NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 12: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Paolo Banchero +650 (Magic vs. Knicks)

At +650, Paolo Banchero brings serious value in the first basket market against the Knicks. The edge starts at tip-off, where Orlando holds a clear advantage.

The Magic have been the NBA’s top team in jump balls, winning a dominant 90.9% of them this season. Compare that to the Knicks’ 50% success rate and the likelihood of Orlando grabbing the first possession is high.

That puts Banchero in prime position. He leads the team with 23.3 points per game and takes a healthy 15.8 shots per night, making him the go-to scoring option early and often. With the first touch of the ball likely in Orlando’s hands, there’s a strong chance the offense runs through Banchero right out of the gate.

PAOLO BANCHERO!!! pic.twitter.com/zSl5Mpugbm

— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) November 11, 2025

Factoring in his usage, scoring role, and the jump ball advantage, Banchero at +650 is a sharp play to open the scoring tonight.

Victor Wembanyama +470 (Warriors vs. Spurs)

Victor Wembanyama is offering strong value at +470 to score the first basket against Golden State, and all signs point to him having the edge. The Spurs have been elite on jump balls, winning 90% of them for the second-best in the NBA, with Wembanyama’s length and timing anchoring that success.

That early possession boost immediately puts Wembanyama in scoring position. He’s averaging 25.7 points per game and leads the team with 17.8 field goal attempts, giving him the volume and the green light to fire early.

Whether it’s a designed play, a quick post-up, or a putback off a miss, his versatility and presence in the paint make him a top threat to strike first.​

Wemby DOMINATES in @spurs' dub in Chi-Town!

👽 38 PTS (23 in 2H)
👽 12 REB
👽 5 AST
👽 5 BLK
👽 6 3PM

He is the 1st player to record 35+ PTS, 10+ REB, 5+ AST, 5+ BLK and 5+ 3PM in a game 🤯 pic.twitter.com/EIMRyL9aJK

— NBA (@NBA) November 11, 2025

​In a market where possession and shot volume matter most, Wembanyama’s combination of jump ball dominance and scoring usage makes him a sharp first basket target at +470.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.