NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, December 10: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Luka Doncic +500 (Spurs vs. Lakers)

The Lakers and Spurs tip off in a spot where the first possession could prove pivotal. Both teams have won around 70% of jump balls this season, but with Victor Wembanyama sidelined again, the edge shifts to L.A. at center court.

That added possession boost makes Luka Doncic a sharp first scorer target at +500. Fresh off a 31-point performance against the Sixers, Doncic is back in rhythm and commanding touches early.

Light work for Luka pic.twitter.com/YpcrN9MqOg

— Los Angeles Lakers (@Lakers) December 8, 2025

He’s leading the Lakers with 35 points per game on 47.2% shooting and tops the roster in shot attempts at nearly 23 per outing. If the Lakers win the tip, Doncic is the most likely option to pull the trigger first.

At +500, the value is too good to ignore.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +550 (Suns vs. Thunder)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a strong first basket target for Wednesday night’s Suns-Thunder clash, especially at a generous +550 price. OKC holds a slight edge at tip, winning 70.8% of jump balls compared to 66.7% for the Suns. That could prove decisive in a market where possession is everything.

This list of SGA accolades 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/Pizu2i19qx

— NBA (@NBA) December 6, 2025

SGA is expected back in the lineup after resting against Utah and should return as the focal point of the Thunder offense. He’s averaging 32.8 points per game while shooting a blistering 55.6% from the floor.

If OKC controls the tip, Gilgeous-Alexander is the most likely to get the first look. With volume, efficiency, and opportunity on his side, he profiles as a sharp value play in the first scorer market.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.