2025-26 NFL Coach of the Year Betting: Odds, Favorites, Prediction

Ben Johnson (+550)

The Chicago Bears’ decision to keep Matt Eberflus last year played a major role in derailing Caleb Williams’s rookie year in the Windy City. Eberflus was fired mid-season and replaced by offensive coordinator Thomas Brown. The Bears went 1-4 with Brown as their interim coach.

Chicago will attempt to put last year behind after hiring Ben Johnson. The former Lions’ OC was the hottest coaching candidate the last two offseasons and will have his first crack at being a head coach this year.

Chicago Bears legend Brian Urlacher talks about Caleb Williams & Ben Johnson:

“I think he’s gonna be really good. If you put him in a different situation last year, he coulda been Rookie of the Year.”

“Ben Johnson is the man. I love that hire.” 👀

🎥: @glorydazepod pic.twitter.com/Sn3YljUYPc

— Bearsszn (@bearssznn) June 19, 2025

BetOnline lists Johnson at +550 odds, giving him an implied win probability of 15.38%.

Johnson will have plenty of talent to work with on offense, including the 2024 first overall pick, Caleb Williams. The Bears also rebuilt their offensive line this summer, which should elevate the offense.

There are two hurdles blocking Johnson’s path to Coach of the Year. First and foremost, expectations are high after his success in Detroit. Also, the young offensive guru must learn how to manage the whole team, including the defense.

Given the challenges ahead of Johnson, the odds of +550 are probably not worth a bet.

Mike Vrabel (+650)

The best candidate to upset Johnson for COTY is New England Patriots coach Mike Vrabel. Before becoming a coach, Vrabel played in the NFL for 14 years, including eight years with the Patriots.

This is Vrabel’s second shot at being an NFL head coach. He spent six years as the head coach of the Titans, leading Tennessee to four winning seasons and three playoff appearances.

This time around, Vrabel will not have the benefit of Derrick Henry lining up in the backfield. On the bright side, New England has a potential future star at quarterback in Drake Maye. The Patriots also have talent on defense, including cornerback Christian Gonzalez and defensive end Milton Williams.

Another advantage for Vrabel is that New England has much lower expectations for the upcoming season. The Patriots’ last winning season was 2021, and they are a combined 8-26 over the last two years.

Still, I’d like a better price than +650 to back him for an award that’s so hard to predict.

Liam Coen (+1000)

Ben Johnson is not the only young, offensive-minded, first-time head coach this season. Jacksonville made the surprising move this offseason to hire Liam Coen as their new coach. If Coen can help the Jaguars compete in the AFC South, one of the weakest divisions in football, he could make a run at COTY.

Will Jaguars Become the AFC Version of Rams? https://t.co/G3sSeflW5b

— Jaguars OnSI (@JaguarsOnSI) July 10, 2025

Coen spent last year as the offensive coordinator of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With the new head coach in control of the offense, Baker Mayfield had a career year last season. The QB set career-highs in passing yards (4,500 yards) and passing touchdowns (41 TDs).

The Jaguars need Coen to work similar magic with Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville’s quarterback has struggled to reach his potential as a first overall pick. Lawrence started just 10 games last season, throwing 11 TDs and seven interceptions.

Jacksonville was also aggressive in the draft, moving up from the fifth to the second pick to take Travis Hunter. The two-way star is an early Rookie of the Year favorite and could, in theory, provide a boost to the Jaguars’ offense and defense. Brian Thomas Jr., last year’s breakout rookie wide receiver, should also benefit with Coen at the helm.

Mike Macdonald (+1200)

Rounding out the top four in the latest Coach of the Year betting odds is Seattle Seahawks’ head coach Mike Macdonald. He led the Seahawks to a 10-7 record last year in his first season as head coach.

Despite finishing second in the NFC West, Seattle missed the playoffs. This season, Macdonald must build a new offense after the Seahawks traded away key contributors this summer. Both quarterback Geno Smith and wide receiver DK Metcalf were sent to the AFC for draft picks.

Seattle signed Sam Darnold to replace Geno. Darnold led the Vikings to a 14-3 record last season in his only year with the team. At receiver, the Seahawks will be relying on 2023 first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba and free agent signee Cooper Kupp.

The good news for Macdonald is that the NFC West could be wide open this season. Arizona is not a contender, San Francisco lost key players to offseason moves, and the Rams, who won the division last year at 10-7, are an aging and injury-prone team.

Seattle has the longest odds to win the division, so leading the Seahawks to a division title would do a lot to elevate Macdonald’s COTY resume.