NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, December 19: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Bam Adebayo +500 (Heat vs. Celtics)

Bam Adebayo at +500 is a sharp first basket target in the Heat’s matchup with the Celtics. Boston has struggled mightily on tip-offs, winning just 34.6% this season. Miami, on the other hand, controls the opening possession over half the time, giving Adebayo a good shot at striking early.

Climb the ladder, Bam Adebayo 📈 https://t.co/wJKnk31NAG pic.twitter.com/oWjnX2iQ0m

— NBA (@NBA) October 31, 2025

He’s a versatile scorer who operates well from the post and midrange, averaging 18.7 points on 47.3% shooting. Importantly, he’s attempted at least 13 shots in six of his last seven games, showing he’s active from the jump.

With the Heat likely to open with the ball and Adebayo consistently involved early, the +500 number brings solid value.

Donovan Mitchell +400 (Bulls vs. Cavaliers)

Donovan Mitchell at +400 looks like a solid first basket target in Friday’s Bulls at Cavaliers matchup. Cleveland should control the opening possession, as the Cavaliers win a hefty 64.3% of jump balls compared to Chicago’s 38.5% success rate. That early edge should put Mitchell in position for the game’s first scoring opportunity.

There goes Spida…

He's got a game-high 15 points for CLE!

Tight game in Chi-Town on NBA League Pass. pic.twitter.com/rE0QdJCesv

— NBA (@NBA) December 18, 2025

Mitchell has been the engine for the Cavs all season, leading the team in points and field goal attempts. He’s averaging a robust 30.7 points on 49.3% shooting, showing both volume and efficiency. Even more encouraging for first basket bettors is his recent usage, with at least 23 field goal attempts in each of his last four games and six of his past seven.

There’s a health caveat here. If Mitchell is out due to illness, this play will be voided. But if he’s active, +400 on Mitchell to hit the first basket offers attractive value.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +600 (Thunder vs. Timberwolves)

Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander at +600 offers excellent value as a first basket play in the Thunder versus Timberwolves matchup. He is normally priced around +450 for first scorer markets so +600 represents a bet worth backing on the dynamic playmaker. Oklahoma City will look to get him involved early and with that price you get extra bang for your buck.

SGA lost his footing but still found a way to score ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/UCQcPoRvKp

— NBA Philippines (@NBA_Philippines) December 19, 2025

SGA has been on fire this season averaging 32.4 points on an efficient 55.9% shooting clip. He has been ultra aggressive of late logging 47 field goal attempts over his past two games and showing no hesitation to attack right out of the gate.

He has also been consistent in putting up big scoring nights regularly burying at least 26 points in eleven straight starts. With that kind of early usage and a strong chance to be the first option on offense Gilgeous‑Alexander at +600 stands out among NBA first basket picks.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.