6 Best NFL Win Total Bets for the 2024 Season

6 Best NFL Win Total Bets for the 2024 Season

The best NFL win total bets can make the entire 2024 season more exciting! Betting on a team’s over/under regular season wins in the offseason can be tricky, but it can also set you up for huge payoffs at the end of the season.

You can wager on NFL win totals for all 32 teams at the best NFL sportsbooks. Keep reading to see the six best win totals available this offseason. I will break down the current odds for six teams and tell you whether to take the over or the under for each franchise on my list.

Kansas City Chiefs – Over 11.5 Wins

All odds in this article are courtesy of Bovada.

  • Over 11.5 wins (-130)
  • Under 11.5 wins (+100)

My list of the best NFL over/under win projections starts with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs. Sports betting sites have the Chiefs listed at over/under 11.5 wins for the 2024 season. The Chiefs are -130 favorites to hit the over, and the under is listed at even money.

Winning 12 games is easier said than done, but the Chiefs have made a habit of hitting double-digit wins as of late. Kansas City has won 10 or more games every year since the 2015 season and has had at least 11 wins each of the last six seasons.

The Chiefs finished 11-6 last year despite sleepwalking through most of the season. Patrick Mahomes and Co. were clearly focusing on the playoffs, resulting in the most regular season losses of Mahomes’ career.

This season should be different, though, as the Chiefs attempt to become the first team to three-peat in the Super Bowl era. They are a leading contender in the latest Super Bowl 59 odds.

The extra motivation should help Kansas City take this season more seriously than last year. Mahomes also has two new WRs to work with: free agent signee Marquise Brown and first-round pick Xavier Worthy.

The Bet
Chiefs over 11.5 Wins

New York Jets – Under 9.5 Wins

  • Over 9.5 wins (-135)
  • Under 9.5 wins (+105)

The next team I like is the New York Jets, who are listed at over/under 9.5 wins for the 2024 season. New York is favored to hit the over in the latest NFL win total odds. However, I am not as confident in Gang Green as the oddsmakers, and my NFL betting strategy would be to take the Jets’ under.

New York’s season ended after just four plays last season when QB Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles in the season opener. Despite the obviously false hype at the end of the year, Rodgers was not able to defy medical science and return to save the campaign.

The Jets’ hopes for this season will once again depend on the health of Rodgers, who is turning 41 years old this season. New York has talent on both sides of the ball, but it will all go to waste if Rodgers misses significant time again.

I am not confident that the quarterback will play all 17 games, and I doubt his ceiling is as high as it was before his Achilles injury. He also went just 8-9 as a Packer in his last healthy season. I doubt the Jets will hit double-digit wins, and I recommend taking the under in this NFL projected wins totals wager.

The Bet
Jets under 9.5 wins

Pittsburgh Steelers – Over 8.5 Wins

  • Over 8.5 wins (+115)
  • Under 8.5 (-150)

Another team dealing with questions at the quarterback position is the Pittsburgh Steelers. This offseason, the franchise upgraded from Kenny Pickett by signing Russell Wilson and trading for Justin Fields. However, they still likely have the worst starting quarterback in the division and will need to rely heavily on their defense again this year.

To make matters worse, the NFL schedule makers did not do the Steelers any favors. They play four of their first six games of the 2024 season on the road. Pittsburgh’s two home games during that stretch are against the Chargers and the Cowboys.

Pittsburgh’s end of the season will also be tough. Starting in Week 11, the Steelers have to play all six of their divisional games, take a trip to Philadelphia, and face the Chiefs on Christmas Day. All of these factors are big reasons why the Steelers are -150 favorites to finish with under 8.5 wins this season.

On the other hand, Head Coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in his 17 years with the team. The Steelers seemingly always find a way to win at least 50% of their games, so I would take the over on this NFL projected win total.

The Bet
Steelers over 8.5 games

Buffalo Bills – Under 10.5 Wins

  • Over 10.5 wins (+110)
  • Under 10.5 wins (-145)

The Buffalo Bills also made plenty of changes this offseason. They lost several starters from last year on both sides of the ball, including star WR Stefon Diggs and DB Tre-Davious White. White has struggled with injuries, but his loss will still hurt, especially with safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde also playing elsewhere this season. 

Buffalo finished 11-6 last season after struggling through a midseason slump. Despite all their changes, the Bills are still listed at over/under 10.5 wins for the 2024 NFL season. QB Josh Allen will need an MVP-level performance to hit the over on this NFL projected win total. 

Allen will not have his usual weapons to work with on offense. Instead of Diggs and Gabe Davis, the quarterback will have to make do with a hodge podge of wide receivers led by rookie Keon Coleman.

I think the losses will be too much for the Bills to overcome this season. They could still make the Wild Card, but I do not see them repeating with 11+ wins this year. I would take the under on the Bills NFL win total odds.

The Bet
Bills under 10.5 wins

Minnesota Vikings – Over 6.5 Wins

  • Over 6.5 wins (-150)
  • Under 6.5 wins (+115)

Six quarterbacks were taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, including JJ McCarthy. The former Michigan Wolverine was drafted 10th overall by Minnesota. McCarthy will have to beat out journeyman and former third-overall pick Sam Darnold for the starting job this season.

Minnesota finished last season with a 7-10 record after being hit heavily by the injury bug. However, whoever wins the starting job should have plenty of talent to work with on offense.

Star wide receiver Justin Jefferson will be back if and when Minnesota signs him to a new deal. The team also added former Packers RB Aaron Jones, and TE T.J. Hockenson should return midseason. Head Coach Kevin O’Connell should be able to maximize the talent on the roster.

Even with all the issues last year, the Vikings still managed seven wins in the weaker NFC. I believe they can match that, and I would take the over on the Vikings’ wins total odds.

The Bet
Vikins over 6.5 wins

New York Giants – Under 6.5 Wins

  • Over 6.5 wins (+110)
  • Under 6.5 wins (-145)

Rounding out my list of the best NFL wins total bets is the Giants finishing with under 6.5 wins. New York is listed at +110 to cover the over, but I do not think the Giants can do it this season.

The Giants lost their best player, RB Saquon Barkley, in free agency. To make matters worse, Barkley went to their division rival, the Philadelphia Eagles. New York’s QB situation is also cause for concern, as Daniel Jones may not be ready for the start of the season.

Even if he is, this team’s ceiling is low. New York starts the season with four playoff teams from last year in its first eight games. They also have to overcome a serious talent deficiency on offense, and rookie WR Malik Nabers will need to play big minutes right away.

I believe the Giants still have plenty of holes to fill on their roster, and they are years away from contending. With that in mind, I would take the under on the Giants 6.5 NFL win total projection.

The Bet
Giants under 6.5 wins

Where To Bet On NFL Win Totals?

Betting on NFL over/under win totals is both entertaining and potentially profitable. Check out the list above to see my NFL win total predictions for six of the most talked about teams this offseason.

Bovada Sportsbook is one of the top sportsbooks for NFL fans. It has NFL under/over win totals for all 32 teams and many other NFL futures and specials. If you decide to see for yourself, don’t forget to claim your 50% welcome bonus of up to $250 or 75% up to $750 for crypto!

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About the Author
Shaun Stack profile picture
Shaun Stack
Shaun Stack has authored dozens of casino blogs and joined our team in 2022. He enjoys playing any casino game but is particularly fond of Blackjack and Texas Hold'em. Also, he likes betting on sports, especially the NFL. Shaun is a native of Kansas City, but now lives in Pennsylvania and is an avid PA sports fan.

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