Naoya Inoue vs. Marlon Tapales Odds and Predictions

Naoya Inoue vs. Marlon Tapales has all the makings of one of the best end-of-year boxing matches in recent memory. The two are scheduled to square off on December 26th for the undisputed super bantamweight title. Inoue (25-0) is also putting his undefeated record on the line in this highly anticipated fight.

Boxing betting sites have been accepting wagers on this fight for months. With the bout quickly approaching, now is the perfect time to place any last-minute wagers on this match.

Keep reading to see the latest Inoue vs. Tapales betting odds for this undisputed title fight. I will break down the best betting markets for this matchup and give you my predictions.

Naoya Inoue vs Marlon Tapales Odds

The following Inoue vs. Tapales odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Oddsmakers at most sports betting sites have Naoya Inoue (-1600) listed as a heavy favorite entering this fight. Inoue is undefeated and has earned 22 of his 25 career wins by KO.

Stepping into the ring with Inoue for this undisputed title fight is Marlon Tapales (+825). Tapales (37-3) has 19 KOs in his professional career. He is also currently the WBA (Super) and IBF super-bantamweight world champion.

Bovada’s Tapales vs. Inoue odds are competitive with the rest of the industry’s lines. However, this tremendous sportsbook also offers the best prop bets for this exciting title fight.

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Naoya Inoue Record

Inoue has fought 25 times in his professional career. He has only gone the distance in three of those fights. Inoue’s other 22 fights were ended via knockout.

Having the majority of his wins via KO makes Inoue’s 25-0 record even more impressive. He is currently riding a six-fight KO streak and has not gone the distance since his win against Nonito Donaire in 2019.

Inoue has also proven that his knockout power translates to different weight classes. He has won titles in four different weight classes throughout his career. Inoue is just the second Japanese fighter to achieve that feat, joining the Kazuto Ioka.

All three of Inoue’s latest fights have put new gold around his waist. He defeated Donaire for a  second time in June 2022 to win the WBC bantamweight title. Inoue then beat Paul Butler for the WBO bantamweight title before defeating Stephen Fulton for the WBC and WBO super bantamweight belts.

Naoya Inoue Stats

Inoue’s stats throughout his career are undeniably impressive. In addition to having an unbelievably high finish rate, he has also made a point of overwhelming his opponents during his fights.

In his most recent appearance against Stephen Fulton, for instance, Inoue won via KO in the eighth round. During that fight, Inoue outlanded Fulton 114 to 47 in total strikes. Similarly, Inoue out-landed Paul Butler 151 to 38 in their title fight.

Just three fighters have gone the distance with Inoue sin his career. The only fighters to make it to a decision were:

• Nonito Donaire in November 2019
• David Carmona in May 2016
• Ryoichi Taguchi in August 2013

Inoue’s fight against Taguchi was just the fourth fight in his career. It was also for the Japanese light-flyweight belt, which became Inoue’s first title as a professional.

Marlon Tapales Record

Inoue will face another tough test this weekend as he takes on Marlon Tapales. The 31-year-old southpaw has fought 40 times in his professional career. Tapales has been victorious in 37 of those fights and has 19 KOs during his career.

He is currently the WBA (Super) and IBF super-bantamweight champion. Tapales won those belts in his last fight, a split-decision win over Murodjon Akhmadaliev.

During his current four-fight winning streak, Tapales has also defeated Jose Estrella, Hiroaki Teshigawara, and Eden Sonsona. All three of those wins came via KO or TKO. Tapales came up short in his fight against Ryosuke Iwasa, though.

Iwasa stopped Tapales in the 11th round, handing Tapales just the third loss of his career. That fight was in December 2019 and was for the vacant IBF interim super-bantamweight title.

Marlon Tapales Stats

Tapales has knocked out three of his last four opponents. Currently, he has 19 KOs and 18 decision wins in his professional career. Tapales also has two KO losses and one decision loss as a professional.

As I mentioned above, Tapales’ last loss came against Iwasa four years ago. Prior to that, Tapales was last defeated in February 2013 by David Sanchez in a majority decision. The first loss of his career came at the hands of Brix Ray in May 2009.

Tapales has won several titles during his professional career, including the following:

• WBA (Super) bantamweight title
• IBF super-bantamweight title
• WBO bantamweight title
• WBO Asia Pacific bantamweight title
• Philippines GAB light-flyweight title

All three of Tapales’ losses in his career have come in title fights. He was also stripped of his WBO bantamweight belt after failing to make weight for his title defense against Shohei Omori in their 2017 title fight.

Inoue vs. Tapales Prediction

Inoue is the bigger fighter and has a 2.5-inch reach advantage over Tapales. That could prove to be a difference maker as Inoue is also the harder hitter of the two.

I do not want to count Tapales completely out of this fight. After all, he is a veteran with 40 fights in his career. I think he is a worthy title challenger and can give Inoue a run for his money in this fight.

With that being said, I do not see a way for Tapales to win this fight against Inoue. The undefeated Inoue is at the top of his game and is my pick to win this undisputed title fight.

Inoue vs. Tapales Prop Bets

Inoue is a major favorite in the latest odds for his fight against Tapales. At -1600, there is not a lot of value in betting on Inoue’s moneyline odds. Luckily, you can get better payout odds using these Tapales vs. Inoue prop bets.

Inoue vs. Tapales Total Rounds

• Over 7.5 rounds (even)
• Under 7.5 rounds (-130)

One of the easiest prop bets to make for Inoue vs. Tapales is a wager on the total number of rounds. Bovada’s oddsmakers have this fight listed at over/under 7.5 rounds.

Inoue has unquestioned knockout power, and only three of his last 10 fights have gone eight or more rounds. However, Tapales is also an experienced fighter, and his last KO loss came in the 11th round. I think Tapales can hang around at least until the eighth round and would take the over in this bet.

Winning Round Prop Bet

Bovada also allows you to bet on the specific round you think the winner will claim victory in. You have to pick both the winner and the round the winning round with this prop wager.

Here are the top betting options in this prop bet:

• Inoue by decision (+550)
• Inoue in the 7th round (+700)
• Inoue in the 8th round (+750)
• Inoue in the 6th round (+750)
• Inoue in the 9th round (+800)
• Inoue in the 5th round (+800)

All of the top six betting options are for Inoue to win. The option with the shortest odds for Tapales is for him to win by a decision (+1600). Any other bet for Tapales to win has +10000 odds in this prop wager.

I think Inoue will win, but I think Tapales can hang around until the latter rounds of the fight. I would take Inoue by decision in this fight.

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

• Yes (+450)
• No (-750)

Inoue has made a name for himself by stopping 22 of his 25 opponents. That is a big reason why this fight is not projected to go the distance.

However, I think betting on a decision win by Inoue is worth the risk at +450 odds. Tapales is a veteran that has proven tough to knock out. I believe he will last into the late rounds of this fight and could hold on for all 12.

What Are Your Inoue vs. Tapales Predictions?

Naoya Inoue will put his undefeated record on the line against Marlon Tapales on December 26th in the Ariake Arena in Japan. This undisputed title fight is scheduled for 12 rounds. Check out the boxing wagers above to see my predictions, and then head over to Bovada to make your wagers on this exciting fight.