severe consequences. The rough is expected to be so penal that it could effectively cost players around half a shot per miss, underlining just how important accuracy off the tee really is.
The real difficulty, however, begins from the fairway. Shinnecock features elevated, heavily contoured greens that can become extremely firm, making it very difficult to control both spin and accuracy. Even well struck approach shots can easily release into difficult positions, and with so much slope and elevation in play, missed greens are inevitable.
That places huge emphasis on patience, discipline, and a strong scrambling ability. Damage limitation becomes a key theme throughout the week, as many holes are expected to play over par.
So, at Shinnecock, avoiding big numbers is often more important than chasing birdies, and even saving bogey at the right time can prove crucial. This really is a seriously tough test, and you don’t always get rewarded for good shots either.
This is the ultimate test in US Open golf. To win here, a player will need a complete, composed, and world-class performance from start to finish, and this is well worth tuning in for!
What attributes suit Shinnecock best?
When building a shortlist for this US Open at Shinnecock Hills, there are a few key traits that matter far more than others. This is a venue where every part of the game is tested, but success really comes down to discipline, precision, and control.
Off the tee, the fairways are relatively generous by US Open standards, but that can be misleading. Missing them still brings immediate punishment, and even slight errors can leave players in deep rough or in awkward positions. Because of that, raw distance is far less important here, and I’d rather lean towards accuracy and shape control over pure power.
There’s no real advantage in “bombing it” this week either, in fact, it can often create more problems than it solves at this course.
The real separation comes from the fairway into the greens. Elite iron play is absolutely essential. Players who consistently hit greens in regulation will naturally create more birdie looks, while those who miss greens regularly will quickly find themselves scrambling for par on difficult run-offs and tightly protected areas. At Shinnecock, those up and downs are far from straightforward.
That’s why scrambling ability also becomes a major factor. If a player is missing greens and failing to get up and down, they can unravel quickly here. It’s very easy to play yourself out of a tournament here.
With windy conditions often a feature, ball flight control is another key piece of the puzzle. Players who can flight their irons down and control trajectory tend to have more success than those who rely on high, towering shots. In general, I also prefer players who shape the ball, predictably faders over drawers tend to offer a bit more control in these conditions, but above all else, reliability is the priority.
This is not a course where you simply aim at pins and attack. It demands intelligent golf, using slopes, landing zones, and angles properly, because the targets are small and precision is everything.
While you do need a steady foundation off the tee, the real key to competing this week is elite iron play and the ability to control your ball in tough conditions. Get that right, and you give yourself a genuine chance to contend.
My selections have been built around exactly that profile of attributes. Four of them were already identified earlier in the season, and I’ve added two more to complete the lineup. Before getting into those final picks, let’s go through the player-by-player guide first, and then we’ll wrap things up with the full squad.
US Open Player by Player Guide
Here’s what I expect from the top 15 players in the PGA Rankings at US Open 2026.
Scottie Scheffler – World Number 1 (+600)
There has been plenty of discussion surrounding Scottie Scheffler’s form this season, and it is fair to say he hasn’t quite reached the extraordinary levels we have seen from him at his very best.
However, it is important to remember that his game is far more likely to improve from here than decline. If he rediscovers that peak level this week, the rest of the field could be in serious trouble.
His tee-to-green game has been the foundation of his rise to world number one, and Shinnecock Hills looks an ideal test for those strengths. The course places a huge emphasis on quality ball-striking, discipline, and long-iron play, all areas where Scheffler excels.
The real question is whether you want to back him at the price. Personally, I would prefer to see slightly stronger form before taking such short odds, even if a return to his best may be just around the corner.
Including Scheffler on a betting card also limits your flexibility elsewhere in such an open championship. That said, strange things happen in golf, and it is worth noting that the final round falls on his birthday. If he brings his best game, he is unquestionably the man they all have to beat.
Rory McIlroy – World Number 2 (+1200)
Rory McIlroy is an obvious contender at Shinnecock Hills, and the course should suit him well enough. While his length off the tee can be an advantage, this isn’t a venue where power alone wins championships.
The firm conditions and deep thick rough place a greater emphasis on precision, bringing much of the field closer together than on a typical PGA Tour setup. Rory is arguably the most talented player in the field, but Shinnecock rewards patience, discipline, and quality approach play rather than relentless aggression. You cannot simply overpower this golf course.
