2023 MLB All-Star Game Odds, Home Run Derby Predictions

MLB All Star

On Tuesday, July 11, the best baseball players in the world will be on the field at T-Mobile Park for the 2023 All-Star Game. One night earlier, the big bats are coming out for the Home Run Derby to open MLB All-Star Week.

All-Star Game matchups are typically non-competitive events that most fans gloss over. However, the MLB All-Star Game has a different type of atmosphere. And, while the home-field advantage in the World Series is no longer dictated by who wins the game, players play to win.

MLB betting can be profitable during the regular season, and fortunately, you can handicap the MLB All-Star Game odds. Of course, don’t forget about the Home Run Derby on Monday evening. Home Run Derby odds present an opportunity to cash in at online sports betting sites.

The American League has won the MLB All-Star Game for an incredible eight straight years. They are coming off a 3-2 win in a pitcher’s duel against the National League last year. Let’s take a look at the latest MLB All-Star Game odds and Home Run Derby odds from the best MLB betting sites.

2023 MLB All-Star Game Odds

The following MLB All-Star Game odds are courtesy of BetUS:

National League+1.5 (-220)+115Over 7.5 (-105)
American League-1.5 (+180)-125Under 7.5 (-115)

Unsurprisingly, the American League All-Stars are favored to win the 2023 MLB All-Star Game. The American League has dominated this contest with eight straight victories. However, the National League were slight favorites last year.

Despite bettors backing the National League to end the drought, the American League pushed back for a 3-2 victory.

In 2023, the American League is favored to win their ninth straight All-Star Game. At -125 odds, they are the clear favorite to win on Tuesday night at BetUS.

The All-Star Game is typically a low-scoring contest. Since 2013, there have been an average of 6.8 runs scored per game1.

American League All-Star Game Roster Analysis

Can the American League make it nine straight All-Star contests with a win? They will have to do it without Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, and maybe Shohei Ohtani.

Judge will not be in Seattle to participate in the All-Star Game or Home Run Derby. The American League home run record holder is dealing with a sprained right toe. He intends to stay in the Bronx to continue treatment in preparation for the second half of the season2.

Meanwhile, Trout suffered a wrist injury that will keep him out for at least four to eight weeks. Trout’s injury required minor surgery to repair the damage done by a foul ball3. Those are two big bats absent from the American League lineup.

That said, there is a slim chance that Ohtani will be in the starting lineup despite staying off the mound. A nagging blister on his pitching hand will prevent Ohtani from starting on the bump. But Ohtani will hit in the DH spot if he feels good enough to play on Tuesday night.

With Trout and Judge officially out, the Texas Rangers will have a record five starters in the lineup. It was originally supposed to be four players, but outfielder Adolis Garcia was a late addition to the starting lineup on Friday4.

Jonah Heim, Marcus Semien, Josh Jung, and Corey Seager are expected to represent the Rangers in Seattle. The Rangers are well-represented in All-Star festivities after one of the best efforts in the first half of the season. Currently, Texas is tied with the Astros for the fourth-best World Series odds.

So, if you like the Rangers, you should like the American League in the All-Star Game. In addition to five position players, starter Nathan Eovaldi is off to Seattle after posting an ERA of 2.83 and a 1.02 WHIP in 18 starts5.

Notable pitchers on the American League roster include Gerrit Cole, Framber Valdez, Luis Castillo, and Sonny Gray. They will be without Cy Young candidate Shane McClanahan, due to being a recent addition to the IL. And, again, Ohtani will be unavailable.

National League All-Star Game Roster Analysis

The National League has a more diverse representation than five players from the same squad. However, not by too much, as three starters are from the Braves, and three are members of the Dodgers.

The Braves are favored to win the World Series following a red-hot June. They went 21-4 and it has carried over to July. In six games, the Braves are 5-1 for a cumulative record of 26-5 in their previous 31 outings6.

Sean Murphy, Orlando Arcia, and NL MVP favorite, Ronald Acuna Jr., will represent the Braves in the All-Star Game. Acuna is the odds-on favorite to win MVP at -300. As the preseason favorite, he could have a wire-to-wire win for the NL MVP.

