This week on the DP World Tour, we head to Madrid for the Open de Espana, with the tournament taking place at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid. The venue has become very familiar to us over the years, with the Black Course hosting numerous editions of the Open de Espana and plenty of other big events.
It is a really nice test of golf too, with the course designed by Javier Arana and measuring around 7,112 yards as a par 71 this week. We have another really strong field assembled for this year’s tournament too, with Jon Rahm obviously the headline act.
Rahm is a three-time winner of the Open de Espana, having won here in 2018, 2019 and 2022, so he clearly loves this tournament and knows exactly how to get around this golf course. Ludvig Aberg is also in the field, while defending champion Marco Penge returns to try and keep his title.
It’s going to be competitive, but what are the best bets for Open de Espana this year? Here’s a quick look at my squad, before I talk about the course.
Ginger Joe’s Open de Espana Best Bets Snapshot
| Golfer | Odds to Win |
|---|---|
| Marco Penge | +2800 |
| Jacob Skov-Olesen | +3500 |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller | +7500 |
| Dan Bradbury | +10000 |
| Maximilian Steinlechner | +20000 |
Open de Espana Course Analysis
As for the golf course itself, Club de Campo is a really interesting test. It is a fairly tight, tree-lined layout, with plenty of undulation around the course, and you need to be able to control your ball from tee to green.
There are plenty of bunkers to avoid and the greens can be quite tricky, so I don’t think this is a course where you can simply overpower it with distance. Instead, I want players who can consistently put the ball in the right positions and give themselves plenty of opportunities with their irons.
The big thing for me this week is approach play. I want excellent iron players who can consistently hit their approach shots close enough to create birdie opportunities. You also need to be reasonably accurate off the tee because of the many trees around the course, while strong putting is another attribute I definitely want to see.
The course can produce some low scores when conditions are right, so I also want players who can convert those opportunities once they create them.
The other thing I really like looking at here is course form. This is one of those venues where having previous experience of the course can be a huge positive, and we have seen plenty of players perform well here multiple times.
Rahm is the obvious example, but there have been plenty of other players who have produced strong performances here on multiple occasions. With the course being fairly unique, I think previous experience is worth taking into account.
Let’s get into the squad now then, but before we do, make sure you sign up to The Sports Geek completely free for more of my golf previews, tips and analysis throughout the season. I also recommend checking Beat the Geek, a free NFL pickem contest with $500 on the line every week.
1. Marco Penge (+2800)
There was absolutely no way I was leaving Marco Penge out of my squad this week as he returns to defend his Open De Espana title. Not only am I a huge Marco Penge fan, but we know how much he enjoyed himself around this golf course last year.
Penge produced a brilliant performance to win here 12 months ago. On top of that, he has actually been in pretty good form again this year. The English golfer had good results on the DP World Tour having finished tied 6th in the British Masters, but also delivered top 10s on the PGA Tour too.
Outside of his obvious credentials here, Penge is for me, the most enjoyable player to watch play golf. Not only does he hit it a mile, have an amazing touch around the greens, and putt consistently well, but his calm demeanour is something to be admired.
To me that gives him an extra touch of class, and it’s a big asset to have. I think this week will mean a lot to Marco, and he will come here feeling like superman arriving as champion. Defending your title is never easy, but I really believe in him as a player, and think he will give it a big go this week. A short and sweet reasoning, but there is nothing not to like about his chances this week.
2. Jacob Skov-Olesen (+3500)
Something I don’t talk about too often in my articles or videos is that sometimes, golfers just seem to suit a particular type of grass, a particular set of conditions, or even a particular country. I think we saw that here last year with Marco Penge, and I have a suspicion that Jacob Skov Olesen could be in the same category this week. I think he is going to absolutely love it out here this week.
Usually, we start with the long game, but in Skov Olesen’s case this week, it is the approach and short game stuff that interests me the most. Spanish players are generally known for having very good hands around the greens, and the surfaces here are something they have grown up playing on year after year.