That said, his all round game is strong enough to contend anywhere. As Rory looks for a second major of the season, he deserves plenty of respect. My only hesitation is the price, as this looks a particularly open US Open with several players offering better value opportunities.
Cameron Young – World Number 3 (+200)
Since his victory at the Miami Championship in April, I’ve started to cool slightly on Cam Young’s chances at Shinnecock Hills. Up until that point, he was striking the ball brilliantly and attracting plenty of support from golf tipsters, but I think we may have got ahead of ourselves with him.
There’s no doubt he has the ability to contend here. His length off the tee and overall ball striking profile make him a reasonable fit for the course, and on his day, he can compete with anyone.
However, I don’t think his chances are significantly stronger than several players available at bigger odds, and that’s where the value argument begins to weaken. Young has the talent to go close, but there is no guarantee he plays well here.
Matt Fitzpatrick – World Number 4 (+2000)
It’s already been a big year for Matt Fitzpatrick, and I think he has a huge chance this week. His game is in excellent shape, and he seems to have found the perfect balance between accuracy and power off the tee.
Fitzpatrick is driving the ball with confidence, his iron play looks really sharp, and there are very few weaknesses in his game right now. One of the standout moments of his season was defeating Scottie Scheffler in a playoff, which underlines the level he is operating at.
Around the greens, he has been outstanding as well, and that short game quality could prove invaluable at a demanding venue like Shinnecock Hills. Of course, he is also a former U.S. Open champion, so we already know he has the temperament and skill set required to handle this type of test. He fully deserves his position in the world rankings, and with his game continuing to thrive this season, he looks a very tempting proposition at +2000.
Russell Henley – World Number 5 (+4000)
Russell Henley is a player you really do not want to underestimate this week, even if he lacks many of the flashy attributes of the modern game. He is well below average in driving distance and doesn’t possess the power to hit towering long irons, yet he continues to compete with the very best.
He has already won this season and finished tied third at The Masters, a course that shouldn’t really suit his game at all, on paper. What Henley does possess is exceptional course management, discipline, and a remarkable ability to hit greens consistently.
Despite often hitting longer clubs into greens than most, he continues to outperform his physical attributes. There is a reason he sits fifth in the world rankings among a generation of power players. Russell Henley is an outstanding golfer, and certainly not one to write off lightly this week. He comes here with a chance at a very demanding course.
Justin Rose – World Number 6 (+4500)
Justin Rose remains one of the class acts of world golf at 45 years of age. A former US Open champion, Olympic gold medalist, and multiple-time winner on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, he continues to compete at the highest level.
Shinnecock Hills should suit his fairway-finding, precision-based game perfectly, and he has already won this season and finished third at The Masters.
My only concern is his recent switch to McLaren irons, with his approach play looking slightly less sharp than usual, and that’s a worry for a player who relies on hitting a big number of high quality iron shots. Even so, Rose has all the attributes to contend and cannot be overlooked.
Tommy Fleetwood – World Number 7 (+2000)
Tommy Fleetwood is likely to be a popular selection for the US Open, and it’s easy to see why. His game is built around accuracy and consistency, with Fleetwood regularly finding fairways and giving himself plenty of opportunities to attack greens with his approach play.
That tee-to-green reliability is a huge asset at a demanding venue like Shinnecock Hills. He also has proven course form, having finished runner-up to Brooks Koepka when the US Open was last held here in 2018.
On paper, the setup looks ideal for his strengths, and another strong showing would come as no surprise. The only slight concern is his ability to convert opportunities into victories. Fleetwood has put himself in contention on countless occasions throughout his career, but his win rate doesn’t quite match the number of chances he creates. That is perhaps not fully reflected in his price, but there is no doubting he has the game to be a major factor this week.
JJ Spaun – World Number 8 (+5000)
I like the profile of JJ Spaun heading into this year’s US Open, and returning as the defending champion should only boost his confidence.
On paper, he possesses many of the attributes required to succeed at Shinnecock Hills. Spaun is generally reliable off the tee, while his approach play is arguably the strongest part of his game.
Spaun does favour a draw with his iron shots, which may not be ideal for every approach around Shinnecock, but he also produces a high ball flight that can be a real asset when attacking these firm greens. If he finds the correct landing areas, there is no reason why his game cannot translate well to the course.
Another positive is that his entire game tends to improve when he is driving the ball well. His iron play becomes sharper, and he generally putts with greater confidence when the rest of his game is in sync.
