NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, October 31: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Jrue Holiday +850 (Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers)

The Trail Blazers have quietly been one of the NBA’s best teams at securing the opening tip, winning 80% of their jump balls to start games this season. That early possession edge matters in the first basket market, especially against a Nuggets squad that has split their opening tips right down the middle at 50%.

With Portland more likely to get the first crack, Jrue Holiday stands out as a sharp value play at +850. Long known for his defensive prowess, Holiday has stepped into a more aggressive offensive role with the Blazers.

Jrue Holiday’s last three games:

21 PTS — 7 AST — 6 REB — 7/14 FGM
24 PTS — 6 AST — 5 REB — 10/15 FGM
27 PTS — 8 AST — 5 REB — 10/16 FGM

Jrue is thriving in Portland. https://t.co/6gNPbjm1gk pic.twitter.com/SGsSPahpP8

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) October 30, 2025

He’s averaging 19.6 points on 51.4% shooting while putting up over 14 field goal attempts per game. That volume and efficiency make him a prime candidate to get an early look.

Given the jump ball trends and Holiday’s increased usage, +850 odds is simply too rich to pass up in this spot.

Lauri Markkanen +600 (Jazz vs. Suns)

Lauri Markkanen is making an early case as one of the most lethal scorers in the league, and Friday night’s matchup against the Suns sets him up nicely for a first basket hit at +600.

Utah has dominated the tip-off circle to start the season, winning every single jump ball through four games. That 100% success rate puts the Jazz in prime position to strike first again.

Phoenix has been solid but not perfect in this area, capturing 60% of opening tips. That small edge can swing a bet like this, especially when it favors a volume shooter like Markkanen. The Finnish forward is putting up monster numbers early, averaging 34 points on 50.6% shooting with nearly 22 field goal attempts per game.

LAURI MARKKANEN 51 POINTS IN WIN OVER THE SUNS 😱🔥

First 50-point game for the Jazz since 1998 🤯 pic.twitter.com/s6Wf579rjr

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 28, 2025

With the opening possession likely going Utah’s way and Markkanen in attack mode from the jump, there’s strong value backing him to score first at this number.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.