Acuna is hitting .333 with a .410 OBP and 21 home runs. Speed has been his greatest asset, as Acuna has stolen 41 bases and a total of 78 runs this season.

The biggest X-factor on the National League roster has to be Murphy. The star catcher has shown tremendous improvement from last season. After hitting .250 with 66 RBIs and 18 home runs in 148 games in Oakland last season, Murphy is at .304 with 16 long balls in 66 games7.

The first-year Brave has a sneaky chance of winning the All-Star Game MVP. If you are looking for another value bet to win MVP, rookie Corbin Carroll should be a contender. Carroll’s NL Rookie of the Year odds have shot up since going into this season as the betting favorite.

The Arizona Diamondback is in a league of his own amongst rookies. Carroll is hitting .291 with 47 RBIs and 18 home runs in 84 matchups. Additionally, he has collected 26 stolen bases and 63 runs8.

The pitching situation looks strong for the National League. Despite starter Clayton Kershaw missing the game with a sore shoulder, the National League should be in good form on the bump. NL Cy Young favorite Zac Gallen is set to pitch, as are Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder, and Justin Steele.

2023 MLB All-Star Game Predictions

The absence of Judge, Trout, and Ohtani evens the playing field and likely tilts the game in favor of the National League at T-Mobile Park. If they were playing, then -125 odds is a much stronger bet. However, Judge and Trout are definitely out, while Ohtani may not be in the lineup.

The National League’s MVP favorite is expected to participate in the All-Star Game, though. Acuna joins what is a talented roster of underrated stars.

The Rangers’ players should be motivated to show up on the big stage. However, disregarding the presence of Luis Arraez, Freddie Freeman, and Carroll on the National League roster is dangerous.

The Marlins’ Arraez and Acuna Jr. provide the National League with the two highest batting averages in Major League Baseball. Arraez leads the majors with a .386 batting average in 324 at-bats.

Following Arraez is the Braves’ MVP candidate, as Acuna is second-best with a .333 batting average. Also, Freeman is fourth with a .318 average at the plate9.

That gives the National League the No. 1, No. 2, and No. 4 hitters in terms of batting average in the major leagues. Furthermore, the National League’s pitching staff has some big arms in the best form of their careers.

Elder is tops in baseball with an ERA of 2.45. Following the American League’s Valdez, the Twins’ Gray is third with an ERA of 2.50. With McClanahan missing the All-Star Game, the National League has three of the top four pitchers, according to ERA10.

The American League’s All-Star Game streak will eventually come to a halt. With several factors working in the National League’s favor, this looks like a good year to end it at +115 odds in a 4-3 win.

The Bet

2023 Home Run Derby Odds

The following Home Run Derby odds are courtesy of BetUS:

Pete Alonso+275
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.+400
Julio Rodriguez+550
Luis Robert Jr.+550
Adolis Garcia+650
Mookie Betts+1000
Randy Arozarena+1000
Adley Rutschman+1600

Pete Alonso is the betting favorite to win the 2023 Home Run Derby. At +275 odds, Alonso is firmly favored to win the long ball contest at T-Mobile Park. However, should you consider betting on Alonso?

There is no secret betting strategy for the Home Run Derby. Take the best value and hope for the best outcome. Last year, Juan Soto beat Julio Rodriguez in a 19-18 thriller at Dodgers Stadium. Rodriguez returns to the Home Run Derby with +550 odds to win.

Rodriguez ran out of steam for the final round. We will see if he learned anything from that experience. He has the third-best Home Run Derby odds at +550. Let’s get to our top 2023 Home Run Derby picks.

2023 Home Run Derby Predictions

Betting on Alonso at +275 doesn’t present the best value. Ohtani leads the major leagues with 31 home runs this season.

With Ohtani absent in the Derby, Alonso and Luis Robert Jr. have the most home runs of the participants entered into the contest11. That said, Rodriguez and Adolis Garcia are our top picks to win.

In 2022, Rodriguez lost in the final round to Soto. Instead of pacing himself, the Mariner emptied the tank in the earlier rounds. He put on a show, but Soto’s strategy was the most effective.

This year, expect Rodriguez to have gained experience from that loss to use on Monday night. Rodriguez is slightly off his 2022 home run pace going into the Derby. He connected for a total of 28 long balls and has hit 13 in the first half of 202312.

