NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 17: Best First Point Scorer Bets

De’Andre Hunter +600 (Bucks vs. Cavaliers)

With the Cavaliers likely to control the first possession tonight against the Bucks, De’Andre Hunter at +600 is a sharp look for your first basket bets. Jarrett Allen has anchored Cleveland as one of the NBA’s most reliable tip-off units, winning around 60% of jump balls.

That’s a big edge over Milwaukee, who’s come away with the opening tip in just 28.6% of games this season. That early possession matters when a player like Hunter is involved.

He’s tied for the team lead with three first baskets and has consistently come out aggressive, averaging 18 points on 44.2% shooting. With 14 field goal attempts per game, he’s not shy about getting involved early in sets.

THIS DE'ANDRE HUNTER CROSSOVER-SLAM COMBO 🤯🤯🤯

Watch on NBA League Pass: https://t.co/xob27Scjia pic.twitter.com/aQVaLqd62h

— NBA (@NBA) November 9, 2025

Given the possession advantage and Hunter’s scoring volume, this +600 number offers real value in a tightly lined market. All signs point to Cleveland starting fast, and Hunter is the Cavalier most likely to cash that in first.

Chet Holmgren +400 (Thunder vs. Pelicans)

Chet Holmgren at +400 is firmly in play for first scorer picks when the Thunder face the Pelicans. Oklahoma City has been dominant on opening tips, winning 64.3% of jump balls, and they’re up against a New Orleans squad that ranks near the bottom at just 23.1%. That sets up Holmgren for a strong early look.

Holmgren’s efficiency and usage make him a prime target in this market. He’s averaging 19.3 points on an elite 57.6% shooting clip and isn’t just coasting on that efficiency, as he’s been assertive with volume, putting up 20 shots in the Thunder’s most recent outing against Charlotte.

Chet Holmgren was hoopin' tonight 🔥 pic.twitter.com/3wE0P7gLtO

— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) November 12, 2025

Despite missing time earlier this season, he’s still tied for the team lead in first baskets, underscoring his role as an early option. With the tip-off edge and Holmgren’s assertiveness, this +400 price holds solid value in what’s shaping up to be a favorable setup for OKC’s versatile big.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.