NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 28: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Lauri Markkanen +400 (Kings vs. Jazz)

Utah’s dominance in the jump circle gives Lauri Markkanen a clear path to the first basket tonight in Sacramento. The Jazz have secured the opening tip in 82.4% of games this season, a massive edge over a Kings squad that wins the jump just 26.3% of the time.

That early possession is a major factor when you’re targeting a first scorer prop.

It's been 4 years of Lauri Markkanen in Utah, and it's still difficult to believe he's a 7-footer capable of running the floor like this

One of the best transition players in the entire NBA https://t.co/KtIFGONQhW pic.twitter.com/Y6IXdZrMv2

— Jazz Lead (@JazzLead) November 22, 2025

Markkanen is the go-to guy when Utah gets the ball. He leads the team with five first baskets and has cashed this prop in nearly 30% of his starts. With 28.5 points per game on 47.3% shooting, and a team-high 20.4 shot attempts per night, there’s no question who the Jazz look to first.

Given the possession advantage and Markkanen’s high-usage profile, +400 offers solid value for him to strike first in Salt Lake.

Wendell Carter Jr. +950 (Magic vs. Pistons)

Wendell Carter Jr. is an under-the-radar first basket value play Friday night against Detroit, and the numbers back it up. Orlando controls the tip in nearly 79% of games this season, giving them a strong edge for the game’s first possession. That’s a clear advantage over a Pistons squad winning just 44.4% of jump balls.

Carter has quietly been a go-to early option for the Magic, cashing four first baskets this year and hitting in nearly 28% of his starts. He’s efficient when called upon too, averaging 12.3 points on a sharp 54% shooting clip.

WENDELL. CARTER. JR. 😳

He pumpfakes and throws it down!

Watch on NBA League Pass: https://t.co/4FCdHRIiGw pic.twitter.com/yLoB6HSJ3U

— NBA (@NBA) November 11, 2025

At +950, you’re getting longshot pricing on a player with proven usage right out of the gate and a strong likelihood of touching the ball first. Against a struggling Pistons frontcourt, Carter’s first basket potential is well worth the play.

Evan Mobley +700 (Cavaliers vs. Hawks)

Evan Mobley brings strong value at +700 to open the scoring Friday night in Cleveland. The Cavaliers are winning the jump at a 68.4% clip this season, putting them in prime position to strike first against an Atlanta team sitting at 52.6% in tip-offs.

That early edge often translates into immediate scoring opportunities, and Mobley has shown he can capitalize. The big man is averaging 18.7 points on 49.6% shooting, operating as a consistent and efficient scoring threat for the Cavs.

He’s already delivered three first baskets this season, proving he gets early touches and finishes well around the rim. With Cleveland expected to control the tempo from the start, Mobley’s odds offer excellent value in a spot where opportunity and efficiency align

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.