Rodriguez is a solid bet, but the best value we identify is on Garcia. The Rangers’ outfielder, who will be starting in the All-Star Game due to Trout’s injury, is the most under-the-radar participant.

Garcia is sixth in the majors with 23 home runs. He carries a .262 batting average and 73 RBIs into the final day of the first half of the season13. The first-time All-Star is one of the hottest hitters entering the Home Run Derby.

Since June 26, Garcia has connected for six home runs. Three of those long balls were from July 3 to July 714. Look for the 30-year-old Cuban to factor into this event.

Currently, he is on a one-year $747,760 contract15. With the Home Run Derby winning $1 million, he should have plenty of motivation. Garcia is a top bargain to win the Home Run Derby at +650.

The Bet

2023 Home Run Derby Prop Bets

We aren’t finished with the MLB All-Star Game odds just yet. For our final Home Run Derby bets, prop betting odds at BetUS are taking the spotlight.

Distance of Longest Home Run

Over 492.5 Feet+100
Under 492.5 Feet-130

Unsurprisingly, the longest home runs in the Home Run Derby have occurred in Denver at Coors Field. In 2021, Soto hit a 520-foot-long ball to break the distance record.

Four of the five longest home runs in the Derby have come at Coors Field. Aside from Coors Field, Aaron Judge dominates at other ballparks.

He owns the four longest home runs of all time in parks other than Coors Field. Judge’s longest deep ball was a 513-foot bomb at Miami in 2017. Judge is the only participant to hit a home run over 500 feet outside of Colorado16.

T-Mobile Park, formerly known as Safeco Field, hasn’t been known as the friendliest hitter’s park. In 2018, Mike Zunino demolished an Ian Kennedy fastball for a 470-foot home run. This continues to stand as the longest home run ever at T-Mobile Park17.

Last year, Soto had the longest home run with a 482-foot-long ball at Dodger Stadium18. Without Judge and Ohtani in the Derby, the longest home run should sneak Under 492.5 feet.

The Bet

Player With Longest Home Run

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.+200
Pete Alonso+350
Luis Robert Jr.+350
Adolis Garcia+650
Julio Rodriguez+650
Randy Arozarena+950
Mookie Betts+1600
Adley Rutschman+1800

For the longest home run prop bet, we are shortlisting the Blue Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the White Sox Luis Robert Jr.

Launching a ball more than 492 feet will be tough, but they should have at least a couple of deep bombs that get close. Guerrero Jr. has consistently been hitting deep home runs in games.

In 2021, the Blue Jays’ star had a career-long 456-foot home run19. One year later, Guerrero Jr. broke his record with a 467-foot monster shot against the Rangers’ Spencer Howard20.

Earlier this season, he smashed a 450-foot dinger over the Green Monster in Boston21. Vladdy can go deep, but hasn’t matched Robert Jr.’s longest mark.

Robert Jr. blasted a 487-foot home run off Mike Fiers in October 2020. It is the longest home run ever hit at the Oakland Coliseum, which may stand with the A’s likely moving to Las Vegas22.

Only days ago, on July 5, Robert Jr. sent a 450-foot home run over the fence against the Blue Jays’ Chris Bassitt. This was the White Sox’ longest home run of the season23.

Vlad Jr. makes sense as the favorite at +200. He is likely to have a big night. However, you can get better value on Robert Jr. at +350 odds.

The Bet

Total Home Runs In Derby

Over 274.5-115
Under 274.5-115

It is tough to watch the Home Run Derby and actively cheer for players to whiff instead of hit moonshots all night. Fortunately, we expect plenty of home runs in Seattle on Monday night.

Judge and Ohtani are absent, but there are likely to be plenty of motivated players in the 2023 Home Run Derby. An extra million bucks for Randy Arozaren, Adley Rutschman, and Garcia is large in relation to their current contracts.

Of course, the rest of the lineup in the Home Run Derby carries plenty of natural talent. It should be a perfect night for baseball, as the temperatures hover below 70 degrees with little wind.

Launching 500-foot home runs will be tough, but plenty should get over the fence at T-Mobile Park. Bet on the Over and bank on a long light of fireworks in Seattle.

