NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, October 30: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Paolo Banchero +650 (Magic vs. Hornets)

The Magic took care of business early against Detroit, winning the opening tip and getting straight into their set-up last night.

Wendell Carter Jr. secured the jump and Jalen Suggs ran the offense right away, just like we drew it up. That led to an easy cash on Paolo Banchero at +650 to score first, and we’re running it back at the same price tonight.

Banchero continues to command the offense, averaging 22.8 points and 17.8 shot attempts per game. He dropped 24 last night and remains the first scoring option for Orlando. With his usage and shot volume, Banchero’s first basket odds should be closer to the favorites on the board, not hanging in mid-tier range at +650.

Paolo Banchero coast-to-coast layup after the crossover pic.twitter.com/B0tVu8m9pq

— The Magic Way (@MagicFilmRoom) October 30, 2025

If the Magic grab the tip again, and recent form says they will, look for Banchero to set the tone early once more. There’s value in sticking with the hot hand.

Victor Wembanyama +400 (Heat vs. Spurs)

Victor Wembanyama has wasted no time establishing himself as the alpha in San Antonio. Averaging 31 points on 60.3% shooting, the third-year center has been relentless, attacking from the opening tip and playing with the urgency of a seasoned vet.

VICTOR WEMBANYAMA 360 LAYUP

MY GOODNESS. 🔥🔥🔥🔥

pic.twitter.com/BkrnviQso4

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) October 28, 2025

With three of his four games featuring 21 or more shot attempts, the Spurs are making it clear, this is his show. Against the Heat, the setup is there for another fast start. Wembanyama has the edge at center and should control the opening tip, giving San Antonio first crack at the scoreboard.

Given how active he’s been early in games, it’s tough to look past him as the likely first scorer. At +400, the number offers enough cushion to pounce on the momentum.

The “Alien” is the focal point and the first option. If the Spurs touch the ball first, expect Wemby to get them on the board.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.