Spain vs. Belgium Betting Preview and Best Bets (World Cup Quarterfinal)

Spain vs. Belgium Betting Preview and Best Bets (World Cup Quarterfinal)

Spain is a substantial favorite in the World Cup quarterfinal clash against Belgium, according to the latest betting odds. The European champions are much stronger on paper, but their opponents just found some confidence after coming back late against Senegal and trashing the USA.

Can Belgium ride the wave and beat Spain? I explore both teams and their path so far before sharing my Spain vs. Belgium predictions and best bets. Let’s begin with the latest odds.

Spain vs. Belgium Betting Odds and Lines

Here are the main betting markets for the quarterfinal between Spain and Belgium.

  • Spain to advance: -330
  • Belgium to advance: +255
  • Spain to win: -157
  • Belgium to win: +440
  • Draw: +295
  • Over 2.5 Goals: -122
  • Under 2.5 Goals: -102

The top World Cup sportsbooks online give Spain the edge in this one, offering -330 for them to qualify for the semifinals. That equals an implied probability of over 76%, which feels too high. The same applies to the moneyline win odds for Spain.

If you already see a bet you like, feel free to visit Lucky Rebel. You will find the odds above and 250+ more markets for the clash between Spain and Belgium.

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Spain: Do the European Champions Lack Speed?

I’m really not sure what to think about Spain after the first five games of the tournament. They’re getting the results, but the overall performance is not on the same level it was at EURO 2024.

The lack of speed  is my biggest concern. This team heavily relied on Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal’s explosive runs on the flanks two years ago. The former is not the same player after suffering a bunch of health issues this season, while Yamal looks a step behind his best after entering the World Cup with an injury.

Spain has been able to make up for that, thanks to depth and defense, but it’s only going to get worse. The team looked sterile against Cabo Verde, Uruguay, and Portugal, failing to create enough chances.

On top of that, Rodri and Pedri have both looked below their best. They still move the ball well and protect the defense, but there’s the occasional mistake or a poor pass, which is not something we’re used to.

Still, Spain has a strong defense and can keep the ball well. They also have more than enough players on the bench who can help, as we clearly saw against Portugal. Ferran Torres and Mikel Merino made the difference after coming in, combining for the late winner.

Overall, Spain remains a very good team, but they are not as dangerous up front as they were two years ago. This could open the door a bit for a Belgian side that has plenty of momentum entering this match.

Belgium: Better Without de Bruyne and Doku?

I didn’t expect much from Belgium before the World Cup started. Obviously, they were good enough to reach the knockouts, but getting eliminated in the first or second game after the group stage looked like the most logical outcome for this squad.

The early signs confirmed my expectations, as Belgium failed to beat Iran and Egypt. They found some form against New Zealand, but that was hardly a big deal given the opposition.

Then came the game against Senegal, when everything changed. The African team was 2-0 up in the middle of the second half, and head coach Rudi Garcia made the bold decision to substitute his two biggest stars: Kevin de Bruyne and Jeremy Doku.

The flow changed quickly and Belgium suddenly looked dangerous, finding two late goals to force extra time and then winning the game deep in extra time.

Then head coach doubled down on his decision, leaving de Bruyne and Doku on the bench against USA. The team responded with the best game of the tournament, dumping the hosts after a 4-1 victory.

Overall, it feels like something clicked against Senegal. Garcia decided to build the team around Trossard and Tielemans, as they have been the best players in the group stage.

This move and the Balogun controversy galvanized Belgium, and the team looks hungry and confident before the game against Spain. Furthermore, de Bruyne and Doku will be eager to prove their worth after getting benched.

Something’s brewing in Belgium’s camp, and my instincts tell me this team is significantly better than it was just 10 days ago.


Spain vs. Belgium Predictions and Best Bets

Momentum is a huge factor in knockout tournaments, so Belgium shouldn’t be underestimated. Sure, Spain has the better squad and the confidence of winning the 2024 EUROs, but the odds are too one-sided.

Belgium is confident and hungry, so getting +255 for them to upset Spain is just too high to ignore. I expected something like +200 for the underdog, and I’m more than happy to take the actual price as the best bet in this quarterfinal.

If you feel adventurous, backing Belgium to win in regular time at +440 is not a bad option either.

The Bet
Belgium to Progress
+255

About the Author
Petko Stoyanov profile picture
Petko Stoyanov
Editor, Sports and Casino
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Petko Stoyanov is a prolific content writer in the online gambling industry and a lifelong fan of card games and the English Premier League. He’s interested in all aspects of betting, from psychology to data analysis to bankroll management. Anything that can impact your results. When he’s not watching sports or playing online poker, Petko loves hiking, soccer, and playing hard support in Dota 2.
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