The women’s singles Australian Open 2026 Final odds have been released for the clash Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina. Unsurprisingly, last year’s finalist and World No. 1 Sabalenka comes in as the odds-on favorite against an opponent she knows well, having played Rybakina 14 times in her career.
With both players yet to drop a set, this could be an exciting final that has the potential to run deep. I explore their head-to-head matchup, the betting odds, and both players’ path to the final before sharing my women’s singles 2026 Australian Open prediction.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina Betting Odds (Women’s Australian Open Final)
Here are the betting odds for the Australian Open Final 2026 between Sabalenka and Rybakina.
| Match | Pick |
|---|---|
| Sabalenka to win | -165 |
| Rybakina to win | +135 |
| Over 22.5 Games | -115 |
| Under 22.5 Games | -115 |
The WTA Australian Open odds make top-ranked Sabalenka the odds-on favorite at -165, with tennis betting sites giving her an implied probability of 62.26%. The underdog, Rybakina is lined at +135, giving her an implied probability of 42.55%. With over/under odds both priced at -115, oddsmakers are torn between this being a shorter or longer match.
To follow along and make your own Australian Open best bets, visit Bovada and navigate to Sports >>> Tennis >>> Game Lines >>> Australian Open.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina H2H Stats
There’s plenty of Sabalenka vs. Rybakina head-to-head history to review before the AO 2026 final.
Saturday’s match will be their 15th all-time meeting, a history where Sabalenka holds an 8-6 edge.
Despite that advantage, many of Sabalenka’s wins came earlier in their careers where she won the first four meetings. The two have alternated wins and losses in each of their past nine matches. Rybakina is actually 6-4 in their last ten matches and won their most recent at the WTA Finals 6-3 7-6(0).
That encounter in Riyadh was their fourth in 2025, where each won twice. Only one went into a third set, with the total games coming in at 35, 17, 18, and 22 games.
Only two of their all-time matches have come at Grand Slam events, with Sabalenka winning both in three sets; first at Wimbledon 2021 and then at the Australian Open Final in 2023.
Sabalenka – 4th Straight Australian Open Final
After winning the Aussie Open in both 2023 and 2024, Sabalenka was denied a three-peat last year when she lost to Madison Keys.
supremely superb from Sabalenka. 👏 pic.twitter.com/7pfR3X8JDq
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) January 29, 2026
It was still an exceptional year where she reached the semis at all four slams and won the US Open.
The season ended with the loss to Rybakina in Riyadh, but that’s still her last defeat after winning in Brisbane and cruising to the finals in Australia. A third-round match versus Anastasia Potapova which needed two tie-breakers was a bit of a speed bump, but otherwise she’s won her other five matches by at least six games.
In the semifinals, she swept aside the now 10th-ranked Elina Svitolina 6-2 6-3, who had been 10-0 to begin the year. She’s now 68-12 in hardcourt majors, equating to the highest winning percentage (85%) of any active woman.
Sabalenka is a perfect 11-0 in 2026, has yet to lose a set, and has won 15 of her last 16 matches going back to last year. That’s scary form, but if there’s a player on the tour that is not afraid of Sabalenka, that’s Rybakina.
Rybakina – Only 1 Loss in 20 Matches
Rybakina returns to a Grand Slam Final for the first time since 2023 when she reached the final in Melbourne at the Australian Open vs Sabalenka and lost 6-4 3-6 6-4. Last year she reached the Round of 16 in three slams, including Australia, but that proved to be her ceiling.
After ending 2025 on a high by defeating Sabalenka in the WTA Final, Rybakina has had an exceptional early 2026 season. She reached the quarters in Brisbane, before cruising to the semifinals in Melbourne, never winning by fewer than five games.
Her semifinal match proved to be her toughest contest against American Jessica Pegula. Rybakina took the first set 6-3 but needed a long tie-breaker in set two to win 7-6(7). She’s still yet to drop a set in Australia and has lost just one during her nine games this season where she’s 8-1. Go further back into last year and she’s now won 19 of her past 20 matches.
Sabalenka vs. Rybakina Prediction and Betting Pick
The Australian Open women’s singles final looks tough to call. Sabalenka and Rybakina accomplished something that no two players have done since Serena and Venus Williams at the 2008 Wimbledon Final – both reaching a Grand Slam final without dropping a set.
They’re also the first players since Martina Hingis and Lindsay Davenport in 1999 to both make the finals of each of the WTA Finals and Australian Open.
One enticing Australian Open prop could be a bet on the Over for aces at 13.5. Rybakina leads all players with 41 aces this tournament (6.83 per match) and Sabalenka is tied in fifth with 22 (3.67 per match). While those averages would still come in under that total if combined, during their 2025 matches there were a total of 18, 8, 15, and 20 aces between them.
Furthermore, these averages are deflated because of the very short matches both have played so far. This one will likely go much longer, possibly to a third set. The rivalry between Sabalenka and Rybakina has been close for many years, with neither player been able to win two in a row since Rybakina did it in March and October of 2023.
Out for revenge from the WTA Final, that could tip the scales slightly to Sabalenka continuing that trend with a win. She’s also an incredible 34-6 lifetime at this event and leads this year’s tournament with 172 winners.
But then Rybakina is 20-6 in her career in Melbourne herself. She’s also a perfect 9-0 in recent matchups versus top-10 ranked opponents, including knocking out Pegula and Iga Swiatek this tournament. In contrast, Sabalenka hasn’t faced anyone inside the top ten on her way to the final.
Instead of backing a winner, let’s bet on a longer match that goes over 22.5 games. With both players flying in AO 2026 and being so close in the H2H history, this looks like the best bet for the final.
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