NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 14: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Franz Wagner +430 (Nets vs. Magic)

Franz Wagner is a strong first basket target at +430 as the Magic host the Brooklyn Nets in a spot that plays directly into Orlando’s strengths. No team has been more consistent at grabbing the opening possession than the Magic, who have won an incredible 91.7% of tip-offs this season.

Franz Wagner highlights vs. NYK:

28 PTS
9 REB
4 AST
+21 +/-@Kia pic.twitter.com/ExhKNQCnIG

— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) November 13, 2025

That early edge has helped Orlando become the most profitable first scorer team in the league, and Wagner has been a key beneficiary. He’s already cashed three first basket tickets this year and enters Friday’s game averaging 22.5 points on 47.4% shooting. His versatility as both a slasher and a threat from beyond the arc makes him tough to defend out of the gate.

With Orlando’s track record of setting the tone early and Wagner’s prominent role in the offense, there’s clear value in backing him to open the scoring again in this one.

Devin Vassell +750 (Warriors vs. Spurs)

Devin Vassell offers tremendous value at +750 to score the first basket when the Spurs take on the Warriors. San Antonio ranks second in the NBA in jump ball win rate, taking the opening tip 90.9% of the time thanks to Victor Wembanyama’s dominance at center.

That early possession has translated into real opportunity for Vassell, who’s already tallied three first baskets this season. Despite averaging 13.9 points per game on modest 40.4% shooting, he’s getting consistent early looks with 12.4 field goal attempts per game. That usage, especially in opening sets, makes him an ideal first scorer bet.

THREE AND ONE 🤩

📺 FanDuelSN SW pic.twitter.com/gPxCpDYvX7

— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) November 13, 2025

Golden State’s defensive lapses in the early stages of games add to the appeal here. With San Antonio likely getting the ball first and Vassell being a go-to option out of the gate, the +750 price tag jumps out as a sharp way to attack the first scorer market.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.