NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, June 10: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Victor Wembanyama +300 (Spurs vs. Knicks)

For Game 4 of the NBA Finals, Victor Wembanyama once again stands out as one of the best first basket bets on the board as the San Antonio Spurs take on the New York Knicks at +300 odds.

After cashing his first basket prop in Game 3, Wembanyama is in a prime position to deliver again. The Spurs continue to dominate at center court, leading the NBA with a remarkable 78.6% jump ball win rate, while the Knicks have managed just 51.5%. San Antonio has already won two of the first three opening tips in this series, putting the ball in its hands to start games.

Vic had himself a night at MSG!

📊: 32 PTS | 8 REB | 6 AST | 3 BLK | 2 STL pic.twitter.com/f9M4fS0xi7

— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) June 9, 2026

That advantage is especially important when the Spurs have a player like Wembanyama. San Antonio frequently looks to establish its superstar early, whether through a quick touch in the paint, a pick and roll action, or a perimeter look. His ability to score from virtually anywhere makes him one of the most dangerous first basket candidates in the league.

Wembanyama has been outstanding throughout the Finals, averaging 27.3 points per game on 48.1% shooting while leading the Spurs with 18.4 field goal attempts per contest. His combination of volume, versatility, and involvement from the opening possession makes him an ideal first scorer target.

With San Antonio likely controlling the tip and looking to get its franchise player going early, Wembanyama at +300remains one of the strongest NBA first basket bets for Game 4.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.