The 2025-26 NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds have been updated recently, and the latest prices point to one betting favorite at the top! After another injury derailed Victor Wembanyama’s DPOY campaign, he is off the board, and a new favorite has been listed.
What does the latest landscape look like in January? Let’s check out the betting odds, analyze the top favorites, and reveal my best NBA Defensive Player of the Year predictions.
NBA DPOY Betting Odds for 2025-26
The following NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Chet Holmgren (OKC) | -190 |
| Bam Adebayo (MIA) | +750 |
| Amen Thompson (HOU) | +1000 |
| Rudy Gobert (MIN) | +1200 |
| Ausar Thompson (DET) | +2000 |
| Scottie Barnes (TOR) | +2500 |
| Evan Mobley (CLE) | +2500 |
| Draymond Green (GSW) | +3000 |
| Carson Wallace (OKC) | +5000 |
| Dyson Daniels (ATL) | +5000 |
Chet Holmgren’s (-190) lead in the NBA Defensive Player of the Year race has grown over the last month. With Wembanyama battling injuries again, Holmgren’s DPOY odds have improved from +150 to -190 at top NBA betting sites.
This represents a shift in implied probability from 40% to 65.5%. Beyond Holmgren, there isn’t a clear challenger at the moment.
The Miami Heat’s Bam Adebayo (+750) is priced closest to Holmgren, but the gap remains substantial. At +750, Adebayo has just an 11.8% implied chance to win Defensive Player of the Year.
Before I go through the main players and share my DPOY predictions for 2026, you should know you can find the odds at Lucky Rebel by simply going to Sports > Basketball > NBA Awards > NBA Defensive Player of the Year.
NBA Defensive Player of the Year Betting Favorites
The NBA futures bet for DPOY views one player as a clear-cut betting favorite. However, there is a lot of basketball left to be played, and the NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds could look much different in April.
The DPOY honors are expected to come down to two players. The rest of the field are long shots, so let’s break down Adebayo and Holmgren’s chances:
Chet Holmgren (+150)
Holmgren has seized the opportunity in the wake of Wembanyama’s injury. He has established himself as the leading contender for DPOY after the Spurs’ center was a heavy favorite to win. Is he doing enough to warrant a bet at -190, though? Holmgren’s odds to win the award have shortened with some of that value gone, but he remains within a reasonable range at his current price.
In the same draft class as Wembanyama, Holmgren was selected with the second overall pick behind the Frenchman. It was a smart pick by the Thunder, as Holmgren is an important member of the franchise now and will likely stay that way in the future.
Chet: Protect the rim 🤝 rock the rim
Vote Chet 🗳️ https://t.co/0HE3nd0kPx pic.twitter.com/NUXmSVF2uE
— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) December 28, 2025
He was an integral part of the Thunder’s NBA title run last season and still has a key role this season. While he might not do enough to attack the NBA Most Improved Player odds, he’s certainly in for the DPOY award.
Holmgren has the talent to shine on both sides of the court, but his effort has been particularly impressive defensively. In addition to matching on with defenders, he has been excellent in transition on defense this season. Holmgren’s athleticism and length allows him to track down offenses who want to run and gun.
The 23-year-old Gonzaga alum’s impact goes beyond what shows up on the stat sheet. He is a terrific off-the-ball defender and doesn’t allow players to get comfortable offensively due to his length. Holmgren is also athletic enough to defend beyond the perimeter. He also has the numbers to back up his hustle.
In 2024-25, Holmgren recorded an average of 2.3 blocks and 0.7 steals per game. He was also effective on the boards with 6.5 defensive rebounds per contest last season. Holmgren is off to a strong start in 2025-26, with an average of 8.2 boards per game, 1.8 blocks, and 0.6 steals.
As I mentioned to start the season, Holmgren was the obvious choice to win DPOY if Wembanyama suffered a long-term injury.
The preseason favorite was on the sidelines for roughly a month and now he’s dealing with another ailment, so is that enough time and will the “Alien” remain healthy now? It seems like Wembanyama has approached a point where he’s missing too many games, which has removed him from the NBA DPOY betting markets.
When Wembanyama returned, the Spurs were cautious and had him coming off the bench. They will continue to be careful with him for the rest of the season. In other words, Holmgren is the clear favorite because Wemby is unlikely to play enough games.
Bam Adebayo (+750)
Although Adebayo’s betting odds to win NBA DPOY haven’t moved from +750, he’s bypassed Wembanyama and Evan Mobley. Mobley’s price has sunk considerably over the last month from +650 to +2500, while Adebayo has held strong.
