The 2025 NBA Cup odds are topped by the defending NBA champions, Oklahoma City. But as last season showed, the best teams in the league don’t always win, as OKC lost to Milwaukee in the final. Most franchises prioritize player load so early in the season, which opens the door to surprising results in a single-game elimination format.
Let’s dig into the 2025 NBA Cup winner odds and examine the favorites, contenders, and sleepers before I share my predictions for the eventual winner!
2025 NBA Cup Winner Odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | -105 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | +550 |
| Orlando Magic | +675 |
| New York Knicks | +800 |
| Toronto Raptors | +1000 |
| Miami Heat | +1500 |
| San Antonio Spurs | +2000 |
| Phoenix Suns | +4000 |
The third edition of the NBA Cup odds has a familiar team at the top of the board at NBA gambling sites. Oklahoma City (-105) are resounding favorites, increasing their implied probability to win from 43.5% to 51.2%. The Thunder are running away from the competition this season, but can they claim the Cup?
The Los Angeles Lakers (+550) are next with an implied probability of 15.4%, which is up from 11.8% before the quarterfinals were set. They’re followed by Orlando (+675), New York (+800), and Toronto (+1000). There is one dark horse that I’m interested in, and that’s San Antonio (+2000) with a 4.8% implied chance.
The NBA Cup betting prices are basically saying, it’s Oklahoma City and everyone else. But will the Thunder focus on this tournament? Will their title defense take precedence, or can they do both?
You can find the 2025 NBA Cup odds at Lucky Rebel by heading to Sports > Basketball > NBA Futures > In-Season Tournament Cup.
NBA Cup Tournament Rules and Format
The 2025 NBA In-Season Tournament rules are straightforward and easy to follow through the two stages. It’s important to note that wins and losses will count toward the team’s regular-season records, except in the NBA In-Season Tournament Championship.
Group Play Rules
Six groups of five teams will make up the Group Play stage. Each team’s NBA In-Season Tournament matchups will consist of four games against each team in the group, with two games at home and two on the road.
A total of eight teams will advance from the Group Stage to the Knockout Rounds. The team with the best record in each group will automatically advance to the next round. Additionally, a wild card from each conference will receive an invitation to the Knockout Rounds.
Wild card teams consist of two clubs that didn’t win their group, but finished with the best record in the Group Play phase. The NBA has set out rules for tiebreakers among teams with the same records:
- Point differential
- Total points scored
- Regular-season record from the 2024-2025 season
- Random drawing
Point differential is the first means of breaking up a tie. Suppose the point differential is the same between teams. In that case, total points, the 2024-25 regular-season record, and a random drawing will be used in the unlikely scenario that there isn’t a resolution based on the first three criteria.
Knockout Rounds Rules
The Knockout Round games are a single-elimination game format in the Quarterfinals and Semifinals. In each conference, the Quarterfinal games will be hosted by two teams with the best records from the Group Play stage.
NBA Cup Tournament Prize Pool
The tournament prize pool will be distributed to players on teams who participated in the Knockout Rounds. Players on teams that advance the furthest will be allocated more of the prize pool.
Following the NBA In-Season Tournament Championship, the NBA Cup will be awarded to the winning team. Additionally, an MVP and All-Tournament Team will be announced by the NBA.
2025 NBA Cup Schedule
On Friday, October 31, the 2025 NBA Cup tipped off with the Group Play stage. The third NBA Cup will be awarded to a team in the NBA In-Season Tournament Championship on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, in Las Vegas.
The 2025 NBA In-Season Tournament includes two stages and a championship game. All 30 teams are eligible to participate in the opening Group Play. Let’s take a brief look at the NBA midseason tournament schedule:
Group Play
Each team in the NBA In-Season Tournament will play five Group Play games on designated “Cup Nights” on Fridays from October 21 to November 28. There will additional “Cup Nights” on Tuesday November 25, and Wednesday, November 26.
Knockout Rounds
The Quarterfinals are scheduled for December 9-10. On December 13, the Semifinals will be played in Las Vegas.
Championship
On Tuesday, December 16, the final two teams will compete for the NBA Cup in Las Vegas.
Favorites in the NBA Cup 2025
Let’s examine the NBA in-season tournament winner odds for the favorites.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-105)
The Thunder are the favorites in the NBA championship odds to repeat as champions, but they’re even larger favorites in the NBA Cup! OKC is 20-1, and have avenged their only loss of the season, beating Portland twice. They haven’t lost since falling in Portland on November 5.
STRIKING START: Riding a 12-game winning streak, the Oklahoma City Thunder (20-1) have become just the fourth team in NBA history to win at least 20 of their first 21 games (including a 4-0 mark in Group Play of the Emirates NBA Cup 2025). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander now owns the… pic.twitter.com/NuJ1Ax5bKe
— NBA (@NBA) December 1, 2025
It was just announced that Isaiah Hartenstein will be out 10-14 days with a calf strain, but will that matter? The Thunder just got Jalen Williams back, and he looks great for someone making his season debut. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was lethal late in the Portland game on November 30, scoring ten points in the last 4:18.
What’s more, the Thunder scored 38 points in the fourth quarter of that game, and put the clamps on the Trail Blazers defensively. There is no more complete team in the NBA than the Thunder, who are now minus-money favorites in the 2025 NBA Cup odds.
But can they close the deal? OKC plays Phoenix (+4000) at home in the quarterfinals on December 10.
