NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, December 3: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Wendell Carter Jr. +900 (Spurs vs. Magic)

Wendell Carter Jr. is flying under the radar in the first basket market, but there’s clear value in backing the Magic big man at +900 against San Antonio. Orlando enters with a massive edge on the opening tip, having won 81% of jump balls this season, which is one of the top rates in the league.

That’s a critical edge in a prop that hinges on early possession, and the Spurs are unlikely to challenge without Victor Wembanyama anchoring the circle. Carter has been the go-to early option when he starts, accounting for 30% of Orlando’s first shot attempts and converting 25% of their opening buckets.

Wendell Carter Jr putback dunk pic.twitter.com/aDvDnVfggK

— The Magic Way (@MagicFilmRoom) December 2, 2025

He doesn’t just get early touches, he makes them count, averaging 12.3 points per game on an efficient 53.9% from the floor. In a matchup tilted in Orlando’s favor from the tip, Carter profiles as a strong first scorer candidate with a payout too good to ignore.

Donovan Mitchell +500 (Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers)

Donovan Mitchell at +500 is a strong value play in the first basket market as the Cavaliers take on the Trail Blazers. Cleveland enters with a notable edge on the opening tip, winning 68.2 % of jump balls this season compared to just 52.4 % for Portland. That early possession sets the stage for Mitchell to get the first crack at scoring points.

Donovan Mitchell 43 PTS, 9 REBS, 6 ASTS, 4 3PM, 69% TS on 16/27 FG vs Pacers https://t.co/mqNfm6WtPo pic.twitter.com/US8PKn1jrR

— NBA Performances (@NBARewinds) December 2, 2025

He’s been on an absolute tear, dropping 43 points on the Pacers and 42 more against the Hawks in his last two games. Mitchell is averaging 30.6 points on 50.8 % shooting, taking nearly 21 shots per game. He’s the focal point of Cleveland’s offense and consistently looks for his shot early.

With the Cavs likely to control the opening possession, Mitchell offers real value at +500 to put the first points on the board.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.