The Fury vs. Usyk betting odds have changed multiple times after all the twists and turns in this saga, but they’ve always been close. Most boxing betting sites struggle to pick a favorite, and it’s easy to see why.
The clash between the two most talented heavyweights of this generation seems unpredictable. And yet, I’m sure many boxing fans will give it a go, so I’m here to analyze the bout and share my Fury vs. Usyk prediction and betting pick. Let’s start with the odds!
Tyson Fury vs. Oleksandr Usyk Betting Odds Update and Preview
The following Tyson Fury vs. Oleksandr Usyk odds are courtesy of Bovada:
| FIGHTER | MONEYLINE | TOTAL ROUNDS – OVER/UNDER |
|---|---|---|
| Tyson Fury | -115 | Over 10.5 (-300) |
| Oleksandr Usyk | -105 | Under 10.5 (+220) |
As the fight draws closer, the Fury vs. Usyk odds have shifted only slightly since March. The Gypsy King remains the favorite, but his price to win isn’t as strong as it was back then.
Fury was previously a -125 favorite to beat Usyk on the moneyline. Currently, at -115, his chances to win decreased from 55.6% to 53.5%, according to Bovada. It isn’t a significant shift, but this suggests that the bookie got more money on Usyk since March.
The total round odds witnessed some movement, too. The Over 10.5 rounds price has dropped from -350 to -300. Public sentiment about the fight going the distance isn’t as strong as it used to be in March.
Tale of the Tape & Boxing Styles
Let’s take a closer look at how these two heavyweight behemoths stack up against each other when they square off in the ring.
Usyk has very rarely been the smaller fighter in his bouts, but that changed dramatically when he moved to the heavyweight division. He will certainly be giving up size and reach when he squares off against Tyson Fury in May.
That said, Oleksandr Usyk is a crafty southpaw, and his style could cause problems for Tyson Fury. He gave up three inches and nearly 20 pounds vs. Anthony Joshua but was the quicker and savvier fighter in virtually all exchanges. Expect this to be the blueprint once again for Usyk to find success vs. Fury.
Usyk boasts elite-level hand speed and his approaches from different angles will be hard for the bigger Fury to get a read on. While the Gypsy King will try and utilize the jab to keep Usyk to the outside, the Ukrainian boxer is an excellent defender, and a master of striking when the opportunity calls for it.
It will be one of the most tactical fights in recent years, with both fighters more than capable of imposing their style on the opponent. And yet, the smaller and nimbler Usyk definitely has the foot movement and technique to outbox Fury.
Most importantly, his body composition should allow him to avoid Fury’s notorious tactics to exhaust his opponents by leaning on them with his entire body weight. Usyk should be able to dodge that, which will be a big factor in the fight.
Intangibles
Tyson Fury has proven many times he can be the best in the world, and one of the best fighters to ever do it. The issue with his commitment recently bothers me, though, both in training camp, and on the day of the bout.
In his last battle vs. Francis Ngannou, Fury clearly wasn’t in the best of shape and didn’t prepare nearly as thoroughly as he could have. He was surprised with a knockdown against the powerful MMA fighter, and that same attitude this time around won’t get him very far vs. a fighter with a renowned killer instinct, such as Oleksandr Usyk.
Fury also has many ongoings outside of the ring. From appearing in WWE, to his family’s Netflix show, it would not be shocking to see Fury a tad distracted for a test of this magnitude. The talented British fighter likes to make predictions and talk boastfully in the lead-up, though that should only fuel a hungry and driven Usyk.
Tyson Fury showing he's back in training on Instagram today ahead of the Oleksandr Usyk fight on May 18th: "Somebody tell Usyk the ace is back. Inside seven rounds. Can't wait."
[🎥 @Tyson_Fury] pic.twitter.com/KwMdp90jrU
— Michael Benson (@MichaelBensonn) March 4, 2024
And for Oleksandr Usyk, there’s no doubt he’ll be prepared for Fury, though the grandest stage of them all is tough to ignore. This will be a massive bout, with all kinds of spotlight and attention on the match.
The media alone and the build-up and hype Fury usually creates for his fights should be special. Usyk has yet to have a match that garners this type of attention, and it remains to be seen how the Ukrainian will react to such pronounced fanfare.
Training Camp & Fight Updates
Before delving into my updated Fury vs. Usyk betting pick, let’s check in on the latest updates from each side’s camp.
After going into the Ngannou fight out of shape and disinterested, is Fury looking better leading into the bout? Does Usyk appear ready to go to battle?
Tyson Fury
There have been mixed messages coming out of the Fury camp. Last month, there were reports that he was struggling against sparring partner Jai Opetaia.
The fighter exited Fury’s camp to prepare for an upcoming fight of his own. However, Opetaia indicated that the reports were untrue: “All b******t, it’s annoying reporters spread absolute lies.”
So, who is telling the truth? Opetaia is unlikely to come out and share that he dropped Fury in sparring sessions. I must admit, it seems unlikely that the Australian boxer knocked him down, but Fury still might be struggling.
Before the February fight was postponed, there were reports that Fury wasn’t having a great camp.
Afterward, training footage of the UK fighter working out emerged online in mid-March, and he didn’t appear to be in any better shape than he was in the Ngannou bout. That said, he has slimmed down markedly.
The difference between Tyson Fury in the Ngannou camp and the Usyk camp 😳 pic.twitter.com/Mt4XZCN6M3
— Happy Punch (@HappyPunch) March 20, 2024
Fury has never been a model candidate for the perfect physique, so the eye test can be deceiving with him. Nevertheless, he is in a much better spot than he was going into the Ngannou contest.
Oleksandr Usyk
While there are rumors of Fury’s sparring partner embarrassing him, the opposite has been true for the cagey Ukranian. According to former boxer and current commentator, Josh Nelson, Usyk is destroying his sparring partners.
“I know [Usyk] had five heavyweight sparring partners. I spoke to three of them, and they said he got stronger as the rounds went on, and he manhandled all five of them,” Nelson said.
Nelson shared that Fury will have the physical advantage with his height, but it isn’t due to his power. He believes that Usyk has a chance to win with a KO, though so does Fury.
"Your camp just started, mine never finished."
Oleksandr Usyk responds to Tyson Fury on Instagram 👀
🎬 @Usykaa #Usyk | #FuryUsyk | #RingOfFire pic.twitter.com/yxmv3DqV6w
— IFL TV (@IFLTV) March 19, 2024
Physically, Usyk appears to be well-prepared to fight Fury. Conditioning should not be a concern given the reports out of his camp.
Fury vs. Usyk Prediction and Betting Pick
Francis Ngannou parlayed a knockdown and an impressive showing against Tyson Fury, who looked a few steps behind his best days. If the British boxer brings that level of form and desire to the ring against Oleksandr Usyk on May 18th – he’s in trouble.
Fortunately, for Fury fans, he will not enter the boxing ring for this fight in similarly terrible shape. The champ did not take Ngannou seriously and paid for it with a near loss. Nevertheless, that fight may have done enough to rock Fury’s confidence.
Usyk will have a well-laid-out game plan, as few fighters at heavyweight can move with the pace he does. The Ukrainian boasts quick hands and feet – which should lead to his stamina wearing down Fury over a lengthy bout.
I am not surprised to hear that Usyk is having an excellent camp. He has been waiting a long time for this moment against Fury. Let’s not forget that the Gypsy King has been the one delaying the fight.
Usyk has defeated larger boxers before, and if he can stay out of range of Fury’s jab and heavy right hand, Usyk can rack up consistent points on the scorecards with a regular punch and move technique. Expect a competitive tilt, but one where the Ukrainian prevails via decision.