Los Angeles Lakers (+550)
The Lakers play San Antonio (+2000) at home on the same night, and they’re 4-0 since LeBron James has returned to the lineup. While Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves have taken over the team, James is now doing more work off the ball.
Throughout the games since returning, LeBron James seems to be the “do it all” player and the third option of the offense.
He’s allowing Luka and Austin to do all of the shot creation and playmaking duties, while he plays an off ball style.
The missing piece.
Scary for the NBA. pic.twitter.com/9JGmn8MqD5— 🎗NBA•Fan🎗 (@Klutch_23) November 28, 2025
Doncic and Reaves combine to average nearly 64 points per game, and Doncic’s 35.1 points lead the NBA. James has always been able to play off the ball, but his teams needed him to be a ball-handler. With Doncic and Reaves attracting so much attention (and being great passers), James can use his IQ to find the spaces and get the ball.
I do have concerns about their 17th-ranked defensive rating, and Deandre Ayton has been battling knee issues. But with this trio, I would give the Lakers a chance against anyone in a knockout-style tournament. I think there is some great value in their 2025 NBA In-Season Tournament odds!
The NBA Cup Betting Contenders
The Thunder are the overwhelming favorites in the NBA In-Season Tournament odds, with the Lakers on their tail. But which teams are their most likely challengers?
Orlando Magic (+675)
The Magic were one of four teams to finish 4-0 in the NBA Cup group stage, along with the Thunder, Lakers, and Toronto. They’ve also been impressive without Paolo Banchero, who has been out since November 12 with a groin injury.
With 21 points at Detroit, Franz Wagner became the 18th player in NBA history age 24-or-younger to record 6,000+ total points, 1,500+ total rebounds and 1,100+ total assists during his first five seasons.
Congratulations, Franz 👏 pic.twitter.com/Gt68I13a8A
— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) November 30, 2025
The Magic have been outstanding since then, going 7-2. Franz Wagner has been incredible, while Desmond Bane is getting more comfortable offensively with Banchero out. Orlando is also getting random great games from role players, such as Anthony Black’s 31-point performance against Philadelphia on November 25.
Orlando, which has been a stout defensive team in recent years, has also improved on that end since the start of the season, now ranking eighth in defensive rating. But can they reach their ceiling without Banchero? I’m not sure the Magic, who host Miami in a Sunshine State quarterfinal game on December 9, should be above New York in the 2025 NBA Cup odds.
New York Knicks (+800)
The Knicks are powered by the third-best offense in terms of rating. They have seven players in double digits for points, although OG Anunoby has been out since November 14 with a bad hamstring. There is no timetable for his return.
♨️ Knicks have won 11 of their last 14
♨️ 5th best offense in the NBA
♨️ 4th best defense
♨️ 2nd most rebounds
♨️ 4th best points differential pic.twitter.com/4SOdyNLZXI— MSG Networks (@MSGNetworks) December 1, 2025
Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart have picked up their games, and Hart continues to be an all-around menace on both ends of the floor. Deuce McBride is firing coming off the bench. The Knicks are decent defensively, ranking 12th in rating.
The Knicks play the Raptors in the quarterfinals in Toronto on December 9, and they beat the Raptors 116-94 in New York on November 30. I think they should be the Eastern Conference team with the best NBA Cup odds.
A Sleeper in the 2025 NBA Cup Odds
Next, let’s go down the board and see if we can find more betting value in the NBA Cup odds!
San Antonio Spurs (+2000)
Phoenix heads to OKC on December 10, and I’m not giving them much of a chance. So, I’ll lay my darkhorse hopes with San Antonio, and those hopes lie with the calf of Victor Wembanyama.
Will the Spurs be back at full strength again this week?
Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama, and Jordan McLaughlin are reportedly “doing very well” and seeing time on the court, so keep your fingers crossed. pic.twitter.com/etsmA5h1Dh— SpursRΞPORTΞR (@SpursReporter) December 1, 2025
While some say December 2, the Spurs seem to be targeting the quarterfinal game in Los Angeles as the target for “Wemby”, who has been out since November 17 with a calf strain. The Spurs have also missed Stephon Castle, although Dylan Harper is back.
De’Aaron Fox is also starting to heat up in Wembanyama’s absence, which is great news for the Spurs. However, Wembanyama significantly raises San Antonio’s ceiling (literally and figuratively). If he can come back a few days before the Spurs play the Lakers and he’s operating at 100%, I would be worried if I were an LA fan, especially without Ayton. That’s why I’ve got an eye on the Spurs’ NBA Cup odds for 2025.
2025 NBA Cup Winner Prediction and Betting Pick
I made the Los Angeles Lakers my 2025 NBA Cup prediction on November 4, and I’m standing behind that pick! I took them when they were +1300 at the start of the NBA Cup, they were +750 last week, and still present some value at +550.
Their defense is outstanding, but I believe if there is one offense in the league capable of giving the Thunder trouble, it’s the Lakers’ unit. Doncic, Reaves, and James are all great ball-handlers with high IQs, and I think it would be a fascinating matchup. In my opinion, the winner of that game wins it all.
Let’s take the NBA Cup betting return on the Los Angeles Lakers at +550 to win their second NBA Cup in three seasons!
Where to Bet on the 2025 NBA Cup?
You can wager on these betting markets, as well as group winners, at Lucky Rebel. The bookmaker offers all sorts of NBA markets, including games, futures, the draft, and even NBA Summer League odds!
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