NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, October 21: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +500 (Rockets vs. Thunder)

In a marquee matchup between two rising Western Conference powerhouses, the Thunder look primed to make an early statement. At +500, backing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score the game’s first basket is a sharp value play.

The edge begins at center court. With Isaiah Hartenstein handling the tip-off duties for OKC, he brings a slight height advantage over Alperen Sengun and a track record of success in last season’s jump balls. If the Thunder secure the opening possession, Gilgeous-Alexander is the clear threat to capitalize.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the 2025 NBA Finals MVP! pic.twitter.com/odn5kESjkA

— NBA (@NBA) June 23, 2025

SGA enters the season riding high off an MVP campaign, averaging 32.7 points on 51.9% shooting. He sets the tone early and often, thriving in isolation and attacking right out of the gate.

OKC trusts him with the offense from the jump, and in a game with playoff-like intensity, expect their star to take the lead and the first shot.

Luka Doncic +420 (Warriors vs. Lakers)

With LeBron James sidelined, the Lakers turn to their new-look duo, and there’s sneaky value in backing Luka Doncic at +420 to open the scoring.

The edge begins with the tip. Deandre Ayton, now manning the middle for LA, ranked among the league’s top jump ball specialists last season. Standing 7 feet tall and dominant in the circle, Ayton gives the Lakers a strong chance to secure early possession.

This Luka Doncic move had our jaws on the floor. 😱 pic.twitter.com/bPeKMeZJU0

— NBA on NBC and Peacock (@NBAonNBC) October 20, 2025

That sets the stage for Doncic to go to work. With LeBron out, he’s the clear No. 1 scoring option and the primary initiator on the floor. Known for setting the tone early, Doncic thrives when the offense runs through him right from the opening whistle.

Given the likely first possession and Doncic’s takeover role, this is a solid value spot to back the star guard to strike first.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.