Our AI March Madness 2026 bracket predictions are unlikely to result in that elusive perfect NCAA bracket, but they can definitely improve your scores! The Sports Geek’s data scientists created a simulation based on stats for all NCAA Tournament participants.
You can find the full bracket predictions below, from the First Four to the Final Four!
AI Bracket Predictions for March Madness 2026 for Round 1
Before we show you our bracket predictions for Round 1 of March Madness 2026, we should clarify that our algorithm expects First Four wins for UMBC, Texas, Prairie View, and Miami (OH).
With that in mind, here are full Round 1 AI NCAA bracket predictions:
| Match-Up | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Duke vs. Siena | Duke |
| Ohio State vs. TCU | Ohio State |
| St. John’s vs. Northern Iowa | Northern Iowa |
| Kansas vs. Cal Baptist | Kansas |
| Louisville vs. South Florida | South Florida |
| Michigan State vs. North Dakota State | Michigan State |
| UCLA vs. UCF | UCLA |
| UConn vs. Furman | UConn |
| Florida vs Prairie View | Florida |
| Iowa vs. Clemson | Iowa |
| Vanderbilt vs. McNeese | Vanderbilt |
| Nebraska vs. Troy | Troy |
| North Carolina vs. VCU | North Carolina |
| Illinois vs. Penn | Illinois |
| Saint Mary’s vs. Texas A&M | Saint Mary’s |
| Houston vs. Idaho | Houston |
| Michigan vs. UMBC | Michigan |
| Georgia vs. Saint Loiuis | Georgia |
| Texas Tech vs. Akron | Texas Tech |
| Alabama vs. Hofstra | Alabama |
| Tennessee vs. Miami (OH) | Tennessee |
| Virginia vs. Wright State | Virginia |
| Kentucky vs. Santa Clara | Santa Clara |
| Iowa State vs. Tennessee State | Iowa State |
| Arizona vs. LIU | Arizona |
| Villanova vs. Utah State | Utah State |
| Wisconsin vs. High Point | Wisconsin |
| Arkansas vs. Hawaii | Arkansas |
| BYU vs. Texas | BYU |
| Gonzaga vs. Kennesaw State | Kennesaw State |
| Miami (FL) vs. Missouri | Miami (FL) |
| Purdue vs. Queens | Purdue |
Computer NCAA Bracket Predictions for Round 2
And here’s what our AI bracket predictions for Round 2 look like:
| Match-Up | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Duke vs. Ohio State | Duke |
| Kansas vs. Northern Iowa | Kansas |
| Michigan State vs. South Florida | Michigan State |
| UConn vs. UCLA | UConn |
| Florida vs Iowa | Florida |
| Vanderbilt vs. Troy | Vanderbilt |
| Illinois vs. North Carolina | Illinois |
| Houston vs. Saint Mary’s | Houston |
| Michigan vs. Georgia | Michigan |
| Alabama vs. Texas Tech | Alabama |
| Virginia vs. Tennessee | Virginia |
| Iowa State vs. Santa Clara | Iowa State |
| Arizona vs. Utah State | Arizona |
| Arkansas vs. Wisconsin | Arkansas |
| Purdue vs. Miami (FL) | Purdue |
| BYU vs. Kennesaw State | BYU |
Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament 2026 Bracket Predictions
For the Sweet 16, we have the following bracket predictions:
| Match-Up | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Duke vs. Kansas | Duke |
| UConn vs. Michigan State | Michigan State |
| Florida vs. Vanderbilt | Florida |
| Houston vs. Illinois | Illinois |
| Michigan vs. Alabama | Michigan |
| Iowa State vs. Virginia | Virginia |
| Arizona vs. Arkansas | Arizona |
| Purdue vs. BYU | Purdue |
Elite 8 Bracket Predictions
Here’s what our AI expects to happen in the 2026 March Madness Elite 8:
| Match-Up | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Duke vs. Michigan State | Duke |
| Florida vs. Illinois | Illinois |
| Michigan vs. Virginia | Michigan |
| Arizona vs. Purdue | Arizona |
Final 4 Bracket Predictions
For the Final Four, our AI expects the following match-ups and outcomes:
| Match-Up | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Duke vs. Illinois | Duke |
| Michigan vs. Arizona | Michigan |
Championship Game Bracket Predictions
Finally, here is the team our AI thinks will cut down the nets on Championship Monday.
| Match-Up | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Duke vs. Michigan | Michigan |
Full AI-Generated March Madness Bracket Predictions for 2026
Here’s what the NCAA bracket looks like based on our AI model predictions for 2026 for each region and stage, from the First Four, all the way to the championship game:
Our AI Model Methodology for Bracket Predictions
You might wonder, how did our AI model make these picks? We used a Monte Carlo simulation, which uses repeated sampling at random to figure out potential outcomes. Our Monte Carlo simulation used a combination of Blended Adjustment Efficiency Margin (AdjEM), and Seed-History.
AdjEM was created by Ken Pomeroy, also known as KenPom. It takes into account a team’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies, evaluated by points per 100 possessions, against the average NCAA team. Those calculations are then remodeled to include a team’s strength of schedule.
The AdjEM was integrated with a seed-history model, taking into account a team’s seed number averaged over 40 years. Each round was broken down as:
- Round 1: 55% seed history + 45% AdjEM
- Round 2: 27% seed history + 73% AdjEM
- Sweet Sixteen: 11% seed history + 89% AdjEM
- Elite Eight, Final Four, Championship: 100% AdjEM
We then ran 10,000 simulations, and by the conclusion, these teams had the best chance of winning the NCAA Tournament. The first three teams also top the board at March Madness betting sites:
- Duke Blue Devils: 16.4%
- Michigan Wolverines: 13.2%
- Arizona Wildcats: 11.5%
- Illinois Fighting Illinois: 7.3%
- Florida Gators: 6.9%
It should come as no surprise that four of the teams are #1 seeds. The outlier is Illinois, who is actually a #3 seed in the South region, but they have the fourth-best AdjEM in the country at 31.7. Duke leads the way in that respect at 36.8, while Michigan is next at 35.5, and Arizona comes in at 34.1.
Those three also top the bracket in terms of their chances to reach the Final Four, with Duke at 39.5%, Michigan at 36.2%, and Arizona at 35%. The fourth spot is up for grabs between Florida (26.1%), Illinois (24.6%), Purdue (22.1%), and Iowa State (22.0%).
Keep an eye on the first round as our AI model is predicting seven upsets:
- (12) Northern Iowa over (5) St. John’s – East Region
- (11) South Florida over (6) Louisville – East Region
- (10) Santa Clara over (7) Kentucky – Midwest Region
- (13) Troy over (4) Nebraska – South Region
- (14) Kennesaw State over (3) Gonzaga – West Region
- (9) Iowa over (8) Clemson – South Region
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