Despite sitting eighth in the world rankings, he has more than 30 players ahead of him in the betting, which feels excessive. For a player who now has major winning pedigree, he looks one of the better value options in the field.
Collin Morikawa – World Number 9 (+4500)
Collin Morikawa looks like a very strong fit for Shinnecock Hills. Few players in the world can match his iron play when he is at his best, and this course places a huge emphasis on precise approach shots and quality long-iron play into firm greens.
He also arrives with a victory already under his belt this season after winning the AT&T Pebble Beach, proving he can still get the job done when in contention. The concern is that his recent form has been a little inconsistent, and he is another that at these prices wouldn’t interest me.
However, this is a venue that rewards precision over brute force, and that plays directly into Morikawa’s strengths. If his putter behaves, he has all the tools required to contend for a third major championship. I just don’t feel confident about his outright win chances here.
Chris Gotterup – World Number 10 (+4500)
The US Open is an event that throws us some surprise winners, and Chris Gotterup does shape like one of those guys. However, I personally don’t think he has much chance this week at Shinnecock.
Gotterup plays a big banana fade off the tee that hasn’t been overly reliable, and missing fairways here is a big no here. The course this week is all about grinding out a score, and limiting damage, but I think Gotterup will have a few too many bogey’s in the locker.
I really like him as a player, but I think this is a year or two too soon for him.
Xander Schauffele – World Number 11 (+1800)
There is very little to dislike about Xander Schauffele from a course fit perspective. His all-round game is perfectly suited to a US Open test, and he undoubtedly possesses the class and ability required to win here.
My reservation though, comes more from a betting standpoint rather than a golfing one. For a player priced towards the head of the market, he simply doesn’t win often enough to appeal at these odds.
Since his Open in 2024, he hasn’t been quite as ruthless when opportunities have presented themselves. That is not to say he can’t win here, he absolutely can. He has every attribute needed to contend at Shinnecock Hills.
However, when weighing up the market as a whole, several players offer better value. He has a strong chance, and can get a close as he likes, but he doesn’t strike me as this year’s U.S. Open winner.
Aaron Rai – World Number 12 (+8000)
Last month’s PGA Championship winner is dangerously overlooked by the bookmakers. He sits 12th in the world rankings but is priced closer to 40th in the market. That immediately catches the eye.
Rai’s major victory last month was no fluke either. He fully deserved to win and proved he has the game to compete with the very best when the pressure is at its highest. Now that he has broken through and secured his first major title, there is every chance that success could act as a springboard rather than a one-off achievement.
Players often gain a new level of belief once they get that first major championship under their belt, and it would be naive to dismiss the possibility of him backing it up. Very much overpriced!
Ludvig Aberg – World Number 13 (+2500)
Ludvig is a poor choice from a betting perspective, despite his obvious talent. There is no doubt that he has the game to compete here, but for me the issue actually comes on and around the greens.
His short game just hasn’t been very reliable, and this has been a big issue for him with regards to getting over the line. On your week to week events, it’s probably easier to get away with that on the odd occasion, however a US Open demands the full package, across four days, and I don’t think Ludvig has that in him.
I’m a big fan of his, but from a betting perspective, he wouldn’t be for me. I don’t think he has the killer instinct for a Major, just yet anyway.
Ben Griffin – World Number 14 (+7500)
Ben Griffin looks significantly underestimated by the market, but he stands out as a major winner in waiting, and it feels more like a question of when, not if. He has shown strong form, already winning three times on the PGA Tour, and still appears to be improving.
A few injuries caused a slight dip in his consistency, but his game now seems to be trending back in the right direction. Conditions like this, where strong iron play and the ability to grind out scores are essential, suit him very well.
His approach play is a real strength, and he could represent excellent value in this field. He has all the tools needed to win at the highest level, and I think he could well outplay his odds this coming week.
Justin Thomas – World Number 15 (+5000)
I think Justin Thomas could start really fast this week, but I would have a big concern about him lasting the four days without a bit of a bad patch. Around here, making pars and avoiding bogeys is just as important as making birdies, and this is the problem.
I see Justin Thomas making too many doubles when they get deep into the tournament, and he wouldn’t be at the top of my betting list. However, I do think the 50/1 is the right price for his chances. One of the best ball strikers on tour, but consistency is a worry. First round leader contender perhaps?
