Master NFL Over/Under Betting With Winning Strategies

In order to minimize losses and place multiple over/under bets during each week of NFL games, having a strong bankroll management is needed. You should know that betting is not an exact science, so it is good to have a plan when predicting the NFL game totals. This football betting strategy will get you closer to a profitable margin. Splitting your bankroll allows you to bet on multiple over/under lines, minimize losses by not focusing all of your bankroll on a few bets, and it allows you to adapt to changing NFL over/under odds and lines.

Staying up-to-date on the latest NFL stats is crucial when forming your football totals strategy. Are Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on a red-hot streak on offense? Has the San Francisco 49ers defense been locking down opposing teams lately? Two high-paced teams with strong quarterbacks and weak secondaries could be a good spot to bet on the Over. Teams that focus on the run and have strong defenses meanwhile, could be good Under plays. Keep up with recent trends, like NFL plays per game, and consider how they may affect over/under betting.

Keeping track of key injuries can be very valuable in NFL over/under betting. A quarterback injury is the most obvious injury which could severely impact the total of a game, possibly resulting in a lower-scoring result. But other injuries to positions like safety or defensive line, could give the opposing offense more time and and space, resulting in more scoring opportunities.

Consider how an NFL game’s location might affect over/under betting. Are they playing in a dome or an open field, where inclement weather can affect offensive performances? Some teams are built to play fast on turf like the Rams, and often struggle on other surfaces. These factors all play an important role in the scoring flow of an NFL game, especially in the later weeks and playoffs where weather becomes a factor.

Point spreads and totals often vary among online sportsbooks. Shop around for the best odds. Getting the Over 46.5 instead of the Over 46 on your over/under play could be the difference between a push and a win.

Consider betting early on the lookahead lines for the next week. If you think two teams will look strong in say Week 4, there could be value on betting Over on the Week 5 lookahead lines to lock in a better price before the total moves. However, sometimes the lines don’t move as you expect them too or there are serious injuries to consider during the week. In this case, there could be an advantage in betting later and gathering more information. Each week and game will be different.

There’s only so much you can learn from common team statistics, such as the average points scored and points allowed. Resources such as Pro Football Reference let you analyze more in-depth stats like rushing efficiency and quarterback pressure rates. Studying advanced stats like these can help you find offensive or defensive advantages for over/under betting that casual players might miss.

There are other team factors to consider besides advanced statistics, such as their current form. For example, are they going up against a division rival who knows them well? Or is the game against an out-of-conference team who won’t have time to study them? Also consider how injuries, team motivations, and other factors beyond the stat sheet can impact the game’s flow and total.

Football totals can fluctuate throughout the week based on betting action. For example, if a total opens at 43.5 points, and the public bets heavily on the Under 43.5, the line may move down to 43 or 42.5. You might choose to side with the popular option or go for the newly adjusted price.

When it comes to value betting, price makes all the difference. If there’s a 50% chance a game will go over the posted total, you’d make a profitable bet at +110 and an unprofitable one at –110. Shop for the best lines and use The Sports Geek’s Odds Calculator to determine the value of your Over/Under bets.

Injuries and other in-game occurrences can make hedging a smart decision. Let’s say you have the Over 45 in a Cincinnati Bengals game, and Joe Burrow takes a big hit in the first quarter. If the live betting total is still at 45, you may want to bet the Under 45 to cancel out your initial wager. For more details on this method, read our guide on hedging your bets.

Sports bettors today have access to incredible tools and technology. For example, the NFL Next Gen Stats page has advanced statistics, charts, and play animations that can provide incredible insight into how offenses and defenses perform. Keep your eyes open for any modern resources that can help elevate your over/under betting strategies.