The 2024 MLB over/under wins betting odds are one of the best barometers before the start of the baseball season. The best MLB sportsbooks have published their totals for the upcoming campaign, so I had the opportunity to dissect them.
I see multiple good opportunities based on the lines and my predictions, so I share my MLB win total bets below.
Texas Rangers 2024 Over/Under Odds and Predictions
- Over 89.5 Wins (-130)
- Under 89.5 Wins (+100)
The Texas Rangers enter the 2024 MLB season as the reigning World Series champs. Are the Rangers set to have a World Series hangover and regress after reaching the pinnacle of baseball?
Last season, they won 90 regular season games to finish at 90-72 alongside the Houston Astros in the AL West. The Rangers’ Over Under MLB wins total was 81.5 in 2023, so they easily exceeded that mark.
Texas went on an incredible run through the postseason to beat the Arizona Diamondbacks in five games. Despite this, the Rangers have the sixth-best World Series betting odds in 2024 and a line lower than 90 wins.
Let’s see if that makes sense.
Hitting Analysis
The Rangers have an excellent problem to have going into this season. There are only so many spots in the lineup, and the squad features a plethora of young studs who are looking for a spot on the Opening Day roster.
The Rangers have not one but two top contenders to win the AL Rookie of the Year award. While Evan Carter is among our MLB Rookie of the Year predictions, teammate Wyatt Langford is also a leading candidate to impress the voters.
Evan Carter leadoff bomb. 💪🤠
(via @Rangers) pic.twitter.com/WWL0pCILQg
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) March 5, 2024
This is on a team that already had no issues finding offense up and down the lineup. In 2023, the Rangers scored 5.46 runs per game for third in MLB. With 5.85 runs per game at Globe Life Field, they were the highest-scoring home team in baseball1.
Corey Seager, who is among the favorites to win AL MVP, returns with potent hitters Marcus Semien, Josh Jung, and Adolis Garcia. The offense will do its job in contributing to the Rangers’ 2024 MLB win totals, cruising past 90 wins.
Pitching Analysis
The chief concern for the Rangers’ 2023 postseason bid was that they didn’t have enough pitching.
However, that did not prevent the Rangers from catching fire at the right time. In the absence of a Cy Young contender, the Rangers will face similar criticism in 2024.
Rangers’ Starting Rotation:
- Nathan Eovaldi
- Jon Gray
- Andrew Heaney
- Dane Dunning
- Cody Bradford
The Rangers may not have a true ace in their rotation, but they have consistency. From Nathan Eovaldi to Dane Dunning, there shouldn’t be many surprises. They’ll give the Rangers an ERA between 3.50 to 4.20.
Rangers 2024 MLB Over/Under Win Prediction
The Rangers have ample firepower to do huge damage in 2024. There isn’t an opposing pitching staff in MLB that will be interested in facing this team.
Even without an ironclad rotation, the Rangers’ bats will provide the pitching with strong run support. I am predicting 93 or 94 victories to cash the Rangers’ MLB Over Under wins bet in 2024.
New York Yankees 2024 Win Total Odds and Predictions
- Over 93.5 (-115)
- Under 93.5 (-115)
The New York Yankees are always a squad that goes into the year with plenty of hype. With the acquisition of Juan Soto, this season won’t be any different.
Expectations are sky-high in the Bronx and the only solution this year for Yankees fans is a World Series. Three of the best players in baseball are all on the Yankees: Soto, Aaron Judge, and Gerrit Cole.
According to the latest Cy Young Award odds, Cole is favored to repeat as the AL Cy Young winner. Meanwhile, Soto and Judge are regarded as top contenders to win AL MVP honors.
Hitting Analysis
The Yankees are a juggernaut at the top of the lineup. After DJ LeMahieu leads off, the team turns to Soto and Judge. That is a tough spot to get through for pitchers.
The key for the Yankees could be how Giancarlo Stanton responds after a terrible season. In 2023, he had by far the worst season of his career. His .191 batting average, .275 OBP, and .420 SLG are all career lows2.
If Stanton can turn things around even moderately, the Yankees’ offense will be in tremendous shape after disappointing last season with just 4.15 runs per game. It was a letdown, but I have confidence they’ll bounce back resoundingly this season.
With Judge and Soto leading in the MLB MVP betting odds markets, the Yankees could conceivably have the first and second vote-getters.
Pitching Analysis
The Yankees are banking on another star player bouncing back in 2023. This one’s in the starting rotation, as they need Carlos Rodon to snap back to top form.
In the offseason, the franchise bolstered the starting rotation with the addition of veteran Marcus Stroman. If Rodon, Stroman, and the defending AL Cy Young winner are all at their best, this will be a difficult pitching staff to neutralize.
Yankees’ Starting Rotation:
- Gerrit Cole
- Carlos Rodon
- Marcus Stroman
- Nestor Cortes
- Clarke Schmidt
The top four in the rotation have all shown in the past that they can be elite. Even down to Nestor Cortes, who also had a down season in 2023.
After posting an ERA of 2.90 in 2021 and a 2.44 ERA the following year, Cortes fell off with an ERA of 4.97 in 20233. The Yankees have the makings of the best rotation in baseball, but it will all have to come together at the same time.
Yankees 2024 MLB Season Win Totals Prediction
The Yankees have the talent to be the best team in the Major Leagues. No one will question the untapped potential of this squad, which includes a possible trip to the World Series.
100+ wins are within reach if they can avoid major injuries and Rodon and Stanton do their part. Realistically, the Yankees are looking at 95 wins, however.
