NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, December 17: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Jaden McDaniels +750 (Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves)

With Zach Edey sidelined, Memphis loses a crucial edge at tipoff. Their jump ball success rate falls below 50% without him, weakening the value of any Grizzlies in the first scorer market. That opens the door for Timberwolves backers to find a sharp edge.

Jaden McDaniels stands out at +750. He’s quietly carved out a knack for striking first, leading Minnesota with 16% of first baskets in games he starts. That’s a meaningful chunk, especially on a team with higher-profile scorers in the lineup.

Jaden McDaniels ridiculous reverse layup, wow pic.twitter.com/8Dml30MUPI

— Timberwolves Clips (@WolvesClips) December 7, 2025

He’s producing consistently, averaging 15.8 points on an efficient 51.5% from the field. With the Grizzlies likely starting the night on the back foot, McDaniels offers strong value to break the scoring seal.

At this number, he’s a worthwhile target for your NBA first scorer prop bets.

Donovan Mitchell +480 (Cavaliers vs. Bulls)

Cleveland enters this matchup with a clear edge at center court. The Cavaliers are winning 63% of jump balls, a significant margin over the Bulls’ 40% mark. With Jarrett Allen handling tip-off duties, Cleveland is well-positioned to secure the first possession and set the tone early.

That puts Donovan Mitchell in a prime spot to cash first scorer tickets. Mitchell is on a tear, averaging 30.7 points on 49.4% shooting this season. He’s been relentless over the past three games, launching 26, 31, and 24 shots, including a 48-point explosion against Washington.

Donovan Mitchell's go-ahead bucket gave him 46 POINTS 🤯

He finished with 48 as the Cavs complete the comeback and get the win! pic.twitter.com/a528EEkXIF

— NBA (@NBA) December 13, 2025

Mitchell leads the Cavaliers with 21.6 field goal attempts per game, and that volume isn’t slowing down. With Cleveland likely to control the opening possession and Mitchell’s aggressive mindset, he’s a strong play at +480 to get on the board first against a vulnerable Chicago defense.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.