Building a successful underdog betting strategy is hard but also very rewarding. Recognizing the right moments to bet on an upset is a key component of being a successful bettor.
I share my tips for betting on underdogs to help you recognize potential upsets with a better accuracy!
My Top Underdog Betting Tips Overview
1. Look for Fatigued Favorites After Tough Schedule
Athletes are human and experience fatigue. This affects every team, including those with the best records. Fatigue is difficult to avoid, especially for teams on long road trips, playing back-to-back games, or coming off tough matchups.
In the NFL, for instance, favorites might overlook an opponent after facing a marquee team or an important matchup the previous week. Such games can drain a team’s physical and mental energy, leaving them vulnerable in their next game. The limited preparation time doesn’t help from a tactical standpoint either.
While this applies to all angles, it’s particularly useful for a strategy for betting on underdogs. Also, keep an eye out for “lookahead” spots, where favorites may be distracted by an upcoming big matchup and lack focus or energy for their current opponent.
2. Injuries and Suspensions Can Swing the Odds
Injuries and suspensions to key players have the potential to swing the odds and change the matchup completely. As a result, advantages that a favorite might have had could dissipate in the absence of star players. The betting public can be late to this news, so ensure you react before the money follows.
Also, I recommend taking note of injuries that can impact a team’s depth. This is markedly true for NBA teams that might have to play without a major contributor off the bench, or NFL teams thin at a certain position on the depth chart.
Odds don’t tend to shift as much for role players who are missing from the lineup to players, but such spots can have a critical impact on the scoreboard! Examine the entire situation, including if absentees play into the underdog’s strengths.
3. Conservative Bankroll Management Is a Must
Being patient and waiting for the right opportunities to bet on underdogs is one of the most important tips to keep in mind. Without conservative bankroll management and selecting your spots carefully, there’s little point in following other betting advice.
Even if you’re good at picking underdogs, you will often lose. You need a long enough runway to keep your bankroll alive for when upsets to happen and make up for the poor streaks that came before that.
4. Evaluate Styles and H2H History
Some teams have playing styles that simply don’t match up well against certain opponents. Even if a team is in last in the league or struggling, some underdogs consistently perform well against particular favorites.
Understanding these matchups is vital to a successful underdog betting strategy. Analyzing the head-to-head (H2H) history between teams reveals significant patterns that can guide betting decisions.
If a team has consistently failed to beat the same opponent from the position of a favorite, there might be more to it than a random night off. Whether it’s tactical or mental, certain teams and players simply struggle against specific opponents.
Whether it’s football, basketball, hockey, tennis, soccer, or any other sport, reviewing these matchups is an essential step every bettor should take before placing bets at the best sports betting sites.
5. Circle Games with Low Totals
Matchups that oddsmakers expect to be low scoring are important to consider for an underdog betting strategy. Low-scoring games usually provide less margin for error for favorites, especially in sports that involve point spreads.
When a game is expected to be a gritty, defensive struggle, underdogs have a better chance to stay close and potentially pull off an upset. A single mistake can quickly shift the advantage to the underdog in these scenarios.
In football, defensive battles are often decided by a field goal or less. Therefore, inflated point spreads in games with low over/under totals deserve serious consideration.
6. Research Underdog Trends and Data
Some teams excel in the underdog role, rising to the occasion when their backs are against the wall and matching up well against stronger opponents. While certain squads may struggle when favored, others are excellent bets when labeled as underdogs.
Incorporating underdog data, including trends against the spread (ATS) and moneyline, can enhance any strategy for betting on underdogs. Additionally, it’s wise to consider the betting records of head coaches in underdog situations.
This information can play a significant role in determining where to place your bets.
Is Betting on Underdogs Worth It?
Implementing an underdog betting strategy can be both rewarding and profitable. The high odds associated with underdog bets make each win very satisfying. However, wins will be rare and you will often experience long losing streaks.
If you get frustrated easily and would prefer more frequent wins, you shouldn’t target upsets.
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Good points! I didn’t find a lot of good sports betting advices but this is really right. Always have a look at the underdog first. We do this in german football bundesliga with success for years even if a lot of people think it’s easier to bet on favourite winners.