Women’s US Open 2025 Championship Odds: Can Sabalenka Repeat at Flushing Meadows?

Sabalenka dropped just one set en route to last year’s title, which was her third Grand Slam and second of 2024. The Belarussian world #1 lost to Madison Keys in the final of the 2025 Australian Open and Coco Gauff in the French Open final. Sabalenka then fell to Amanda Anisimova in the Wimbledon semifinals.

ARYNA SABALENKA REIGNS SUPREME IN NEW YORK! pic.twitter.com/rVEGvuBMe4

— US Open Tennis (@usopen) September 7, 2024

Still, the 27-year-old has won three titles this year in Brisbane, Madrid, and Miami. Her game is tailor-made for hard surfaces, where she has won all three of her Grand Slams. Sabalenka’s greatest obstacle might be herself, as she sometimes loses her composure.

If Sabalenka can keep her wits about her, she can win anywhere in the world, but especially on hard courts.  Her WTA US Open odds of +260 are good value for a former champion, and she has been so close this year. Can Sabalenka keep her cool in New York, and what about the other favorites?

Swiatek won here in 2022, but has since lost in the fourth round and the quarterfinals of the US Open. In 2025, the Polish star has lost in the semifinals of the Australian and French Open. Many were shocked at the French Open loss, as Swiatek had won at Roland Garros three straight years.

I6A 🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆@iga_swiatek moves to 6-0 in Grand Slam finals 🇵🇱#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/56iQThkGV6

— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 12, 2025

However, Swiatek rolled through Wimbledon, and thrashed Amanda Anisimova 6-0, 6-0 in the final. It was the second big title of 2025 for Swiatek, who also won in Cincinnati. Despite her 2022 victory here, the 24-year-old hasn’t been that successful on hard courts.

That’s not to say she can’t win. But I think Swiatek is a bit overpriced with her WTA US Open odds of +325, so I would be wary of the Polish #2 player in the world.

Gauff has had an up-and-down 2025, losing in the semifinals of the Australian Open, then beating Sabalenka in the French Open final. But the American was brought back to earth with a first-round loss at Wimbledon. Nonetheless, Gauff is still comfortably third in the world behind Sabalenka and Swiatek.

Coco Gauff perspective

“Sometimes tennis fans want us to win like every week. But we’re playing 11 months. It’s not that easy, so its completely normal for a player to have a good 3-4 weeks, then maybe a not so good 3-4 weeks just bcuz the way our season is built”

🎥: WTA, DAZN pic.twitter.com/hHJU3lKiSr

— TennisONE App (@TennisONEApp) August 16, 2025

The 21-year-old will surely feed off the fans, as she may be the most popular player in the field. However, Gauff has to sort out her serve, as she is the leader on the WTA Tour in double faults by a wide margin. When she lands her first serve, Gauff is a problem, but she has to be more consistent.

That said, her ceiling is as high as anyone at Flushing Meadows, and her +700 US Open odds offer a terrific return on the American!

Andreeva, ranked fifth in the world, has reached the quarterfinals at the French Open and Wimbledon, along with a fourth-round exit at the Australian Open. However, the 18-year-old has yet to make it past the second round at the US Open in two attempts.

She does have two titles this season in Dubai and Indiana Wells, which are both hard-court tournaments. It stands to reason that Andreeva should be good at Flushing Meadows. But she is still 18, and the Russian might need a little more experience before competing under the bright lights in Queens.

Rybakina is another player whose WTA US Open odds I’m not high on. The 2022 Wimbledon winner hasn’t made it past the fourth round in a Grand Slam in 2025. Furthermore, her US Open record isn’t great, as the Kazakhstani player hasn’t been past the third round in Queens.

Rybakina does have one title this season, which she won in Strasbourg on a clay court. But overall, she has struggled on hard courts, which is why she’s a doubt for me when considering my WTA US Open predictions.