NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, December 12: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Lauri Markkanen +490 (Jazz vs. Grizzlies)

With Zach Edey out for the Memphis Grizzlies tonight, the first basket market clearly tilts toward the Utah Jazz, specifically Lauri Markkanen. Without Edey, the Grizzlies lose their interior presence, giving the Jazz a clear advantage on the opening jump ball.

Utah has dominated the tip this season, winning nearly three-quarters of their jump balls. Memphis, already trailing in that department, loses even more momentum without Edey controlling the center position.

Markkanen stands out as the obvious Jazz option to benefit from this early possession edge. He’s been one of the most profitable first scorer picks all season, backed by elite scoring production. In games he has started, he has recorded the first points in over a quarter of them.

Lauri Markkanen is having one of the best seasons of his career

27.6 PPG
6.5 RPG
2.0 APG
47.2 FG%
36.1 3P%
90.7 FT%

What has your opinion of Lauri been this season? pic.twitter.com/I22k5IB2WX

— Jazz Lead (@JazzLead) December 11, 2025

Additionally, Markkanen is performing at an All-Star level, averaging over 27 points per night on efficient shooting. At +490 tonight, Markkanen to score the first basket offers real value.

Michael Porter Jr. +550 (Nets vs. Mavericks)

The first points edge tilts toward Brooklyn tonight as they square off against Dallas. The Nets are winning nearly two-thirds of their jump balls this season while the Mavericks lag behind at just 44%. That early possession should funnel straight to their top offensive threat.

Michael Porter Jr. has emerged as the go-to scorer for Brooklyn and enters this matchup firing on all cylinders. He’s posting 25.8 points per game on nearly 50% shooting and is seeing heavy usage with over 22 shot attempts per game in his last three starts.

Michael Porter Jr. 35 PTS, 9 REB, 3 AST, 2 STL, 14/23 FG, 5/10 3FG, 73.3% TS vs Pelicans https://t.co/iLZfGvRObN pic.twitter.com/9bZz9HTUkL

— Basketball Performances (@NBAPerformances) December 7, 2025

With volume, efficiency and the opening tip on his side, Porter Jr. at +550 is a sharp play in the first basket market.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.