However, is Adebayo going to find the second-half push to close the gap with Holmgren? He has a tall hill to climb, even though the Heat big man is delivering a season worthy of making him a legitimate contender. Similar to Holmgren, Adebayo is a versatile defender who has the talent to play all over the court.
The 6’9” 28-year-old from the University of Kentucky can cover every position. Along with blanketing players on the perimeter and keeping up with them on drives to the hoop, Adebayo can switch off and is an elite off-ball defensive player.
BAM WITH THE BLOCK ON SUGGS NEXT POSSESION
HE IS DOING EVERYTHING!!! https://t.co/RlTrZEIyvf pic.twitter.com/MB3e7Cwlwu
— Heat Central (@HeatCulture13) December 6, 2025
Additionally, Adebayo has the ability to be a strong shot blocker at the rim and rarely makes mistakes. Following four straight selections to the NBA All-Defensive Second Team, he was named to the First Team in 2024.
In 2025-26, Adebayo is averaging 9.7 rebounds, one steal, and 0.8 blocks per game. He has the numbers, but the stat sheet doesn’t tell the whole story regarding Adebayo. That said, the Heat are on the bubble for the playoffs right now, while the Thunder are rolling again.
As far as team success is concerned, it could be tough to justify Adebayo winning the NBA Defensive Player of the Year.
Best 2025-26 NBA DPOY Sleeper Bets
So, what if Holmgren goes down for an extended period of time? The race will be wide open, with the long shots taking over as the contenders. As we saw with Wembanyama, one injury could change everything.
With that in mind, let’s examine a new option that has a chance to win with long odds. Take a look at my top sleeper 2025-26 NBA DPOY betting picks:
Ausar Thompson (+2000)
Detroit’s Ausar Thompson’s NBA DPOY odds have been on the move over the last month. At +2800, in early December, Thompson is picking up steam and respect from bettors.
The Pistons are in the midst of their best season since the mid 2000s, and Thompson’s defense has played a key role in sparking this team. Thompson, selected with the fifth overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, has been rounding into form.
Just listen to this Ausar Thompson block 😳 pic.twitter.com/5kXzSaBs8m
— NBA (@NBA) October 23, 2025
Although he can be inconsistent as a scorer, Thompson’s engine is always running on the defensive floor. He has registered 5.8 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 0.8 blocks per game in 2025-26.
While he hasn’t put up staggering stats, his contributions go well beyond the numbers. He shuts down passing lanes and can provide significant help-side defense for the Pistons. His on-ball defense against any position on the floor is a plus, too.
It’s a big longshot at +2000, though Thompson is worth a small bet for your NBA Defensive Player of the Year picks. I bet on Thompson earlier at +2800 and I believe there is still value on his DPOY odds at +2000.
Evan Mobley (+2500)
The defending NBA DPOY has slipped in the race but can’t be underestimated. Evan Mobley’s odds have drifted from +1500 to +2500, which signals to me that it’s a smart strategy to include him in your NBA Defensive Player of the Year picks.
He’s been on a heater lately for the Cavaliers. Mobley has recorded 15 blocks over his last four games, an average of 3.75 per contest. On the season, he’s averaging 1.8 blocks per game in 2025–26. If he maintains this pace, the big man will finish with a career high in blocks.
Additionally, Mobley is contributing 9.1 rebounds and 0.9 steals per game. While he’s at his best in the paint, he’s athletic enough at 6’11” to defend anywhere on the floor.
At 24 years old, Mobley should have shorter odds than +2500, so there’s strong value on him to defend his DPOY title.
NBA Defensive Player of the Year Predictions and Betting Pick
I would argue that Wembanyama is the best defensive player in the NBA. However, it doesn’t mean much if he can’t stay healthy and play enough games. That’s the predicament he’s facing right now, and it’s opened the door wide for Holmgren.
The OKC Thunder forward is a step ahead of his competition, and he’s executed consistently from opening tip-off at the start of the season. I don’t foresee Holmgren regressing enough to allow Adebayo or another elite defender to catch up.
Nevertheless, as we’ve seen with Wembanyama, an injury can completely flip the NBA DPOY odds in an instant. While I recommend Holmgren at -190, don’t risk a huge wager with more than three months remaining in the regular season. All things considered, Holmgren is my top NBA DPOY betting pick!
At +300, that’s excellent value for the league’s most dominant defensive presence.
Where to Bet on the NBA Defensive Player of the Year 2025-26?
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