NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 6: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Devin Booker +500 (Clippers vs. Suns)

When it comes to first basket bets, possession is everything, and the Clippers just can’t win a tip. Through seven games, they’re 0-for-7 on opening jump balls, making them the worst in the league in that department. Even the average 50% rate from the Suns looks elite by comparison and gives Phoenix a clear edge to start with the ball.

That puts Devin Booker in the spotlight. He’s averaging 31 points on an efficient 51.6% from the floor and leads the Suns with nearly 20 shot attempts per game. He’s also drilling 43.1% of his looks from deep, giving him multiple ways to strike early. With the ball likely in Phoenix’s hands first, Booker’s volume and efficiency make him the top option to cash the first scorer prop.

Players in NBA history thru their first 8 games of a season with:

30+ PPG
5+ APG
50+ FG%
40+ 3FG%

▪️ Devin Booker (this season)
▪️ Stephen Curry (twice)
▪️ Larry Bird (1984-85)
▪️ Michael Jordan (1992-93) pic.twitter.com/tJXdBs43vC

— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) November 5, 2025

At +500, the value lines up well with both the matchup and the numbers. Booker’s high-usage role and sharp start to the season make him the go-to target here.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.