Women’s US Open 2026 Championship Odds: Can Sabalenka Three-Peat at Flushing Meadows?

Aryna Sabalenka looks like a strong candidate for the women’s US Open title, and is deserving of being favored. She has reached the US Open final three years in a row, and won the last two.

The world No. 1 is clearly well-suited to the challenges that come in this tournament. Hard courts are her best surface, and she has the physical and mental resilience to go all the way in a Grand Slam competition.

What an honor to be on the cover of @time ♥️ thank you for having me 🙏🏼 pic.twitter.com/UzuR7RkQTb

— Sabalenka Aryna (@SabalenkaA) August 13, 2026

Sabalenka has already won three titles in 2026, so she enters the US Open in good form. That momentum is important, especially because she has shown that she can play well under the pressure of Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Her loss in the round of 16 at the National Bank Open in Canada is one of the few concerns. She can also struggle with her emotions during close matches. Still, those issues don’t matter as much when you look at her US Open record. Winning the tournament two years in a row shows that she knows how to handle the pressure.

At +275, her odds suggest she has about a 27% chance to win. That seems a little low for the defending champion and top-ranked player on her favorite surface. The betting market may be putting too much weight on her loss in Canada. With her recent form, US Open success, and strong hard-court game, Sabalenka looks like a good bet.

Iga Świątek is a harder player to judge. She won the US Open in 2022 and recently won the National Bank Open on a hard court in Canada. However, her overall struggles on hard courts are still a concern. Since winning the US Open, she has not made it past the quarterfinals in New York.

“I want to dedicate this title to everyone who is dealing with judgement or hate. Keep pushing, keep growing, keep focusing on yourself and always remember what is ahead and might be possible.” 🥹

Iga Swiatek with a heartfelt message after winning the title. ❤️ #NBO26 pic.twitter.com/qJmAfgn8LB

— Tennis Channel (@TennisChannel) August 14, 2026

Her Grand Slam results in 2026 are another warning sign. Świątek is still ranked fifth in the world, but she has not played her best tennis at the biggest tournaments. Clay is her strongest surface, while hard courts have been less consistent for her. Winning in Canada is a positive sign, but one title does not erase those concerns.

The +600 women’s US Open odds may look attractive because Świątek is a former champion. Still, there may not be enough value at that price and quite frankly, I think she’s being overvalued. Sabalenka and others has been stronger at hard-court majors lately. Świątek is talented enough to make a deep run, but betting on her means ignoring several warning signs.

Coco Gauff is another difficult choice. She won the US Open in 2023, but her 2026 results raise concerns. She is still looking for her first tournament win of the year. Sabalenka has also beaten her twice recently, including a three-set victory in the final of the Miami Open. Gauff also lost to Elina Svitolina in the Australian Open quarterfinals.

Coco Gauff never backs down from a fight 💪 pic.twitter.com/nIWqfKKsIk

— Tennis365 (@tennis365com) August 17, 2026

Playing in front of the home crowd in New York could help Gauff. She has already shown that she can handle the pressure after beating Sabalenka in the 2023 US Open final. Her No. 4 ranking also shows that she remains one of the top players in the world.

However, the +800 odds may already account for those strengths. Gauff has not entered the tournament in winning form, which is usually a concern before a major.

A possible matchup with Sabalenka is another problem. Gauff may have to beat the tournament favorite to win the title, and while did it in 2023, Sabalenka has seven wins to six to Gauff in their head-to-head history. The +800 price is decent, but her recent results make it difficult to call her a strong value bet.

Elena Rybakina is an interesting option, but there are reasons to be careful. She has won two titles this season, including the Australian Open, where she beat Sabalenka in the final.

Rybakina has been playing at a high level, beating Naomi Osaka and Gauff in tough three-set matches in Canada. However, the US Open has been difficult for her. She has never made it past the fourth round in New York.

With 23 wins, Elena Rybakina leads the WTA in 1000-level match victories in 2026 💫

(via @OptaAce) pic.twitter.com/ZTiesETMh3

— TNT Sports (@tntsports) August 16, 2026

Her recent final loss to Świątek in Canada is another concern. Hard courts are supposed to be one of Rybakina’s strengths, but Świątek clearly outplayed her. It was not a close match, which could raise questions about Rybakina heading into the US Open.

Rybakina may be playing some of the best tennis of her career, but at +800, you need her to overcome both her a US Open history and the effects of her loss in Canada. The WTA US Open odds are reasonable, but other players may offer safer value.

Amanda Anisimova stands out as an intriguing sleeper at +2000, particularly given her history on hard courts and at the US Open. Hard courts have traditionally been her best surface. Anisimova proved she can contend in New York by reaching last year’s final before falling to Sabalenka in straight sets, although the second set went to a tiebreaker.

Her recent form has been inconsistent, but that is also part of what creates potential value at these WTA US Open odds. Anisimova reached the Australian Open quarterfinals earlier this season, showing that her aggressive game can still translate into deep runs at majors. When her power game is clicking, she has the ability to take the racket out of an opponent’s hands and compete with the best players in the field.

There is certainly risk at +2000, especially given her uneven results against elite competition this year. However, bettors do not need Anisimova to be the safest player in the field at these odds. They require her upside to outweigh what the market is pricing in. Her hard-court ability, Grand Slam experience, and previous success at Flushing Meadows make her an appealing sleeper for bettors looking beyond the favorites.

Alexandra Eala may lack the Grand Slam résumé of some US Open favorites, but her recent results make her one of the more interesting sleepers on the board at +2000. Her title run at the Mubadala D.C. Open showed exactly why bettors should pay attention, as she defeated established opponents including Jessica Pegula, Naomi Osaka, and Elina Svitolina.

Eala has yet to advance beyond the fourth round of a Grand Slam and suffered first-round exits at both the Australian Open and French Open in 2026. Those results make backing her a gamble, but they also help explain why bettors can get such a potentially rewarding number on a player whose level appears to be rising quickly.

At just 21, Eala may be approaching the type of breakthrough that can dramatically change how the betting market values a young player. Her recent success against accomplished opponents provides evidence that she can compete with the caliber of players she would encounter during a deep US Open run.

Backing Eala at +2000 means betting on upside rather than an established Grand Slam track record. For bettors willing to embrace that risk, her improving form and recent wins over high-level competition give her legitimate women’s US Open betting appeal as a sleeper at Flushing Meadows.