Building a sports betting model that produces profits is one of the most challenging things you’re ever going to do in gambling. It’s not always hard, but it takes a lot of effort and time.
But the effort and time you invest in building a good model will pay off for years to come. In this post, you will learn the exact method I used to build my successful sports gambling models.
I have multiple models for each sport that I bet on, so I can always test new ideas and statistics while continuing to use my profitable models. And you’re going to build multiple models too, if you want to win.
1. Start with Statistics
Every successful sport betting model starts with statistics. Some sports gambling models are 100% based on statistics, while others use stats as the base and then make adjustments based on outside information.
All of the sports gambling models I use are adjusted by what I see watching games. But adjustments aren’t made until after the model does the hard work with the numbers. I’m going to tell you more about how I adjust my models using what I see in games in the fourth section of this post. When you build a sports betting model, the challenge is determining the right statistics to use. A model that uses too many stats is just as bad as a model that doesn’t use enough stats.
I have many different models running simultaneously, and if you want to build winning models, you’re going to run multiple models. So, for example, I have the main model that I use to help me make betting decisions, and then I have other models that started with the model I use for betting purposes but have one variable changed.
You run both models until the second model either proves better or worse than your first model. Then, if the second model proves to be more profitable, it becomes your number one model.
Instead, you copy your model and change one thing, and then copy your model and change one thing in a new model. You keep building new models and replacing existing models when a new model is more profitable, and then you start copying and changing one variable of the new model.
2. Test Forever
When you use betting models, you have to test forever. Even if you have a model that wins consistently, there’s no guarantee that it’s going to continue being profitable forever. So you have to test your models constantly to find a better model and try to stay ahead of the sportsbooks.
Sportsbooks don’t use models the same way that gamblers do, but the sportsbooks track results and identify weaknesses. When a sportsbook identifies a place where they’re losing money, they do things to correct their weakness. And when a sportsbook corrects a weakness, it can make your models less profitable or not profitable at all.
As a simple example, many years back, a simple model worked profitably in the NFL. The model said that you should bet on every home team that was getting points. If you followed the model you made a profit for a couple of seasons.
So the sportsbooks adjusted the way they were setting lines on NFL home teams that were getting points. Now you can find value on some home teams that get points, but a model that says to bet on all home teams getting points is no longer profitable.
The mistake many sports gamblers make when they develop a winning model is assuming that the model is going to be profitable forever. And when the model stops being profitable, they have no idea how to correct the model.
If you’re constantly testing your model and running multiple models, you always have another model or two ready to put into play. If you’re going to run sports betting models, you have to test constantly and never stop testing.
3. Run Multiple Models at the Same Time
I know I’ve touched on this quite a bit already in this post, but you have to run multiple models simultaneously.
As you test models and find ones that don’t work, you eventually work with a smaller number of models. But you should always shave at least 10 to 20 models running and testing new combinations.
When you run a new model, it might not look like it’s going to work at first. But instead of immediately trashing the model, you might be able to add another variable that makes it profitable. But the only way to know is to keep the model, add a variable, and test it.
Your first goal is to find a model that works, and then your main goal is to make your model better. And a secondary goal is to create a new model that can replace the current model if it stops working.
The last thing you need to know before moving to the next section is that if a model stops working, don’t trash it right away. Instead, replace it with a better model and start testing variables to see if the previous model can be tweaked so it can show a profit again.
It might seem like a lot of work to run multiple models, but once you set them up, you should use a spreadsheet program to do all of the difficult work. It does take a lot of work to run sports betting models, but you can use tools to help you with your work.
4. Adjust with Your Eyes
I’ve never been able to create a model based solely on statistics that shows much profit. But I know a few sports gamblers who have created 100% statistical models that make money.
My models show me a predicted score or spread for each game, and then I look at all the information I have about players, injures, travel, weather, and other things, and combine this with what I know from watching games.
Here’s an example from the 2021 NFL season that shows why it’s important to make adjustments to your statistical models. The Dallas Cowboy’s main running back, Elliot, got hurt during the season. He didn’t go on the injured list or miss any games, but if you watched the games, he was good one week and then not great the rest of the season.
If you were relying 100% on stats, it takes several weeks for his reduced production to have much effect on a model. But you could see his reduced production as soon as it happened if you watched the games.
Of course, you want a model that can win without adjustments, but a good model can be made into a great model with a few adjustments.
Creating a winning sports gambling model isn’t easy, and your work is never done, but it’s worth it in the long run because once you figure it out, you can make money using your model for years.
And building your model is a fairly straightforward process. Start with all of the statistics you can find and test everything over and over. Then, as you test your models, you learn what works and what doesn’t work.
Once you have one or more good models, you can make minor adjustments based on what you see in games and beat the sportsbooks. And you can build models for every sport you bet on for even more success.