The Bet
OVER 274.5


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  2. Aaron Judge won’t attend any All-Star festivities in Seattle | New York Post. Retrieved From “https://nypost.com/2023/07/07/aaron-judge-wont-attend-any-all-star-festivities-in-seattle/

  3. Mike Trout injury: Angels star undergoes surgery for wrist fracture, expected to be out four to eight weeks | CBS Sports. Retrieved From “https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mike-trout-injury-angels-star-undergoes-surgery-for-wrist-fracture-expected-to-be-out-four-to-eight-weeks/

  4. Texas Rangers have 5 All-Star starters after Garcia added along with Baltimore’s Hays | NBC Sports. Retrieved From “https://www.nbcsports.com/mlb/news/rangers-have-five-all-star-starters-after-garcia-added-along-with-baltimores-hays

  5. Nathan Eovaldi Stats, Fantasy & News | Texas Rangers. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/player/nathan-eovaldi-543135

  6. Atlanta Braves Schedule | Atlanta Braves. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/braves/schedule/2023-07

  7. Sean Murphy Stats, Fantasy & News | Atlanta Braves. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/player/sean-murphy-669221

  8. Corbin Carroll Stats, Fantasy & News | Arizona Diamondbacks. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/player/corbin-carroll-682998

  9. 2023 MLB Player Hitting Stat Leaders | MLB.com. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/stats/batting-average

  10. 2023 MLB Player Pitching Stat Leaders | MLB.com. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/stats/pitching?sortState=asc

  11. 2023 MLB Player Hitting Stat Leaders | MLB.com. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/stats/home-runs

  12. Julio Rodriguez Stats, Fantasy & News | Seattle Mariners. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/player/julio-rodriguez-677594#stats-block

  13. Adolis Garcia Stats, Fantasy & News | Texas Rangers. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/player/adolis-garcia-666969

  14. Adolis Garcia Game Logs | Texas Rangers. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/player/adolis-garcia-666969?stats=gamelogs-r-hitting-mlb&year=2023

  15. Adolis Garcia Contract Details, Salaries, & Earnings | Spotrac. Retrieved From “https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/texas-rangers/adolis-garcia-27845/

  16. Longest homers in Home Run Derby history | MLB.com. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/news/longest-homers-in-home-run-derby-history

  17. The 10 Longest Home Runs at T-Mobile Park | The Ballpark Guide. Retrieved From “https://www.theballparkguide.com/blog/2023/01/14/the-10-longest-home-runs-at-t-mobile-park-the-ballpark-guide/

  18. Here were the longest homers in the 2022 MLB Home Run Derby | NBC Sports Chicago. Retrieved From “https://www.nbcsportschicago.com/mlb/chicago-cubs/here-were-the-longest-homers-in-the-2022-mlb-home-run-derby/328615/

  19. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. launches MOONSHOT 456 feet! (Longest home run of career!) | MLB YouTube Channel. Retrieved From “https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cf9AEkaQWUI

  20. 467 feet for Vlad Jr.! Vladimir Guerrero Jr. DESTROYS one for a long homer! | MLB YouTube Channel. Retrieved From “https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVVvhhtpB3w

  21. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 450-foot HR | MLB.com. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/video/vlad-guerrero-jr-s-450-foot-hr

  22. Luis Robert Blasts 487-Foot Home Run to Give White Sox Early Lead over A’s in Game 3 | Sports Illustrated. Retrieved From “https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/10/01/luis-robert-home-run-white-sox-video-american-league-wild-card-series-game-3

  23. WATCH: Luis Robert Jr. wows with 450-foot home run | NBC Chicago. Retrieved From “https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/watch-luis-robert-jr-wows-with-450-foot-home-run/3180046/

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Kyle Eve
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Kyle Eve is a seasoned pro of The Sports Geek. Since joining the team in 2012, Kyle, has covered some of the biggest sporting events in the world. From the Super Bowl and World Series to March Madness, the NBA Finals, Kentucky Derby, and many more, Kyle has provided reliable analysis for millions of readers. After dedicating himself to hockey and football in high school, Kyle placed his first sports bet on his 18th birthday. Since then, he has spent his entire adult life devoting himself to becoming the best sports bettor and casino gambler possible. Kyle is from Windsor, ON, Canada

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