NBA DPOY 2026-27 Betting Preview: Odds, Favorites, Predictions

Victor Wembanyama (-400)

Victor Wembanyama at -400 is not a traditional value bet, but often the favorite is favored for a reason. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year is already the NBA’s most dominant defender at 22. At 7-foot-4, “Wemby” creates problems that few other players can match.

He has led the NBA in blocks in two of his first three seasons, and would have been done in all three if he didn’t suffer a blood clot in his second season. The numbers show how much he changes games on defense. Wembanyama averaged 3.6 blocks in the NBA Finals, although the Spurs lost to New York in five games.

Most insane defense from Victor Wembanyama 🤣🤣👽👽

Garland did all of that just to still get blocked by Wemby
pic.twitter.com/1Y9KqnoWPF

— HoopVillain😈 (@HoopVillain_) March 17, 2026

His -400 NBA DPOY odds suggest about an 80% chance of winning the award. That seems reasonable considering his size, talent, and track record. If he stays healthy, Wembanyama could (and probably will) win this award for years to come.

Health is the biggest concern. The San Antonio Spurs will need to manage his minutes and keep him on the court throughout the season.

From a betting standpoint, Wembanyama is the safest choice in the DPOY market. The payout is not exciting, but a healthy Wemby is head and shoulders above anyone else.

Chet Holmgren (+1000)

Chet Holmgren looks interesting, but his NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds become less appealing when compared with Wembanyama.

Holmgren is an excellent and flexible defender. He can protect the rim while also defending players farther from the basket. He was tied for second in blocks, and his ability to defend different types of players is a major strength.

Chet Holmgren All-Defense tape pic.twitter.com/RDD8zVU2Cz

— ͏ً (@pilgeousx) April 17, 2026

However, his rebounding numbers are weaker than what voters usually expect from a top defensive big man. That matters because DPOY voters often reward players who can impact the game in several ways. Holmgren will also have more to do as Oklahoma City lost from key players, such as Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins.

Holmgren also has the difficult job of beating Wembanyama. At +1000, bettors are counting on a major change in the award race, or “Wemby” not making the 65-game threshold.

Holmgren may be one of the league’s best defenders, but being second-best does not cash an NBA DPOY betting ticket. He looks like a pass unless you are specifically looking for a long shot.

Ausar Thompson (+2500)

Ausar Thompson is a prime example of why being an elite defender does not always lead to a DPOY award.

The Detroit Pistons’ guard is outstanding on the perimeter. His athletic ability helped him earn All-Defensive First Team honors last season, and he tied for the NBA lead in steals.

1 of my 1st Team Defense nominee tapes:

Ausar Thompson https://t.co/MFrKKSZ2Ps pic.twitter.com/s3qFG7f1Xz

— Hoopology (@hoopologyxx) April 5, 2026

History, however, works against him. Only one of the last 10 DPOY winners has been a guard or wing. Voters usually favor big men who protect the rim because they can affect more shots and possessions around the basket.

At +2500, the potential payout is attractive, but too many things would need to go right for Thompson to win.

Rudy Gobert (+3000)

Rudy Gobert has an impressive history with this award. The four-time DPOY winner remains one of the NBA’s best rim protectors. He earned another All-Defensive First Team selection while finishing sixth in blocks and fifth in rebounds.

The question is whether voters are ready to choose someone new.

Players with more 1st Team All-Defense selections than Rudy Gobert:

— Kobe
— Garnett
— Jordan
— Payton

That's it. pic.twitter.com/gN4SKkTdBO

— StatMuse (@statmuse) May 22, 2026

At 34, Gobert is not as quick on the perimeter as he once was (and he was never that quick). DPOY voters increasingly value defenders who can protect the rim and switch onto smaller players. That makes younger and more flexible defenders especially attractive.

Wembanyama creates another major problem for his French countryman, Gobert. He offers elite rim protection while also having the speed and length to defend away from the basket.

Gobert’s +3000 NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds may look tempting because of his four awards, but his chances of adding a fifth appear limited.

Bam Adebayo (+4000)

Bam Adebayo is an interesting long shot, but his path to winning the award is narrow.

Adebayo earned All-Defense Second Team honors and finished eighth in rebounds. His biggest strength is his versatility. He can defend several positions and play different roles within Miami’s defense.

Jason Timpf says Bam Adebayo is the MOST versatile defender in the NBA outside of Victor Wembanyama. 👀🔥

Switches onto guards. Battles bigs. Protects the rim. Guards in space.

Bam can do it all on defense. 🛡️ pic.twitter.com/o80W1QI357

— Hoops Den 🏀 (@hoopsden1) August 10, 2026

The addition of Giannis Antetokounmpo could also give Adebayo more freedom to move around the floor as a help defender. That could make his defensive impact even more noticeable.

Still, Adebayo would probably need a huge season to beat Wembanyama. Miami would likely need to become one of the NBA’s best defensive teams, Adebayo would need impressive individual numbers, and Wembanyama would probably need to fall short of expectations.

Even at +4000, that’s a long list of conditions, so I can’t back Bam.

Scottie Barnes (+5000)

Scottie Barnes is another talented defender facing a difficult DPOY race.

Barnes became the first player in seven years to record at least 100 steals and 100 blocks in the same season. Even with those impressive numbers, he finished fifth in DPOY voting.

Scottie Barnes game-sealing block on 7 foot Chet Holmgren. Will make All Defensive First Team this year and likely finish top 5 in DPOY voting.pic.twitter.com/VimZNw1yIZ

— jeffonsports (@jeff_on_sports) January 26, 2026

Barnes has the versatility to guard several positions and make plays all over the court. He may be able to roam more if the Kawhi Leonard trade goes through for Toronto. But with “Wemby” producing elite rim-protection numbers, Barnes requires more than individual statistics to move to the top of the ballot.

At +5000, the payout is tempting, but Barnes would need a major change in both voter opinion. Based on the current situation, the value is difficult to justify.