NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, December 11: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Deni Avdija +450 (Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans)

The Trail Blazers look positioned to control the early possession battle against the Pelicans, and that sets up an intriguing first basket angle tonight in New Orleans. Portland has been decent on jump balls, while New Orleans has struggled mightily in that department, so the initial touch could easily tilt toward the visitors.

Deni Avdija stands out as a strong candidate to cash this prop. As Portland’s leading scorer and primary playmaker, he’s regularly the first option in early offense sets. He’s averaging 25.8 points per game on an efficient 47.8% shooting from the field, showing he can get going quickly when touches come his way.

DENI. FREAKING. AVDIJA.

WOW!!! pic.twitter.com/poGbhNv3rX

— Portland Trail Blazers (@trailblazers) November 27, 2025

With the Blazers holding a clear jump ball edge and Avdija’s usage rate high, backing him at +450 for the first basket gives you a high‑leverage play with upside tonight.

Jamal Murray +550 (Nuggets vs. Kings)

Jamal Murray brings strong value at +550 to score the first basket when the Nuggets face the Kings tonight. Sacramento’s jump ball win rate sits at a lowly 25%, giving Denver a real shot at securing an early possession despite their own modest 47.8% rate. That opening edge puts Murray right in the mix.

The Nuggets guard has been a frequent first-strike scorer this season, putting up the opening points in 22.7% of his starts. With Murray averaging 25 points per game on 50.6% shooting and firing off 18 shots a night, he’s clearly the early-game aggressor in Denver’s lineup.

NBA Players of the Week for Week 7.

West: Jamal Murray (@nuggets)
East: Jaylen Brown (@celtics) pic.twitter.com/G3BAORUco1

— NBA (@NBA) December 8, 2025

Against a Kings’ squad that may be chasing from the jump, Murray has both the usage and efficiency to cash this first basket prop. At +550, the value stacks up well for a player who knows how to set the tone early.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.