Ultimately, the big Soto acquisition should push their 2024 Over/Under MLB wins beyond the total at the end of the regular season.
Arizona Diamondbacks 2024 Over Under Wins and Predictions
- Over 83.5 Wins (-130)
- Under 83.5 Wins (+100)
The Diamondbacks defied expectations and the odds to win the NLCS in 2023. They couldn’t finish the assignment in the World Series, but it was a season to remember in the desert.
Now, Arizona doesn’t have the luxury of playing under the radar. Teams won’t underestimate them after appearing in the World Series. Nevertheless, the Diamondbacks are confident that they can go on another run.
According to their MLB projected win totals, the Diamondbacks are expected to finish roughly around their 84-78 record from last season.
Hitting Analysis
Carroll is looking to build on a ROY campaign and turn it into an MVP trophy. Most MLB betting sites list Carroll at roughly +2000 odds to win MVP. It’s a longshot, but if Carroll shows signs of improvement, he could be in the discussion.
Only one player in MLB history has had 50+ steals, 25+ homers, and 10+ triples in one MLB season and it was rookie Corbin Carroll. 😮pic.twitter.com/TV2ulw8zoD
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) March 2, 2024
The Diamondbacks also signed former Dodger Joc Pederson to a one-year, $12.5 million deal. He is a 31-year-old veteran with a bit of pop left in his bat. After playing in the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park in San Francisco, Pederson’s numbers dipped in 2023.
He should be back in solid form with his new team in the NL West. Pederson and Christian Walker will be valuable assets batting behind Carroll in the lineup.
Pitching Analysis
The Diamondbacks’ pitching staff is led by NL CY Young hopeful Zac Gallen. In six seasons, Gallen has posted an ERA of 3.21 with a 1.12 WHIP across 115 games.
Following Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and the newly acquired Eduardo Rodriguez should offer the Diamondbacks a capable 1-2-3 punch.
Diamondbacks’ Starting Rotation:
- Zac Gallen
- Merrill Kelly
- Eduardo Rodriguez
- Brandon Pfaadt
- Ryne Nelson
If Brandon Pfaadt is ready for MLB, the Diamondbacks’ pitching could be a weapon. He is the top pitching prospect in their farm system and received rave reviews throughout Spring Training.
Diamondbacks 2024 MLB Season Win Totals Prediction
Many bettors are wagering on the demise of the Diamondbacks. After an improbable NLCS title, there is talk that the Snakes will run into a wall this season.
At a minimum, they should match their MLB win totals of 84 games from last season. For my Diamondbacks’ 2024 MLB Over/Under win predictions, I am siding with the Over 83.5 wins.
Miami Marlins 2024 Win Total Odds and Predictions
- Over 78.5 Wins (+100)
- Under 78.5 Wins (-130)
Spending money on a high payroll doesn’t always equal results, but some teams take that too seriously. The Oakland Athletics and Miami Marlins seem allergic to opening up their wallets regardless of their situation.
The Marlins will be amongst the clubs with the lowest payrolls going into the 2024 MLB season. Not entirely shocking, but the team’s payroll will be lower than after the trade deadline last year.
Additionally, the Marlins received bad news regarding ace Sandy Alcántara. The 2022 NL Cy Young starting pitcher will be out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Hitting Analysis
After a season with 4.07 runs per game, the Marlins are not expected to see much improvement offensively. They finished 28th offensively, and that is likely where you will be able to find them this season, too.
"Ellos mienten, yo soy un 100" 😂#MLBTheShow pic.twitter.com/YdxXoUy7IN
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) March 7, 2024
It isn’t all bad, however. Luis Arraez is a talented infielder and one of the better leadoff men in the Major Leagues. The 26-year-old will be paired with Tim Anderson at the top of the order to give the Marlins a threat.
However, the lack of depth at the bottom of the order should cause issues for the Marlins frequently. Josh Bell and Jake Burger follow Arraez and Anderson in the lineup with decent power, but there may not be a 35-home run hitter for the organization in 2024.
Pitching Analysis
Alcántara will be absent from a rotation that likely would have been a fairly stout unit. The pitching staff is solid without Alcántara, but it’s not elite without the star.
Marlins’ Starting Rotation:
- Jesus Luzardo
- Eury Perez
- Braxton Garrett
- J. Puk
- Edward Cabrera
The onus will fall on the pitchers to find wins for the Marlins this season. I expect plenty of more one and two-run losses in 2024. There is reason to feel optimistic about this rotation, but they won’t get much run support regardless.
Marlins 2024 MLB Season Win Totals Prediction
If you want exciting baseball, it’s probably best to look away from the Marlins. They will be involved in more 3-2 and 4-2 games than most clubs.
After winning 84 games a season ago, the lack of pop in the Marlins’ lineup is hampering their 2024 MLB win totals. The lifeless offense will be responsible for a lot of runners being stranded on the bases.
Alcántara gives the Marlins more than 80 wins, but he will be watching from afar in 2024. My MLB Over Under win predictions have the Marlins failing to reach 79 wins.
Where To Bet On MLB Win Totals?
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Sources:
MLB Stats – MLB Team Runs per Game | TeamRankings.com. Retrieved From “https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/runs-per-game”
Giancarlo Stanton Stats | MLB.com. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/player/giancarlo-stanton-519317”
Nestor Cortes Stats | MLB.com. Retrieved From “https://www.mlb.com/player/nestor-cortes-641482”