Well, Skov Olesen is from Denmark, but he has what I would describe as Spanish hands. He can play all sorts of nippy little shots around the greens and get the ball to stop nicely. With the amount of elevation changes on these greens, I think he will really enjoy being able to flick those spinny approach shots into them.
Now, look, the way the course sets up, I am a touch concerned about his game off the tee. If he can keep the ball in play, whether that is on the fairway, fringe or even in the rough, I expect him to go on a big birdie run on more than one occasion this week, and that could make him a serious contender.
I think the winning score will be somewhere between 13 and 18 under par. The fact that I see Skov Olesen as one of only a few players in this field capable of posting a really deep number around this golf course is a big reason why I like him.
His finishing rounds have been a big let-down recently, but I believe he could be in a very strong position heading into round four on this occasion. He is still looking for that first win, but he keeps getting closer, and I have a feeling it could finally be his week. He struggled here last season, but he is a different player now, and I’m expecting a big tournament from Skov.
3. Niklas Norgaard Moller (+7500)
Norgaard Moller has been on my radar for the last few weeks and for a moment, I thought he was going to win the Alfred Dunhill last week. He has been putting in some good performances this season, and even though he hits it a long way, he is a player with more than just length. Norgaard Moller is actually a very good iron player too.
This is a course that should bring out some of the better strengths in his game, and I like the fact that this isn’t a bombers course. I actually think Norgaard Moller being forced to play a touch more conservatively will just give that balance to his game, that will bring out a solid performance over four rounds. I have noticed this about him on a few occasions this season.
This was the case in the British Masters when he finished runner up a couple of months ago and, when he finished tied second last week. He wasn’t able to go out there and attack, he just had to take a touch off everything, and he will be forced to do the same this week.
I think that would bring out more consistency in his game in the long run too, but Norgaard Moller comes here in good form anyway. I liked what I saw from him last week, and I’d be disappointed if he couldn’t get into the mix here whilst he has to play at a touch less power, and whilst his game is in such good shape.
4. Dan Bradbury (+10000)
Dan Bradbury has missed eight cuts in his last ten appearances on the DP World Tour, which is a bit of a surprise. However, he bounced back in a big way at the Open de France last week, shooting a final round 64 to finish tied 14th. I think that could be all it takes for Dan’s game to click again.
I feel like he has just lost his confidence somewhat, but we have seen with Bradbury that when he is playing well, confidence is a huge part of his game. So perhaps now is the time to get back onside with him. I really like his game from tee to green, and his putting is good enough to make him a contender when he gets himself high enough up the leaderboard.
He has won on the DP World Tour before, so we know he has the game to compete. I think he is worth chancing this week, especially after seemingly finding something with his swing last week.
That tied 14th finish will do him the world of good, and when you match his game up with this course, I think it fits just fine. I’ll take him at triple-figure odds this week and see if that confidence can carry him forward.
5. Maximilian Steinlechner (+20000)
Maximilian Steinlechner is the proper big-price play in my squad this week at 200/1, but I think it’s far too big for what’s seemingly on offer. This is a player who has already shown this season that he can compete on the DP World Tour, finishing seventh at the Austrian Alpine Open before going on to finish tied third at the KLM Open.
What I like about Steinlechner is that he is still developing, but we have already seen flashes of a really good game. That KLM Open performance was particularly encouraging, as he was right in the mix heading into the final round and eventually finished just three shots off the winner, but that experience will do him the world of good. He also put together four pretty solid rounds that week, which is important when you’re taking a player at this sort of price.
I think this course can suit him too. He doesn’t need to overpower it, and I like his ability to put together a solid tee-to-green performance and stay patient.
At +20000, I’m not asking him to become a different player overnight. I just need him to produce another one of those weeks where everything clicks, and given what we’ve already seen from him this season, I think that is certainly possible. For me, he is well worth a small play at the price.
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