NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, May 21: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Jalen Brunson +500 (Cavs vs. Knicks)

Jalen Brunson looks like a strong target in the first basket market heading into Game 2 against Cleveland. While the Cavaliers have been the better team on opening tips throughout the season, the Knicks won the first possession in the opener. They will have the ball first multiple times this series, which opens the door for Jalen Brunson.

The Knicks star has opened the scoring in 20% of New York’s games this season, which is already an impressive hit rate for this type of market. What makes this spot even more appealing is the mindset Brunson is bringing into the series.

After taking over late in the opener and completely controlling the tempo against Cleveland’s guards, expect him to stay aggressive from the opening possession rather than easing into the game. I expect to see Brunson targeting Harden again, right from the start.

That mentality has defined his playoff run so far. Brunson is averaging just over 20 shot attempts per game in the postseason and fired up 29 shots in the series opener. When a player is handling that kind of volume and confidence, backing him at +500 to score first carries plenty of value.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.