Auto NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 4: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Wendell Carter Jr. +1100 (Magic vs. Hawks)

Wendell Carter Jr. may not be the focal point of Orlando’s offense, but tonight’s first basket market gives him a chance to make an early statement. The Magic have been automatic on the opening tip, winning all seven jump balls this season. That stat alone makes them a prime candidate to draw first blood against the Hawks.

Carter Jr. brings serious value at +1100, especially considering his role in those early possessions. He’s logged a 28.6% share of the team’s first shot attempts, a surprisingly high number for a player outside the top scoring tier. And he’s converting efficiently too, averaging 11.3 points per game on over 50% shooting from the field.

Don’t think we’ve seen Wendell Carter Jr. moving and hooping this confidently in a few years

The importance of a healthy end to last season and a good off-season can’t be understated, and it’s the first one he’s had in awhile pic.twitter.com/Y4YZGgv3u5

— Point Made Basketball (@pointmadebball) October 12, 2025

Fresh off back-to-back 18 and 16-point outings, Carter Jr. is trending in the right direction. With Orlando likely getting the first crack at the basket, this is a strong spot to take a flier on the big man to cash first.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +450 (Thunder vs. Clippers)

The LA Clippers haven’t just struggled at tip-off, they’ve been downright absent, going 0-for-6 on opening jump balls this season. That glaring weakness puts the ball squarely in OKC’s hands to start Tuesday night’s matchup, and with it comes a prime scoring opportunity for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

SGA is the clear offensive engine for the Thunder, averaging 33.6 points per game while shooting a sharp 52.6% from the field. He’s also putting up 22.3 shots a night and constantly pressures defenses with his ability to draw contact and get to the line early. That combination of high usage and efficiency makes him a natural pick for first-basket props.

SGA is your @NBA Western Conference Player of the Week ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/18LpWXgCIS

— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) November 3, 2025

With the Clippers essentially gifting the opening possession, and Gilgeous-Alexander dominating both the volume and scoring charts for OKC, he offers strong value at +450 to put the first points on the board.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.