Outright US Open Final Squad: Outright Winner Betting Picks
Here are my best bets to win this year’s US Open:
1. Wyndham Clark (+4000)
I’ve always been a big admirer of Wyndham Clark, and this week we’re getting a very appealing price for the level of ability he brings. In 2023, he claimed his maiden PGA Tour title at the Wells Fargo Championship, before backing it up in emphatic fashion by winning the U.S. Open later that same year, proving that his breakthrough was no fluke.
Clark carried that momentum into 2024, winning the AT&T Pebble Beach and even posting a 60 at the course, a feat very few players in the world have achieved.
2025 however, looked like a step backwards, as his form dipped and questions naturally followed. But I think there was a clear reason behind that. Clark has long been heavily reliant on a powerful fade, and while that shot shape can be incredibly effective, it does come with limitations. At the very top level and across a wider variety of venues, being one-dimensional can restrict opportunities. He has, however, added a draw to his game, and it is now starting to pay off.
This season we’ve started to see the benefits of the work he put in. He returned to winning ways at the Byron Nelson and followed it up with a second place finish at the Memorial at Muirfield Village, a course that demands precision and versatility.
If you go back and watch the longer par 3’s, he was hitting a draw, and I’d never seen this from Wyndham. In many ways, it feels like he sacrificed a season in order to evolve as a complete player, and that work now looks to be paying off. If that trend continues, there’s every chance he kicks on again from here.
At around 40/1, he looks more than fairly priced for a player of his caliber and for one who already has major-winning pedigree.
2. Tyrell Hatton (+4000)
I strongly believe that if all golfers were playing at their peak over 18 holes, Tyrrell Hatton would sit firmly inside the world’s top 10, and his game looks tailor-made for a course like this.
His driving has been extremely consistent in recent seasons, almost as if he has it on a string, and his subtle fade shape keeps him out of trouble more often than not. That reliability off the tee sets everything up, and from the fairway he is one of the cleanest and most precise iron players in the game. He’s very much a “point and shoot” approach player, and with minimal curvature in his shots, he can attack pins with real control and confidence.
Players either have the game to win majors or they don’t, and with Hatton, I firmly believe he does, it’s simply about timing it right. This week could well be one of those moments.
He arrives in form after a win at Valderrama on the LIV Tour, where he was the only player to finish in double figures under par, winning comfortably. That result also fits a clear pattern that he tends to thrive on demanding golf courses, with victories at Valderrama, The Belfry, St Andrews, Bay Hill, and The Emirates all highlighting his ability to perform in strong fields on tough setups.
You don’t accumulate that level of success by accident. On pure ability, Hatton is a class act and if he keeps his emotions in check, he has a very strong chance this week given the credentials he brings.
3. Justin Rose (+4500)
Justin Rose has one of the most impressive CVs in the game, with 11 DP World Tour titles, 13 PGA Tour victories, a US Open title, and an Olympic gold medal. That alone tells you the caliber of player he is.
Even at this stage of his career, Rose continues to compete on demanding courses thanks to his reliable driving and high-quality iron play. He won earlier this season and followed it up with a third-place finish at The Masters, although my enthusiasm has cooled slightly since he switched from his long-trusted TaylorMade irons to a new set of McLarens that doesn’t appear to be performing ‘quite’ as well.
I’m still convinced Rose has another major in him, and it could come sooner rather than later. He was good enough to finish tied 10th at the PGA Championship, but his iron play hasn’t looked quite as sharp as it once did. That’s a concern given how heavily his game relies on approach play.
Still, I’ve been with him since January, and I’m not jumping ship now. If the best version of Justin Rose turns up, he has every chance of contending.
4. Patrick Reed (+4000)
Patrick Reed arrives in excellent form this season, already having picked up two victories on the DP World Tour. The 2018 Masters champion has always looked at home on demanding golf courses, and it would be no surprise to see him firmly in contention at the US Open.
His driving is reliable enough to handle a test like Shinnecock, while his ability to maneuver the ball and manage his way around difficult layouts has been proven time and again throughout his career. Just as importantly, he knows how to win and has never shied away from the pressure that comes with the biggest stages in the game.
Reed’s iron play remains a major strength. While his preferred high-draw ball flight isn’t necessarily the ideal shot shape for this course, it does allow him to land the ball softer than most, which could prove valuable on Shinnecock’s firm greens. I wouldn’t want that profile across my entire team, but Reed is the type of player I’d make an exception for, because of his proven ability to perform in tough conditions.
He’s a player who is always dangerous to underestimate, and the opportunity to win his home Open could undoubtedly bring out the very best in him.
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