NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, December 18: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Ace Bailey +700 (Lakers vs. Jazz)

The Utah Jazz are well positioned to score the first points against the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday night, and that opens the door for a high-upside first basket prop. Utah ranks among the NBA’s best jump ball teams, winning 76% of tip-offs this season, the highest mark in the league.

With early possession likely, rookie Ace Bailey stands out as a compelling value play. Bailey has grown more confident with each passing game and has taken on a more aggressive offensive role. He has attempted at least 12 field goals in three of his last four games, signaling increased usage to open games.

ACE BAILEY OFF HIS OWN MISS 😳✈️

UTA hosting DAL on NBA League Pass… tap to watch: https://t.co/ZQasTTyJGx pic.twitter.com/w4PgWuH1R1

— NBA (@NBA) December 16, 2025

On the season, Bailey is averaging 10 points per game while shooting 43.6% from the field. Given Utah’s strong tip-off success and Bailey’s expanding role, the +700 odds present an attractive risk-reward opportunity for the first basket bet.

Desmond Bane +600 (Magic vs. Nuggets)

Desmond Bane is a strong option in the NBA first scorer market when the Orlando Magic face the Denver Nuggets on Thursday night. The Magic shooting guard has been in excellent form, averaging 19 points per game while shooting an efficient 44.6% from the field.

Bane’s recent production underscores his aggressive approach. He has erupted for at least 37 points in three of his last seven games and has shown no hesitation offensively, consistently attacking when opportunities present themselves.

DESMOND BANE DID HIS THING FOR ORLANDO:

37 PTS (15 in 4Q)
6 REB
5 AST
6 3PM

The Magic will play the winner of NYK/TOR in the @emirates NBA Cup Semifinals on Saturday 🔥 pic.twitter.com/FC569HWryF

— NBA (@NBA) December 10, 2025

The matchup further boosts his case. Orlando has won better than 70% of its jump balls this season, while Denver sits below 45%, giving the Magic a clear edge to control the opening possession. With early usage likely and Bane looking to score quickly, he profiles well to open the scoring. Add the nice price of +600, and it’s easy to see why this is one of the best first basket bets tonight.

Dillon Brooks +650 (Warriors vs. Suns)

The Phoenix Suns are in a strong position to control the opening possession against the Golden State Warriors, one of the league’s weakest jump ball teams. Golden State has won just 33.3% of tip-offs this season, while Phoenix sits at a solid 69.2%, creating a clear edge for the Suns to score first.

With early possession likely, Dillon Brooks stands out as a high-upside option to open the scoring. Brooks is enjoying a strong season, averaging 21.9 points per game while shooting 44.9% from the field.

DILLON BROOKS DUNKED ON LEBRON AND MOCKED HIS SHRUG CELLY 😭😭😭 pic.twitter.com/C0O9IFiTNH

— BrickCenter (@BrickCenter_) December 2, 2025

Never hesitant to attack offensively, Brooks is attempting 17.6 field goals per game, highlighting his willingness to look for his shot early. Given the matchup advantage and his aggressive scoring mindset, Brooks profiles well to record the first basket.

At +650, the odds provide appealing value for a first player basket wager in this matchup.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.