NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 24: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Donovan Mitchell +650 (Cavaliers vs. Raptors)

Donovan Mitchell at +650 stands out as one of the sharper value plays on tonight’s NBA first basket board. Cleveland holds a notable edge at the opening tip, winning 61.1% of jump balls behind Jarrett Allen, while the Raptors sit at just 47.1% in that department. That early possession boost puts Mitchell in a prime spot to get the first look.

He’s the clear offensive engine for Cleveland, leading the team in volume and efficiency with 20.3 field goal attempts per game and a strong 50.7% shooting clip. Averaging over 30 points a night, Mitchell is often aggressive from the outset. With the expected first touch and his shoot-first role, he profiles as a top-tier first scorer option.

For the 5th time in 6 games, Donovan Mitchell's got 30 🔥

Tonight, he only needed three quarters to do it! pic.twitter.com/uuUHpOUmRD

— NBA (@NBA) November 24, 2025

At +650, Mitchell offers value in a matchup tilted toward Cleveland getting the ball first. This is the kind of spot where his usage and the numbers align perfectly for your best NBA first scorer picks.

Jerami Grant +700 (Trail Blazers vs. Bucks)

Jerami Grant offers serious first-basket value at +700 in tonight’s Trail Blazers vs. Bucks matchup. Portland has a solid 58.8% win rate on opening tips, and Milwaukee has been flat-out poor in that department, claiming just 29.4%. That tilt gives the Blazers a clear edge for first possession, setting up Grant for an early bucket.

Jerami Grant tonight:

▫️21 PTS
▫️6-8 FG
▫️3-4 3PT
▫️6/6 FT pic.twitter.com/Zl0kdmGtsC

— Portland Trail Blazers (@trailblazers) November 24, 2025

He’s been in rhythm lately, scoring 21 against the Thunder and dropping 33 on the Bulls. On the season, Grant is averaging 18.6 points per game while shooting a steady 46.5%. Grant’s role as a primary scoring option, combined with Portland’s tip-off advantage, makes this an ideal spot to ride his hot hand.

At +700, the price is more than fair for a player in strong form with a path to the first shot.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.