NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, December 1: Best First Point Scorer Bets

De’Andre Hunter +800 (Cavaliers vs. Pacers)

Cleveland is set to win the tip and secure the first possession tonight against Indiana, and that alone gives value to hitting first-basket on the Cavs. De’Andre Hunter looks like the best bet for that extra value at +800.

Hunter leads Cleveland in first baskets with five already this season and comes into the game with a strong 17.4 points per game on solid 45.5 percent shooting, numbers you rarely find at this kind of price.

Hunter has been especially reliable when he starts games. In those starts he’s accounted for 18.8 percent of first points, which is significant. With the Cavs’ 66.7 percent success rate on tip‑offs and Indiana struggling in that department, the odds have some wiggle room.

THIS DE'ANDRE HUNTER CROSSOVER-SLAM COMBO 🤯🤯🤯

Watch on NBA League Pass: https://t.co/xob27Scjia pic.twitter.com/aQVaLqd62h

— NBA (@NBA) November 9, 2025

At +800 Hunter offers one of the most appealing first scorer bets on the slate. The matchup lines up, the numbers back it, and tonight feels like a spot where he could bust out first.

Franz Wagner +400 (Bulls vs. Magic)

Franz Wagner is lined up for a strong first basket opportunity tonight as the Magic head to Chicago. Orlando has dominated the tip this season, winning 80 percent of jump balls, and that edge should put them in control early. With the Bulls grabbing just 26.3 percent of opening tips, the Magic are a safe bet to get the first look.

That brings Wagner into play at +400. He’s the most aggressive scorer in Orlando’s starting five, averaging 22.8 points on 47.4 percent shooting. He doesn’t waste time getting involved and typically looks for his shot early in possessions. Given Orlando’s high success rate off the tip, Wagner is in position to be the first to strike.

With 21 points at Detroit, Franz Wagner became the 18th player in NBA history age 24-or-younger to record 6,000+ total points, 1,500+ total rebounds and 1,100+ total assists during his first five seasons.

Congratulations, Franz 👏 pic.twitter.com/Gt68I13a8A

— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) November 30, 2025

At this number, Wagner offers clean value in a game where the Magic should open on the front foot. If you’re looking for a confident first basket play, he deserves a long look.

Lauri Markkanen +480 (Rockets vs. Jazz)

Lauri Markkanen is one of the strongest first basket plays on the board tonight at +480. Utah has quietly become one of the better jump ball teams in the league, winning nearly 74% of opening tip-offs.

That’s a sharp contrast to Houston’s struggles in that category, sitting at just 29.4 percent. The Jazz are in prime position to secure the first possession, and Markkanen is the clear go-to option once they do.

Lauri Markkanen is shooting 29.1% from 3 over Utah's last 6 games but is still averaging 27.0 PPG during that stretch

Last night he shot 2/13 from deep but still ended up with 28 PTS

Good sign he can score a lot of points when the 3-pointer isn't falling pic.twitter.com/xGK7hxwiVB

— Jazz Lead (@JazzLead) November 30, 2025

He’s been on a tear this season, putting up 27.9 points per game on 46.6 percent shooting. With 20.6 field goal attempts per contest, he’s getting volume from all over the floor.

Markkanen is the kind of player who wastes no time setting the tone offensively, making him a strong candidate to cash this prop early. Given the jump ball edge and his current form, there’s a lot to like about Markkanen at +480 to strike first.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.