NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 5: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Lauri Markkanen +500 (Jazz vs. Pistons)

Tonight’s matchup features the Utah Jazz versus the Detroit Pistons, and the best play is Lauri Markkanen to score the first basket (+500).

The Jazz have asserted dominance early this season by winning every jump ball they’ve contested with seven out of seven. That strong start often leads directly to the first possession and sets the tone for the opening sequence.

On the flip side, the Pistons are one of the league’s weakest jump‑ball squads, converting just 28.6 % of the time. That combination means Utah is very likely to get the opening hands‑up and the chance to attack immediately.

Lauri Markkanen kept his streak of 20-point games alive

He's scored 20 or more in every game this season, and is doing more as a scorer than he did last year

Very impressed with the early returns of this season by Lauri pic.twitter.com/tsRn3YPcBm

— Jazz Lead (@JazzLead) November 4, 2025

Enter Markkanen. He has launched the first shot in 42.9 % of Utah’s games, a number worth owning in a first‑basket context. He’s also rolling with a scorching 31.1 points per game average on 48 % shooting.

With the Jazz poised to win the toss and claim the initial possession, Markkanen becomes the logical target to cash that opening bucket.

Deni Avdija +600 (Thunder vs. Trail Blazers)

The Trail Blazers have been quietly getting it done at center court, winning 71.4 % of their tip-offs this season. That early edge is crucial against an OKC team converting just 57.1 % of their own jump balls. With Portland likely to get the opening possession, Deni Avdija steps into prime position to strike first.

Deni Avdija tonight:

33 Points
6 Rebounds
2 Assists
10/20 FGM pic.twitter.com/3dhuo9Cymq

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) November 4, 2025

He’s been a focal point offensively, averaging 24.1 points per game on a sharp 49.1 % shooting clip. The usage is there, and so is the efficiency. Add in his physical presence as a go-to option and you have a compelling first basket candidate.

Portland’s early possession trend plus Avdija’s volume makes this +600 number feel a touch too high. There’s sneaky value on the board with him to open the scoring for your NBA first basket bets.

Victor Wembanyama +500 (Spurs vs. Lakers)

Victor Wembanyama looks primed to set the tone early tonight against the Lakers. The Spurs have dominated the jump circle this season, winning 83.3% of their tip-offs. With Wemby at center, San Antonio has the clear edge over a Lakers team converting 62.5% of theirs.

That first possession is key, and Wembanyama is the obvious target to cash it in. He’s coming off a rare off night with just nine points against the Suns, which only adds fuel to the bounce-back narrative.

Wemby has averaged 26.7 points on 52.7% shooting while putting up 18.3 field goal attempts per game. The volume and efficiency are exactly what you want when hunting for a first basket scorer.

These Wemby handles 👽

He keeps showing why he’s truly one of a kind! pic.twitter.com/OEurQT1QoX

— NBA (@NBA) October 28, 2025

At +500, there’s real value here. If the Spurs secure the tip, and all signs point to yes, look for Wembanyama to strike quickly and open the scoring.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.