The best NFL win total bets can make the entire 2025 season more exciting! Betting on a team’s over/under regular season wins in the offseason can be tricky, but it can also set you up for huge payoffs at the end of the season.
You can wager on NFL win totals for all 32 teams at the best NFL sportsbooks. Keep reading to see the six best win totals available this offseason. I will break down the current odds for six teams and tell you whether to take the over or the under for each franchise on my list.
All odds in this article are courtesy of Bovada.
Kansas City Chiefs – Over 11.5 Wins
- Over 11.5 Wins (-125)
- Under 11.5 Wins (-105)
My list of the best NFL over/under win projections starts with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs.
Sports betting sites have the Chiefs listed with an over/under of 11.5 wins for the 2024-2025 season. The Chiefs’ NFL season win total odds dropped slightly from -130 to -125 since last month.
In June, the AFC Championship favorites had -130 odds to win more than 11.5 games. Now, Bovada is offering -125 on the Chiefs to eclipse this number. In short, the Chiefs have an implied probability of 55.6% to win 12 or more games in 2024-25!
Winning 12 games is easier said than done, but the Chiefs have made a habit of hitting double-digit wins as of late. Kansas City has won 10 or more games every year since the 2015 season and has had at least 11 wins each of the last six seasons.
The Chiefs finished 11-6 last year despite sleepwalking through most of the season. Patrick Mahomes and Co. were clearly focusing on the playoffs, resulting in the most regular season losses of Mahomes’ career.
This season should be different, though, as the Chiefs attempt to become the first team to three-peat in the Super Bowl era. They are a leading contender in the latest Super Bowl 59 odds.
As the Chiefs open training camp, injuries are not too much of a concern. Also, Mahomes instantly had a connection with rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy. It’s only early in camp, and Mahomes and Worthy appear to have found instant chemistry. That’s a bad sign for the rest of the NFL, especially with the arrival of wide receiver Marquise Brown.
After a mediocre regular season in 2023-24 by the team’s standards, the extra motivation should help Kansas City take this season more seriously than last year.
Look for the additions of Worthy and Brown to elevate Mahomes and the offense! With this in mind, consider backing the Chiefs’ NFL win total odds on the over.
New York Jets – Under 9.5 Wins
- Over 9.5 Wins (-165)
- Under 9.5 Wins (+125)
The next team I like is the New York Jets, who are listed at over/under 9.5 wins for the 2025 season. New York is favored to hit the over in the latest NFL win total odds. However, I am not as confident in Gang Green as the oddsmakers, and my NFL betting strategy would be to take the Jets’ under.
Public sentiment has trended up on the Jets over the last few weeks. The odds on the over have shifted from -135 to -165.
Bettors are more confident in the Jets winning double-digit games than a month ago — from an implied chance of 57.4% to 62.3%. That being said, I don’t feel as optimistic as the betting public about this Jets squad.
New York’s season ended after just four plays last season when QB Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles in the season opener. Despite the obviously false hype at the end of the year, Rodgers was not able to defy medical science and return to save the campaign.
The Jets’ hopes for this season will once again depend on the health of Rodgers, who is turning 41 years old this season. New York has talent on both sides of the ball, but it will all go to waste if Rodgers misses significant time again.
Rodgers is participating in training camp without any setbacks at the moment. The attention has primarily been on the veteran willingly skipping mandatory OTAs to go on a trip to Egypt. The four-time MVP revealed that he was fined, but everything is good between him and head coach Robert Saleh.
However, talented edge rusher Haason Reddick has not reported to training camp. He wants a new contract, with the Jets seemingly unwilling to budge. As a result, Reddick is on the reserve/did not report list, and there could be a trade in the works if he can’t come to terms with the Jets.
I am not confident that the quarterback will play all 17 games, and I doubt his ceiling is as high as it was before his Achilles injury. He also went just 8-9 as a Packer in his last healthy season. I doubt the Jets will hit double-digit wins, and I recommend taking the under in this NFL projected wins totals wager.
Pittsburgh Steelers – Over 8.5 Wins
- Over 8.5 Wins (+125)
- Under 8.5 Wins (-165)
Another team dealing with questions at the quarterback position is the Pittsburgh Steelers. This offseason, the franchise upgraded from Kenny Pickett by signing Russell Wilson and trading for Justin Fields. However, they still likely have the worst starting quarterback in the division and will need to rely heavily on their defense again this year.
Oddsmakers don’t view the Pittsburgh Steelers in the most favorable light this season. They have a win total of 8.5, with the odds shaded heavily toward the under. At -165, the Steelers have a 62.3% implied probability to win less than nine games, so they don’t have great odds of making the NFL playoffs, either.
Also, the 2024-25 NFL win total odds have moved slightly against the Steelers recently. After opening with a price of -150, the Steelers are now -165 to the under. I don’t spot the best betting value on this wager, though.
