NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 19: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Donovan Mitchell +550 (Rockets vs. Cavaliers)

For first basket value in the Rockets vs. Cavaliers matchup, Donovan Mitchell at +550 jumps off the board. He’s been in full takeover mode lately, dropping 30 or more in three straight games while averaging 20-plus shots across that stretch.

The volume is there, but so is the mindset, as Mitchell is attacking early and often, including 21 and 22 attempts in his last two outings alone. Since November 2, he’s launched 20 or more field goal attempts in seven of eight games, a strong signal that he’s not easing into matchups. That aggressive tone fits perfectly for a first scorer bet.

Donovan Mitchell records his 3rd straight game with 30+ points in Cleveland's 10th win of the season!

🕷️ 37 points
🕷️ 7 assists
🕷️ 5 rebounds
🕷️ 4 triples pic.twitter.com/QwGstpPOdq

— NBA (@NBA) November 18, 2025

Cleveland also has an edge off the tip. Jarrett Allen is one of the most reliable jump ball centers in the league, helping the Cavs win the opening tip 60 percent of the time, compared to just 33.3 percent for Houston. With Mitchell likely to touch the ball first, the path is clear for a quick bucket.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +480 (Kings vs. Thunder)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at +480 is one of the sharper first basket plays on the board for Kings vs. Thunder. Oklahoma City has a massive edge at center court, winning 66.7% of opening tips this season compared to just 21.4% for Sacramento. That puts the Thunder in prime position to control the first possession.

From there, it’s all about SGA’s usage. He’s the top scoring option for OKC, averaging 31.9 points on 53.1% shooting with 20.2 field goal attempts per game. He’s aggressive, efficient, and always hunting early looks.

Most points this season:

456 — SGA
404 — SGA without 4th quarters
384 — Tyrese Maxey pic.twitter.com/UNePcXxHpk

— StatMuse (@statmuse) November 16, 2025

With the odds stacked in OKC’s favor to touch the ball first and Gilgeous-Alexander leading the charge offensively, the path to an opening bucket is wide open. At nearly 5-to-1 value, this is a well-calculated NBA first scorer bet.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.