March Madness 2026 Parlays: Best NCAA Parlay for Round 1

Leg 1: #16 Siena +28.5 (-120) vs. #1 Duke

The first leg of my opening round parlay for March Madness is for #16 Siena to cover the spread against #1 Duke. Oddsmakers are giving the Saints 28.5 points in the First Round.

Duke is the top overall seed in the tournament, but their path to the Final Four is a tough one. In addition to a region loaded with talent, the Blue Devils’ roster has some question marks that must be addressed.

.@SethOnHoops addresses his concerns for Duke with Caleb Foster being ruled out indefinitely with a fractured right foot. pic.twitter.com/dAPc192uv3

— First Take (@FirstTake) March 13, 2026

Their team heavily relies on freshman Cameron Boozer this season, who averaged 22.5 PPG and 56.5% from the field.

As good as Boozer is, freshmen typically struggle in March. Also, the Blue Devils will be without guard Caleb Foster (8.5 PPG), who fractured his right foot in the regular season finale. Center Patrick Ngongba II (10.7 PPG) is also questionable with a foot injury.

Duke won the ACC Tournament without Foster and Ngongba II. However, two of their three conference tournament wins were decided by five points or less. If Ngongba II is still on the bench with Foster in the First Round, the Blue Devils will struggle to cover the 28.5-point spread.

Leg 2: #11 VCU (+135) vs. #6 North Carolina

Up next is the highly anticipated matchup between #11 Virginia Commonwealth (VCU) and Duke’s rival, #6 UNC. Like the Blue Devils, the Tar Heels received bad injury news at the end of the regular season.

Earlier this month, star Freshman Caleb Wilson broke his right thumb in practice. The injury required surgery that will knock Wilson out for the rest of the season.

North Carolina's Caleb Wilson broke his right thumb while dunking in practice on Thursday, according to the team.

Wilson has already undergone season-ending surgery and is expected to be cleared during the NBA pre-draft process, sources told @ShamsCharania. pic.twitter.com/ONv8FiAXpf

— ACC Network (@accnetwork) March 6, 2026

Wilson led UNC this season with 19.8 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.5 SPG, and 1.4 BPG. In the ACC Tournament, the Tar Heels lost 80-79 to Clemson with Wilson on the bench. He has been out since mid-February thanks to a fractured left hand, and UNC is 3-2 without him over that span.

VCU, on the other hand, started the season 11-6. Since then, they have won 16 of their last 17 to improve to 27-7 heading into March Madness. They have only allowed more than 75 points once during that stretch, their 88-75 loss to Saint Louis.

If the Rams continue to play lockdown defense and keep this game low scoring, they can secure the upset over a UNC team missing its best player.

Leg 3: #9 Iowa vs. #8 Clemson (+110)

March Madness betting sites have #8 Clemson as a +110 underdog heading into its First Round matchup with #9 Iowa. Both teams had top-30 defenses and allowed fewer than 67 PPG to opponents.

Iowa went 21-12 this season, thanks in large part to Senior guard Bennett Stirtz’s 20.0 PPG. Stirtz also led the Hawkeyes in assists (4.5 APG) and steals (1.5 SPG) this season. Fellow guard Tavion Banks (10.5 PPG) was the only other player to average double-digits for Iowa this season.

𝘼𝙡𝙡-𝘼𝙢𝙚𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙖 𝙉𝙤𝙙 🇺🇸

Bennett Stirtz has been named an AP All-American (honorable mention). 👊 pic.twitter.com/e6T1GLmZMZ

— Iowa Men’s Basketball (@IowaHoops) March 17, 2026

Clemson (24-10) also had two players in average double-digits this year, with forwards RJ Godfrey (11.9 PPG) and Carter Welling (10.2 PPG) leading the way. The upperclassmen duo also each had over five rebounds per game this year.

The Tigers finished 34th in NET rating and went 6-6 against Quad 1 opponents. All 10 of their losses came against Quad 1 or 2 teams.

Iowa, on the other hand, had a higher rating, finishing 27th, but earned a 5-9 record against Quad 1 teams this season. Two of the Hawkeyes’ losses were to Quad 3 teams, and Iowa was also 3-8 on the road this season.

Neither team is perfect, but Iowa has struggled more against top teams this season than Clemson has. With that in mind, I like the Tigers to pull off the upset in the First Round.