To make matters worse, the NFL schedule makers did not do the Steelers any favors. They play four of their first six games of the 2025 season on the road. Pittsburgh’s two home games during that stretch are against the Chargers and the Cowboys.
Fields ran with the first-team offense to open training camp. Wilson was held out of practice due to a calf injury, so Fields received starter reps by default. However, Wilson is listed as the No. 1 quarterback on the Steelers’ depth chart.
Pittsburgh’s end of the season will also be tough. Starting in Week 11, the Steelers have to play all six of their divisional games, take a trip to Philadelphia, and face the Chiefs on Christmas Day. All of these factors are big reasons why the Steelers are -165 favorites to finish with under 8.5 wins this season.
On the other hand, Head Coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in his 17 years with the team. The Steelers seemingly always find a way to win at least 50% of their games, so I would take the over on this NFL projected win total.
Buffalo Bills – Under 9.5 Wins
- Over 9.5 Wins (-160)
- Under 9.5 Wins (+120)
The Buffalo Bills also made plenty of changes this offseason. They lost several starters from last year on both sides of the ball, including star WR Stefon Diggs and DB Tre-Davious White. White has struggled with injuries, but his loss will still hurt, especially with safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde also playing elsewhere this season.
Buffalo finished 11-6 last season after struggling through a midseason slump. Despite all their changes, the Bills are still listed at over/under 10.5 wins for the 2025 NFL season. QB Josh Allen will need an MVP-level performance to hit the over on this NFL projected win total.
Allen will not have his usual weapons to work with on offense. Instead of Diggs and Gabe Davis, the quarterback will have to make do with a hodge podge of wide receivers led by rookie Keon Coleman.
Bettors have reacted negatively to the new-look Bills. Over the last month, the Bills’ NFL season win total odds have fallen from 10.5 to 9.5. There has been a surge of money coming in on the Bills to fail to reach double-digit wins in 2024-25!
I think the losses will be too much for the Bills to overcome this season. They could still make the Wild Card, but I do not see them repeating with 10+ wins this year. I would take the under on the Bills NFL win total odds.
Minnesota Vikings – Over 6.5 Wins
- Over 6.5 Wins (-150)
- Under 6.5 Wins (+115)
Six quarterbacks were taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, including JJ McCarthy. The former Michigan Wolverine was drafted 10th overall by Minnesota. McCarthy will have to beat out journeyman and former third-overall pick Sam Darnold for the starting job this season.
In the early stages of training camp, McCarthy has been receiving first-team reps. The Michigan rookie was criticized for looking overwhelmed in OTAs. However, McCarthy has reportedly impressed in his time with the starters in training camp.
Nevertheless, the quarterback battle is still very much alive in Minnesota. Darnold has the veteran edge, but the Vikings didn’t spend the 10th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to have McCarthy sit on the bench.
Minnesota finished last season with a 7-10 record after being hit heavily by the injury bug. However, whoever wins the starting job should have plenty of talent to work with on offense.
Star wide receiver Justin Jefferson will be back if and when Minnesota signs him to a new deal. The team also added former Packers RB Aaron Jones, and TE T.J. Hockenson should return midseason. Head Coach Kevin O’Connell should be able to maximize the talent on the roster.
Even with all the issues last year, the Vikings still managed seven wins in the weaker NFC. I believe they can match that, and I would take the over on the Vikings’ wins total odds.
New York Giants – Under 6.5 Wins
- Over 6.5 wins (+110)
- Under 6.5 wins (-145)
Rounding out my list of the best NFL wins total bets is the Giants finishing with under 6.5 wins. New York is listed at +115 to cover the over, but I do not think the Giants can do it this season.
The Giants lost their best player, RB Saquon Barkley, in free agency. To make matters worse, Barkley went to their division rival, the Philadelphia Eagles. New York’s QB situation is also cause for concern, as Daniel Jones may not be ready for the start of the season.
Fortunately, Jones recently returned to practice in full for the first time since Week 9 of the 2023 NFL season. Behind a shaky offensive line, it may not be long before he is back on the injury report, though. Two projected starters are dealing with injuries.
Even if Jones is healthy this season, this team’s ceiling is low. New York starts the season with four playoff teams from last year in its first eight games. They also have to overcome a serious talent deficiency on offense, and rookie WR Malik Nabers will need to play big minutes right away.
I believe the Giants still have plenty of holes to fill on their roster, and they are years away from contending. With that in mind, I would take the under on the Giants 6.5 NFL win total projection.
Where To Bet On NFL Win Totals?
Betting on NFL over/under win totals is both entertaining and potentially profitable. Check out the list above to see my NFL win total predictions for six of the most talked about teams this offseason.
Bovada Sportsbook is one of the top sportsbooks for NFL fans. It has NFL under/over win totals for all 32 teams and many other NFL futures and specials. If you decide to see for yourself, don’t forget to claim your 50% welcome bonus of up to $250 or 75% up to $750 for crypto!
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