NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, December 2: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Chet Holmgren +550 (Thunder vs. Warriors)

Chet Holmgren is an enticing first basket play tonight at +550, with both matchup trends and individual stats lining up in his favor. The Thunder have been one of the best teams at controlling the opening tip, winning 71.4% of jump balls this season. Compare that to Golden State’s weak 38.1% tip win rate, and OKC is well-positioned to get the ball first.

Chet Holmgren tonight ‼️

19 PTS
9 REB
1 STL
3 BLK

OKC advances to 20-1 ⛈️⚡️ pic.twitter.com/RZqGhJoinN

— Playoff OKC (@playoffokc_) December 1, 2025

Once possession is secured, Holmgren has been the go-to early. He’s scored the game’s first points in nearly a quarter of his starts, leading the Thunder in that category. With 18.2 points per game on an ultra-efficient 55.5% shooting, Holmgren is capable of capitalizing immediately if given the chance.

Against a Warriors defense that’s struggled to contain skilled bigs, Holmgren’s blend of size and touch makes him a real threat to open the scoring. At +550, the value is hard to ignore.

Zach Edey +750 (Grizzlies vs. Spurs)

At +750, Zach Edey is a high-upside first basket bet in a spot that sets up perfectly for the Grizzlies’ towering center. Memphis has already been solid on tip-offs this season, winning 61.9% of jump balls, and that number only figures to climb with the 7’4” Edey back in the starting lineup.

With Victor Wembanyama sidelined, the Spurs are vulnerable early. Their tip success has plummeted without their star big man, giving Edey a clear edge to control the opening possession. From there, he’s become a much more assertive scorer, averaging 13.6 points on 67.2% shooting since returning from injury.

A DOMINANT SHOWING FROM ZACH EDEY!

😤 32 PTS (career-high)
😤 17 REB
😤 4 BLK

Grizzlies win their 3rd in a row. pic.twitter.com/zIDq9md9yp

— NBA (@NBA) December 1, 2025

Edey’s physicality and touch around the rim should be overwhelming against a Wemby-less Spurs frontcourt. If Memphis wins the tip as expected, Edey getting the first look in the paint is a likely scenario. At this price, the value is too strong to pass up.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.