NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 21: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Keyonte George +700 (Thunder vs. Jazz)

In the matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Utah Jazz, the Jazz hold a clear advantage at the tip‑off, with Utah dominating jump balls at a 92.9 % clip this season, while Oklahoma City sits at a respectable 68.8 %. That opening possession edge gives the Jazz additional opportunity to strike first.

That sets the stage for why backing Keyonte George to score the first basket at +700 looks like smart value. George has stepped into a more aggressive role in Utah’s offense, attempting 50 field goals across his last two games and putting up 67 points.

Former Bear Keyonte George just became the youngest player in Jazz history with back-to-back 30-point games‼️

🏀11/16 (Chi): 33 PTS, 6 AST
🏀11/18 (LAL): 34 PTS, 8 AST

Through 13 games, George is averaging 23 points and seven assists per game this season with Utah.#SicEm🐻 pic.twitter.com/pcidQ0wlDF

— Baylor Bears on SicEm365 (@SicEm365) November 20, 2025

Overall he is averaging 23 points per contest while shooting 42.7 %. With the Jazz likely to secure the early possession edge and George carving out more touches, this bet presents an appealing risk‑to‑reward scenario.

In short, the Jazz likely open with the first possession, George is getting enough volume and confidence, the +700 odds provide value, making him a strong candidate to cash for first scorer.

Deni Avdija +600 (Trail Blazers vs. Warriors)

In Friday’s matchup between the Trail Blazers and the Warriors, Portland has a clear edge in one area that matters most for this prop on the jump ball. The Blazers are winning 60% of opening tips, while Golden State sits near the bottom of the league at just 35.3%.

That early possession boost gives Portland a better-than-average shot at striking first. If the Blazers do secure the ball, Deni Avdija is the player to watch.

Blazers with multiple 30-point triple-doubles:

— Clyde
— Dame

and Deni Avdija. pic.twitter.com/n4zOus1YCg

— StatMuse (@statmuse) November 20, 2025

The 24-year-old forward has stepped up as a go-to option offensively, averaging 25.9 points on 48.9% shooting. He’s also leading the team with 17.3 shot attempts per game, giving him a real shot at taking the first look.

At +600, Avdija offers strong value as a first basket bet. The numbers point to Portland getting the ball first, and Avdija’s role and volume make him a prime candidate to cash early.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.