WTA US Open 2024 Tennis Odds: Will Swiatek Bounce Back?

Belarusian star Sabalenka passed on the Olympics to focus on WTA Tour events. With Belarus under a ban at the Olympics, Sabalenka would have had to apply to earn an invite. Instead of going through the process, the 26-year-old native of Minsk entered the Citi Open in DC.

14 sets played, 14 sets won, the reigning champion retains her 👑!

Queen Aryna's second coronation caps a perfect fortnight at Melbourne Park.@SabalenkaA • @wwos • @espn • @eurosport • @wowowtennis pic.twitter.com/x7639RQr84

— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 27, 2024

Sabalenka is a two-time Grand Slam champion, with wins at the 2023 and 2024 Australian Open. Despite showing her mettle on a hard court in Australia, Sabalenka hasn’t been able to turn that success into a win at Flushing Meadows.

Her best result at a US Open occurred last year as a finalist against Coco Gauff. Although she came out of the gates firing with a 6-2 first set, Sabalenka ultimately dropped the match, 6-2, 3-6, 2-6, to the crowd favorite.

The Australian Open champ is 57-13 over the last two years on hard courts. Across all surfaces, Sabalenka holds a record of 87-23 since her first match in the 2023 season. In 2024, she has held up well at 30-9, with the quarterfinals pending at the Citi Open.

After skipping the Olympics, Sabalenka should be fresh for the challenge ahead. With this in mind, at +300, her women’s WTA US Open 2024 odds stand out as solid betting value!

Five-time Grand Slam winner Swiatek is ranked No. 1 on the WTA Tour. Four of her five titles are at the French Open on clay, with the other is from the 2022 US Open. Swiatek’s dominance on red is well-documented, but she hasn’t been at her best on hard courts.

Take these results in her previous five tournaments on a hard or grass course: Round 4, quarterfinals, Round 4, Round 3, and Round 3. Despite Swiatek’s questionable effort off the clay, she was the No. 1 seed in each of these events!

The same likely applies to this year’s WTA US Open. This is after Swiatek lost on her signature surface at Roland Garros in the Olympics at Roland Garros. The 23-year-old Warsaw, Poland, native was left devastated by her loss to Qinwen at Paris 2024.

After the loss, Swiatek was seen weeping in a post-match interview.

Iga Swiatek in tears after her loss to Qinwen Zheng at the Olympics. 💔

Very sad to see this. She wanted it so badly.

But she has to be so proud of what she’s done on this court.

4 Roland Garros titles at 23 years old is insane.

Chin up. ❤️

pic.twitter.com/u9YXtJfFJZ

— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) August 1, 2024

She was the favorite in the women’s Olympic tennis tournament, but failed to finish for the gold medal. How will Swiatek respond? Overall, Swiatek is 41-5 and 18-3 on hard courts on the WTA Tour in 2024, so it isn’t like she can’t win anywhere in the world.

Nevertheless, the Pole can’t get her head around when it comes to the later rounds. Until she can consistently win on a hard surface, I’d be leery of Swiatek as a betting favorite!

Gauff returns to the site of her first Grand Slam title last year at Flushing Meadows. The Georgia native was the first teenager to reach the semifinals since Serena Williams, and then became the first teenager to win the US Open, male or female, this century.

YOU GO COCO! pic.twitter.com/ztI2h0tdul

— US Open Tennis (@usopen) September 9, 2023

She’s been going over a bit of a hangover since that historic victory. The now 20-year-old hasn’t won a tournament in 2024. That said, she’s been competitive, with five semifinal appearances, including at the Australian Open, Paribas Open, BNL d’Italia, French Open, and ecotrans Ladies Open.

She was a favorite in some of these matches against Maria Sakkari and Jessica Pegula. However, it hasn’t mattered, as Gauff has had a forcefield between her and the final round this year. At Paris 2024, Gauff was left frustrated following an early exit versus Donna Vekic.

The visibly upset US Open winner called for a universal replay system to be implemented for tennis. At the moment, Gauff isn’t in nearly the same form as she was at this time last season. In fact, I backed Gauff to win the 2023 US Open due to her emerging confidence.

Now, however, I don’t see it with Gauff, who is clearly frustrated with how this year has played out. She has more Grand Slam titles in her future, but I’m not convinced that Gauff is ready to strike at the 2024 US Open! Give me Gauff at +1000 and then I’d start to consider her WTA US Open winner betting odds.

Japan’s Naomi Osaka won the first Grand Slam of her career in New York at Flushing Meadows in 2018. Since then, she added another US Open title in 2020, and two more at the Australian Open.

Osaka’s latest major championship came at the 2021 Australian Open. Marred by inconsistent form and mental health concerns, Osaka hasn’t been able to get back on the tennis world. In 2024, the 26-year-old from Osaka, Japan, holds an overall record of 16-12 and 8-6 on a hard court.

She has been held without a championship on the WTA Tour since the ASB Classic in early January. This was as the No. 1 seed in an event without Sabalenka or Swiatek.

Osaka was bounced from the Olympics in the opening round against Angelique Kerber. I don’t understand how Osaka has US Open 2024 women’s champion odds at +600 in her current form, so she is a clear pass at Bovada!